hamateur 1953 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: NASA, STCE etcetera are playing dart. I calculate. They were wrong with the minimum… make your bets… Scott McIntosh refused to bet with me… I don’t bet anymore Patrick. It really caused a lot of issues when I did a couple of years ago, causing Sam to finally lock the topic, the smart guys @3gMike and the rest naturally decided to keep their pistols holstered. Anyway Patrick, it seems to me that you already are “all in” as they say in poker. With June 2023 unless you have reconsidered at this point. I should also add in your favour that I have seen some really fascinating orbital charts going back to 1970 and possible correlations with solar activity. I haven’t the experience to criticize them either positively or negatively, but it was interesting to look at the stuff nonetheless. I should add that only the eight planets were diagrammed in what I was viewing. The asteroid belt and other large objects were excluded. Edited March 31 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10.7 Solar flux 131.7 at 17:00 March 31. Low solar activity coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: 10.7 Solar flux 131.7 at 17:00 March 31. Low solar activity coming? Observed F10.7 210.7 at 20:00 on Mar 23. High Solar activity coming? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Observed flux 18:00 UTC Dec 14 2023 852.3. Not quite high enough for us hams, but this is a low-moderate cycle after all. 😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 10 uren geleden, Philalethes zei: Observed F10.7 210.7 at 20:00 on Mar 23. High Solar activity coming? You should know that we only use the adjusted for our calculations🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Ok. Yes. For the same time period and day NRC listed 825.9. Definitely a significant reduction. All better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 In other news: The 1K SN dropped to 75 on March 31... This implies a 10.7 solar flux from 102... It was 133.4... Conclusion: further drop expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: You should know that we only use the adjusted for our calculations🤪 That I agree with. 209.3 just didn't seem to have the same shock value as 210.7; after all, we're trying to appeal to emotions here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Op 30/3/2024 om 05:21, hamateur 1953 zei: Not for a long while will we have a spotless sun. Or dip below 120 sfi or so. Solar Soft just posted an incoming active region N 25 E 75 and at around C-8 in activity as we continue our climb towards solar maximum. Should receive its SWPC number with that longitude unless in error by lmsal. I see enough cool stuff in 131 angstroms to be encouraged for next week. Looks promising imho Hagrid doesn’t have an account but if he wants his treats, he’d better agree with me. 😆 Not under 120? Mmmmm 1K SN was 63 April 1... This implies a 10.7 solar flux from 95.... It was 120... And 118.8 at 23:00🤣 Seems you will loose this bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) Hey Patrick. I don’t bet or speculate anymore as I stated above. Heck if it plummets to 100 SFI our recovery is virtually assured. Edited April 2 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 4 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei: Hey Patrick. I don’t bet or speculate anymore as I stated above. Heck if it plummets to 100 SFI our recovery is virtually assured. Even the astronomers are afraid of betting against me... Why could that be?🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maurizio Marsigli Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 On 30/3/2024 at 06:55, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Il flusso di 10,7 diminuirà rapidamente perché il rapporto con le macchie solari ad alta risoluzione è rovinato... Sotto 120 in 3 giorni è una possibilità... Now 119sfu and with a Lunt50, without visible Spots 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Op 30/3/2024 om 06:55, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: The 10.7 flux will dip rapidly because the relation with the high resolution sunspots is screwed... Under 120 in 3 days is a possibility... Yep... got that one right 🤣🙃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc Vandemaele Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) Op 30/3/2024 om 22:52, Sieffre Involution zei: I see 1 spot and 1 wannabe spot lol still no region number - but can't be spotless day, I see these, and like I said before just cause stuff rotates away from us I.M.O. doesn't make them no longer spots lol. Unless you want me to think China doesn't exist since I am in the U.S. and don't see them lol And more activity is coming... Edited April 2 by Luc Vandemaele layout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 30 minutes ago, Luc Vandemaele said: And more activity is coming... Yep, looks whatever is incoming there is going to keep us from complete spotlessness for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loganas Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 21 hours ago, Philalethes said: Yep, looks whatever is incoming there is going to keep us from complete spotlessness for now. Yup definitely not spotless yet, was kind of looking forward to such an unusual occurrence. We were so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1KSN 94 on April 3. this gives a 10.7 flux around 112 meausured: 111.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now