tniickck Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) M2M office predicts Kp4-7 Edited April 12 by tniickck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) If it hits europe again we can probably expect another hilarious spaceweather meme. Trump may indeed have to launch some nukes at our sun @tniickck! Haha ( referring to an April Fool’s joke perpetrated by the staff in 2023) Edited April 13 by hamateur 1953 Reference 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 16 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: If it hits europe again we can probably expect another hilarious spaceweather meme. Trump may indeed have to launch some nukes at our sun @tniickck! Haha ( referring to an April Fool’s joke perpetrated by the staff in 2023) it's gonna be cloud in Moscow again so i will probably suffer from not being able to see aurora Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 31 minutes ago, tniickck said: it's gonna be cloud in Moscow again so i will probably suffer from not being able to see aurora Sorry Dude! Better luck next time! Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 C flares can produce KPs of 7? That's crazy. Does it have to do with the amount of ejecta in the cme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 47 minutes ago, coinpeace said: C flares can produce KPs of 7? That's crazy. Does it have to do with the amount of ejecta in the cme? From what I understand, yes. Coronal mass ejection - Wikipedia (More information here too.) "The average mass ejected is 1.6×1012 kg (3.5×1012 lb)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 The flare is unassociated with the CME(s). There were filament eruptions. A faster filament in the north-central disk launched east and we will likely take a glancing blow. A second filament is what launched on the 12th from the southwest-central disk. It looks to be slower, but we may get a more direct impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The flare is unassociated with the CME(s). There were filament eruptions. A faster filament in the north-central disk launched east and we will likely take a glancing blow. A second filament is what launched on the 12th from the southwest-central disk. It looks to be slower, but we may get a more direct impact. So I'm pretty well versed on how to look for aurora, but I'm still a bit new to the helioscience so forgive me if I ask a bunch of eli5 style questions but if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly, the impact on the magnetosphere, can be attributed to a combo of factors like the mass and speed of the cme? Are cme's associated with bigger flares because big ones are more likely than small ones to blast them? If this feels like it belongs in another thread pls help mod I'm a bit weak in my forum skills. Also I have no idea how solar protons events work but they'd be useful for catching surprise auroral displays. Edited April 13 by coinpeace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 42 minutes ago, coinpeace said: So I'm pretty well versed on how to look for aurora, but I'm still a bit new to the helioscience so forgive me if I ask a bunch of eli5 style questions but if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly, the impact on the magnetosphere, can be attributed to a combo of factors like the mass and speed of the cme? Are cme's associated with bigger flares because big ones are more likely than small ones to blast them? If this feels like it belongs in another thread pls help mod I'm a bit weak in my forum skills. Also I have no idea how solar protons events work but they'd be useful for catching surprise auroral displays. The only events that produce geomagnetic storms are Coronal Holes and Coronal Mass Ejections. CMEs that normally arrive at Earth come from eruptive solar flares or filament eruptions. The strongest CMEs come from powerful eruptive flares. What is good for geomagnetic activity are high velocities, high densities, and a strong and/or consistent negative IMF Bz component. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 10 hours ago, coinpeace said: C flares can produce KPs of 7? That's crazy. Does it have to do with the amount of ejecta in the cme? even Kp9-. surprise! C flares can produce strong CMEs but with a lower chance than for example M and X flares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) Yeah, a good example is the March 2015 aurora. It was produced by a C9 event. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=03&year=2015 Edited April 13 by libmar96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) 20 hours ago, coinpeace said: the impact on the magnetosphere, can be attributed to a combo of factors like the mass and speed of the cme? Yes, the density and speed of the CME are among the most important factors, but perhaps even more important is the component of their magnetic field that is aligned with the geomagnetic field, the Bz; the strongest geomagnetic activity typically occurs when there's a hit by a CME that is adequately dense and fast and the Bz is negative for a prolonged period of time. 20 hours ago, coinpeace said: Are cme's associated with bigger flares because big ones are more likely than small ones to blast them? Typically that is indeed the case, but filament eruptions tend not be associated with as much flaring, nor are they typically as strong, as they are already existing filaments above the surface that get released rather than eruptions from the lower layers of the photosphere and chromosphere. They can still definitely produce significant geomagnetic conditions under the right circumstances, though. 20 hours ago, coinpeace said: I have no idea how solar protons events work The most explosive eruptions launch a lot of highly energetic particles, including lots of high-energy protons, and a Solar particle event is when the amount of sufficiently high-energy protons per unit of time detected near Earth reaches a certain threshold. Edited April 13 by Philalethes bad grandma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 What's taking it so long? It's gonna be dark here soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 (edited) On 4/13/2024 at 8:23 AM, Philalethes said: Yes, the density and speed of the CME are among the most important factors, but perhaps even more important is the component of their magnetic field that is aligned with the geomagnetic field, the Bz; the strongest geomagnetic activity typically occurs when there's a hit by a CME that is adequately dense and fast and the Bz is negative for a prolonged period of time. Typically that is indeed the case, but filament eruptions tend not be associated with as much flaring, nor are they typically as strong, as they are already existing filaments above the surface that get released rather than eruptions from the lower layers of the photosphere and