so, what are your opinions based on suvi so far? was there a puff now, or two cmes, fast, slow, im confused.  Only thing i know is that 2nd looked faster 

1 minute ago, NEAurora said:

Just for fun/context, by my math, between 3663 and 3664, the UV flux has resisted above M-class nearly 45% of the time during the last three days, and almost 25% of the time during the last seven.  Pretty neat.

wow! 

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

@Calder what about the dimmings?   

 

Btw, suvi is not blurry for me.   someone here mentioned it being blurry?

Dimming on the second CME looks meh in my opinion but still best to wait until Demon dimming updates to see it more clearly. And as always wait for LASCO too.

I only saw SDO looking a little drunk not SUVI.

2 minutes ago, Calder said:

Dimming on the second CME looks meh in my opinion but still best to wait until Demon dimming updates to see it more clearly. And as always wait for LASCO too.

I only saw SDO looking a little drunk not SUVI.

lul thanks for the picture   Now i get it!

 

And the first? Why the 2nd meh? Yep, waiting game. stereo isnt updated either, only shows the filament eruption earlier

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

And the first? Why the 2nd meh?

IMO the first had better dimming although it was slower than the second. The first also appeared like it might be slightly more earth directed than the second. Overall, both seemed like rather small CMEs mostly SW directed. Have to say that this is all just speculation though since we have very little to go on. There might not be any earth directed components. We won’t know for sure until we get LASCO images.

55 minutes ago, KW2P said:

Hahaha. It looks like motion blur, but that can't be it.

I used up all my likes. Need to buy more.

 

Me too 24 hours ago 😝

Edited May 8, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

It's the satellite shaking with excitement as we finally have an interesting active region 

Btw, with AR3668 being so close to AR3664 is it possible that the two regions can merge together or will they remain as two separate regions?

(Correction to my license plate commend: AR3664 not AR3663 but both would be nice xD)

Edited May 8, 20241 yr by Adohran

9 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Btw, with AR2668 being so close to AR3664 is it possible that the two regions can merge together or will they remain as two separate regions?

NOAA still has them as 2

 

@Calder lasco updated, 1h after the first flare. I don’t see much hbu?

 

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

NOAA still has them as 2

 

@Calder lasco updated, 1h after the first flare. I don’t see much hbu?

 

That is yet another full halo CME, although asymmetric. Third one of the day!

1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said:

That is yet another full halo CME, although asymmetric. Third one of the day!

Is it fast enough to catch up with the others? Is it faint too like the 2nd? (to ME it looks faint and not extremely dense, but im not good) 

Does asymmetric in this case mean, the bulk goes somewhere else?

Some rudimentary lines from what I think is the angle of the CME 

Drumroll please.  SFI at 23:00 utc?? 
263.  Was 227. Earlier. Wowie. Flare enhanced sure,  but wow! 

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is it fast enough to catch up with the others? Is it faint too like the 2nd? (to ME it looks faint and not extremely dense, but im not good)

Perhaps. Seems a hair faster than the previous two, and both of those will be clearing out space behind them for this third one to travel with ease. 

 

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Does asymmetric in this case mean, the bulk goes somewhere else?

Typically yes. In this case, most is to the southwest, but plenty of material encompasses the entire disk.

Just now, Landon Moeller said:

Perhaps. Seems a hair faster than the previous two, and both of those will be clearing out space behind them for this third one to travel with ease. 

 

Typically yes. In this case, most is to the southwest, but plenty of material encompasses the entire disk.

Thank you! Does it change the forecast of the other 2?

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! Does it change the forecast of the other 2?

It shouldn’t

1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said:

It shouldn’t

But wouldn’t it bump up the impact or change it? If it cannibalizes. Or if it doesn’t, if it impacts later?

22 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

Perhaps. Seems a hair faster than the previous two, and both of those will be clearing out space behind them for this third one to travel with ease. 

 

Typically yes. In this case, most is to the southwest, but plenty of material encompasses the entire disk.

Just saw the halo. Wow.  Does look promising! 

35 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

That is yet another full halo CME, although asymmetric. Third one of the day!

IMO we don't know yet it is full halo or not. Plasma seen to the east isn't from 3rd X1 but seems after filament eruption placed to the east from centre around 18Z. Second IMO: CME after 3rd X1 seems much narrow than previous two. But maybe we're talking about different CMEs

2 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

IMO we don't know yet it is full halo or not. Plasma seen to the east isn't from 3rd X1 but seems after filament eruption placed to the east from centre around 18Z. Second IMO: CME after 3rd X1 seems much narrow than previous two. But maybe we're talking about different CMEs

The third CME is definitely a full halo, but its eastern portion is extremely faint. The only way to see it is via difference imagery and a loop to show the movement of material

Just now, Landon Moeller said:

The third CME is definitely a full halo, but its eastern portion is extremely faint. The only way to see it is via difference imagery and a loop to show the movement of material

Is said eastern portion the one that’s gonna impact or are we gonna be in a more denser part? I saw it’s a bit asymmetrical. To me it looks faint on C2, like the 2nd CME in the morning. 🌸🍀

 

gonna get some sleep y’all ❤️ have a great night 

Just looked at it with JHelioviewer. I do agree somewhat with the full halo but the main ejecta seems to be at a 210° angle. (Which is just my approximate)

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Adohran

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is said eastern portion the one that’s gonna impact or are we gonna be in a more denser part? I saw it’s a bit asymmetrical. To me it looks faint on C2, like the 2nd CME in the morning. 🌸🍀

 

gonna get some sleep y’all ❤️ have a great night 

You too!

1 minute ago, Adohran said:

Just looked at it with JHelioviewer. I do agree somewhat with the full halo but the main ejecta seems to be at a 210° angle. (Which is just my approximate)

I don’t know how much will hit us or anything, but this may help you. Some say full halo, some say partial.. 😂

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I don’t know how much will hit us or anything, but this may help you. Some say full halo, some say partial.. 😂

He is just saying partial because the bulk only encompasses about half of the disk, but there is a shock going all the way around

Ben has forecast a 5% chance of kill shot event 😕