Next spotless day soon?

[Loganas]

With the active regions on the east limb rotating out of view soon, could we be seeing a spotless day soon? It doesn't look like much is coming on the west limb, we'll just have to wait and see though. Thoughts?

[Philalethes]

57 minutes ago, Loganas said:

With the active regions on the east limb rotating out of view soon, could we be seeing a spotless day soon? It doesn't look like much is coming on the west limb, we'll just have to wait and see though. Thoughts?

It's a possibility, but it would definitely be unusual. Apart from a single spotless day not long after the SC24 maximum (on 2014-07-17), you have to go all the way back to SC18 to find a cycle which had any spotless day at all within 2 years of either side of the maximum. Restrict it to 1 year and you have to go all the way back to SC15 (again except for that single day in 2014). For SC6-SC18 there were typically a few spotless days within 2 years of maximum, but still not that common. If you extend it to 3 years on each side of maximum you get a lot more spotless days, but at that point you're covering more than half of an entire average cycle length.

Here is a paste of all the spotless days within 1, 2, and 3 years of maximum in each cycle respectively.

I'm guessing we'll likely see some spots form somewhere between the current ones rotate fully out of view, but as it looks now most of the surface does indeed seem spotless.

[MeteoLatvia]

Our last hopes are on regions 3617 and 3619, as they will provide an additional 1-2 days after region 3615 turns out of view, but anyway - we need new regions by around March 31 based on rough calculations of how much longer current regions will be visible on disc.  

[hamateur 1953]

33 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

Our last hopes are on regions 3617 and 3619, as they will provide an additional 1-2 days after region 3615 turns out of view, but anyway - we need new regions by around March 31 based on rough calculations of how much longer current regions will be visible on disc.  

Looking at the east incoming limb in 131 after you guys scared me a bit, all along incoming top to bottom  it seems encouraging to me anyway. Whew!   Mike 

35 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

Our last hopes are on regions 3617 and 3619, as they will provide an additional 1-2 days after region 3615 turns out of view, but anyway - we need new regions by around March 31 based on rough calculations of how much longer current regions will be visible on disc.  

 

Oops. Double entry there!

[AndrewB]

The last day without sunspots had place in June 2022, which is not so long ago - but it was only 1 day, so we are actually in our third year without blank Sun (approximately;)). Therefore, I think that if spotless days will occur in 2024, it may tell us more about where we are in the cycle (again, approx). If a spotless days occurs before the end of 2024, it can be assumed that either the maximum has passed or that we dived a little deeper before the second peak - because it is rather unlikely that the year of solar max (which 2024 potentially is) will bring spotless days, especially since this cycle is stronger than the previous one.

Edited March 29 by AndrewB

[Sieffre Involution]

I still don't quite understand how it can be a spotless day, the regions may have moved off what we can see, but they are still in existence lol  

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

The 10.7 Solar flux needs to drop 80 points to have a spotless Sun!

[hamateur 1953]

Not for a long while will we have a spotless sun. Or dip below 120 sfi or so.  Solar Soft just posted an incoming active region N 25 E 75 and at around C-8  in activity as we continue our climb towards solar maximum. Should receive its SWPC number with that longitude unless in error by lmsal.   I see enough cool stuff in 131 angstroms to be encouraged for next week.  Looks promising imho  Hagrid doesn’t have an account but if he wants his treats, he’d better agree with me.  😆

Edited March 30 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Not for a long while will we have a spotless sun. Or dip below 120 sfi or so.  Solar Soft just posted an incoming active region N 25 E 75 and at around C-8  in activity as we continue our climb towards solar maximum. Should receive its SWPC number with that longitude unless in error by lmsal.   I see enough cool stuff in 131 angstroms to be encouraged for next week.  Looks promising imho  Hagrid doesn’t have an account but if he wants his treats, he’d better agree with me.  😆

The 10.7 flux will dip rapidly because the relation with the high resolution sunspots is screwed... Under 120 in 3 days is a possibility...

[hamateur 1953]

35 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The 10.7 flux will dip rapidly because the relation with the high resolution sunspots is screwed... Under 120 in 3 days is a possibility...