chromosphere. They can still definitely produce significant geomagnetic conditions under the right circumstances, though. The most explosive eruptions launch a lot of highly energetic particles, including lots of high-energy protons, and a Solar particle event is when the amount of sufficiently high-energy protons per unit of time detected near Earth reaches a certain threshold. @Philalethes Granny stomped on it. ( jk). Maybe @Jesterface23 has a clue? Edit. It looks like a few precursors may have hit already. Keep watching density and personally I check the Magnetometer of Kiruna for some lead time ( not much). Presently we are slightly negative BZ. (good). Good luck. Mike Edited April 15 by hamateur 1953 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 The first filament may have launched well off at at an odd angle and may not arrive. The second filament is still coming. Pretty much at the time I made my forecast, I was surprised at how early so many of the other forecast were for the arrival. The CMEs were very dull in coronagraph imagery, so that is certainly a factor for all forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 2 hours ago, Jay-B said: What's taking it so long? It's gonna be dark here soon! Not every flare = something to talk about, I'm afraid. Moreover, flares are just one component of activity; sometimes, filament eruptions don't produce enough x-ray energy to be "picked up" by observers. The Earthmost-facing spot was spitting little fart packets over the past few days, but I would not hold out hopes for a traditional CME arrival. 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: @Philalethes Granny stomped on it. ( jk). Maybe @Jesterface23 has a clue? Edit. It looks like a few precursors may have hit already. Keep watching density and personally I check the Magnetometer of Kiruna for some lead time ( not much). Presently we are slightly negative BZ. (good). Good luck. Mike Not that it's a big deal, but I've noticed you're assigning expertise to other users, seemingly at-random. I trust @Jesterface23 and @Philalethes to deliver when prompted, of course, but I would shy away from propping anyone up as experts of something of which we're all equally novice and ignorant. It closes the floor, is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 (edited) Only based on my personal observations of their past accuracies naturally and honestly, id spaced my already known fact of their time zones. Haha. Cme arrival times are difficult at best to predict, as you probably know. Arrivals at Lagrange one the best we have, but there are so many other factors to consider, it’s usually a dice roll anyway. DST doesn’t seem to cut it either for me. All personal biases I hold. Mike. In any event, I didn’t intend to exclude anyone, people chime in here at will as they should, in an open forum as we have here. Mike Edited April 15 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 39 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Only based on my personal observations of their past accuracies naturally and honestly, id spaced my already known fact of their time zones. Haha. Cme arrival times are difficult at best to predict, as you probably know. Arrivals at Lagrange one the best we have, but there are so many other factors to consider, it’s usually a dice roll anyway. DST doesn’t seem to cut it either for me. All personal biases I hold. Mike. In any event, I didn’t intend to exclude anyone, people chime in here at will as they should, in an open forum as we have here. Mike While I certainly agree with everything stated here, I await the alignment of these sentiments with your openness to hear all input on complex-ish situations, and not seemingly place hierarchy upon the prompts to others to give their input. Yes, they're usually on point, but playing hall monitor is really rubbing me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bry Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Is solar wind density and temperatures spiking an indicator of the filament glancing earth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 1 hour ago, Christopher Shriver said: While I certainly agree with everything stated here, I await the alignment of these sentiments with your openness to hear all input on complex-ish situations, and not seemingly place hierarchy upon the prompts to others to give their input. Yes, they're usually on point, but playing hall monitor is really rubbing me the wrong way. It really was a genuine attempt to be helpful. I’m sorry you misunderstood my motives though. Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 4 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: It really was a genuine attempt to be helpful. I’m sorry you misunderstood my motives though. Mike. I'm sure I've misunderstood your motives because they are not clear. It is important to signal-boost others, I fully agree - it is the frequency with which you intervene and seemingly seek to prevent "amateur" input, while propping up the "reliable" input. This defeats the purpose of a forum. I hope you think on this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 6 minutes ago, Christopher Shriver said: I'm sure I've misunderstood your motives because they are not clear. It is important to signal-boost others, I fully agree - it is the frequency with which you intervene and seemingly seek to prevent "amateur" input, while propping up the "reliable" input. This defeats the purpose of a forum. I hope you think on this tonight. I may, it is the first time this has come up tbh other than the fact that while we may agree on many aspects we might disagree on others. Please feel free to contact me via pm or the administrators at your discretion. Mike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: I may, it is the first time this has come up tbh other than the fact that while we may agree on many aspects we might disagree on others. Please feel free to contact me via pm or the administrators at your discretion. Mike I'm probably just being a curmudgeon. Sorry. Much respect for how you conduct yourself. This to me is just small stuff and I will trust your maturity lets you see the underlying point, in spite of my unceremonious means of calling attention to it. Thank you for your conduct and wisdom, nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 No sweat. We all have idiosyncrasies too. And some of those irritate others. My sister and I can only live together for about two weeks before we wanna kill each other!! No big deal. Mike/Hagrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sieffre Involution Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 So we can predict when stuff will hit in December 2024 now? ;-) just kidding on the date format thing. :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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