Have you revised your theory since last November?  If my memory isn’t failing me yet, subsequent to your prediction of a dive in SFI we instead for better than two weeks logged an impressive increase.  Anyway, three days isn’t too long to wait Patrick.   Edit. How are the little spots doing btw?  Jan keeps good records. I will take a look.  Jan hasn’t updated his outlook in some time. However his 365 charts show a dip across the board one might expect with the lull in activity we are just now coming out of imho.  

Edited March 30 by hamateur 1953
1k and 2k and “screwed” relations

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, hamateur 1953 zei:

Have you revised your theory since last November?  If my memory isn’t failing me yet, subsequent to your prediction of a dive in SFI we instead for better than two weeks logged an impressive increase.  Anyway, three days isn’t too long to wait Patrick.   Edit. How are the little spots doing btw?  Jan keeps good records. I will take a look.  Jan hasn’t updated his outlook in some time. However his 365 charts show a dip across the board one might expect with the lull in activity we are just now coming out of imho.  

Facts

1. 2KSSN, 1KSSN, 10.7 flux and ISN all show forward looking dips with 365 day smoothing... No increase visible. 2KSSN forward looking indicator more then 10 percent down from maximum...

2. The polar fields have switched: no new maximum coming...

3. 1K SN was 135 March 28. This implies a 10.7 flux around 135. The flux was 172.7... 

4. If 1K SN dipped further March 29... Flux will go down 15-20 points March 30...

Just got the update....

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 148) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 115) SDO/HMI images.

1K SN = 115

This implies a 10.7 flux around 125... It was 167.3 March 29... Drop 15- 20 points coming...

Edited March 30 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[hamateur 1953]

Yes Patrick.  I would anticipate that much, given as 3615 is leaving the flux  scene to reassemble in a better cme producing configuration we would all hope.  😇  See ya in three days. Sfi was around 170. You said initially drop to 120 now it’s only a drop to 150?  140 to 150 I would expect, no theories required. Just observations of activity. Our sun really doesn’t care what either of us think btw.  Just another observation……

Edited March 30 by hamateur 1953
Craziness. What else?? 😂

[Parabolic]

14 hours ago, Loganas said:

With the active regions on the east limb rotating out of view soon, could we be seeing a spotless day soon? It doesn't look like much is coming on the west limb, we'll just have to wait and see though. Thoughts?

AR3615 will fully transit the west limb in roughly 24-48 hours. There is still two spots a ways behind it as well. Also, there are new regions just now peaking over the East limb as we speak that are fairly active. I'm taking a guess here but I don't think we'll see a spotless day for about 6 months to a year plus.

 

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Yes Patrick.  I would anticipate that much, given as 3615 is leaving the flux  scene to reassemble in a better cme producing configuration we would all hope.  😇  See ya in three days. Sfi was around 170. You said initially drop to 120 now it’s only a drop to 150?  140 to 150 I would expect, no theories required. Just observations of activity. Our sun really doesn’t care what either of us think btw.  Just another observation……

I'm going to predict a decent CME and proton event within the next 48 hours based on 3615's erratic coronal loops. 😅

Edited March 30 by Parabolic
East limb not Easter limb haha

[hamateur 1953]

4 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

AR3615 will fully transit the west limb in roughly 24-48 hours. There is still two spots a ways behind it as well. Also, there are new regions just now peaking over the East limb as we speak that are fairly active. I'm taking a guess here but I don't think we'll see a spotless day for about 6 months to a year plus.

 

Thank you for returning to the topic! Haha 

[Philalethes]

11 hours ago, AndrewB said:

The last day without sunspots had place in June 2022, which is not so long ago - but it was only 1 day, so we are actually in our third year without blank Sun (approximately;)). Therefore, I think that if spotless days will occur in 2024, it may tell us more about where we are in the cycle (again, approx). If a spotless days occurs before the end of 2024, it can be assumed that either the maximum has passed or that we dived a little deeper before the second peak - because it is rather unlikely that the year of solar max (which 2024 potentially is) will bring spotless days, especially since this cycle is stronger than the previous one.

I can't find this day in the records, although there were a couple of days in June of 2022 with an SN of only 3 and 7 respectively. Last spotless days that I can find are in 2021, Dec 9 to 11.

But yes, spotless days at this point in the cycle could indeed signify that we're e.g. in the Gnevyshev gap between two peaks, which doesn't seem too unlikely at this point. It would definitely still be unusual though, and quite interesting if it were to occur.

[MeteoLatvia]

Yes, seems like there is a small region emerging in the NE part of the visible disc. Too early to tell what will happen, I'm pretty sure it will get it's number and as @Parabolic said - there are also regions behind the E limb so for now looks like definitely safe from spotless day.

[AndrewB]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

I can't find this day in the records, although there were a couple of days in June of 2022 with an SN of only 3 and 7 respectively. Last spotless days that I can find are in 2021, Dec 9 to 11.

But yes, spotless days at this point in the cycle could indeed signify that we're e.g. in the Gnevyshev gap between two peaks, which doesn't seem too unlikely at this point. It would definitely still be unusual though, and quite interesting if it were to occur.

I meant June 8th, 2022. The sunspot number decrease to 0, and this state lasted less than one full day, but it still occurred. This spotless day is included in both the spaceweather.com archive and the forum archive. Regards

Edited March 30 by AndrewB

[Philalethes]

15 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

I meant June 8th, 2022. The sunspot number decrease to 0, and this state lasted less than one full day, but it still occurred. This spotless day is included in both the spaceweather.com archive and the forum archive. Regards

That's interesting, given how SILSO lists the daily SN as 3 on that day. I did check the imagery in the archive (both here and the entire day in the SDO archive), and it definitely does look like it's completely spotless in the first half of the day, so I guess you could certainly make an argument for that counting; spots did develop during the latter half of the day though, so I'm assuming that's why it's not listed as 0 in the SILSO data (and probably why it's listed as 0 in the archive here, since that's generally based on a snapshot at one part of the day if I'm not mistaken, and/or perhaps on provisional data).

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

As predicted 10.7 flux down to 141.3 at 17:00 😊

[hamateur 1953]

I

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

As predicted 10.7 flux down to 141.3 at 17:00 😊

At least now I know you are using the center column which is typically lower by a few units.  Hams generally use observed flux at Penticton BC.  It will increase naturally over the next week or so.  It may dip lower. We are still months away from solar max.  Me and Hagrid ain’t sweating it at all.  See ya. Mike🐈‍⬛

[Sieffre Involution]

I see 1 spot and 1 wannabe spot lol still no region number - but can't be spotless day, I see these, and like I said before just cause stuff rotates away from us I.M.O. doesn't make them no longer spots lol.  Unless you want me to think China doesn't exist since I am in the U.S. and don't see them lol 

[Philalethes]

18 minutes ago, Sieffre Involution said:

like I said before just cause stuff rotates away from us I.M.O. doesn't make them no longer spots

The sunspot number refers to the spots on the visible disc, so when talking about a spotless day it's a day when there are no visible spots from our perspective.

But yes, those are indeed a couple of small spots, and as long as they remain around we won't be having any spotless day (they could disappear, though).

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

11 uren geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

I

At least now I know you are using the center column which is typically lower by a few units.  Hams generally use observed flux at Penticton BC.  It will increase naturally over the next week or so.  It may dip lower. We are still months away from solar max.  Me and Hagrid ain’t sweating it at all.  See ya. Mike🐈‍⬛

The 1K SN high resolution was 107 on March 30, implying a 10.7 flux around 120... More downward pressure to come?

[hamateur 1953]

I thought ya preferred the WEF verb Degrowth Patrick?  Haha. Perhaps , however, I wouldn’t start applauding the coming death of SC 25 for six months at least.  Your fellow Belgians at STCE seem far more optimistic and are expecting the second peak to exceed your SC 25 candidate last June and SWPC seems to agree as well. I can understand now why you may have been more than a little apprehensive about disclosing planetary and asteroid orbital interactions as methods of predicting future solar activity. I also can easily see the temptation to include the 11.9 yr orbit  of Jupiter, it’s pretty darn close to a typical cycle length.  I’m skeptical for other reasons mainly the unpredictable nature of individual active regions and naturally their contributions to baseline flux.  Anyway in two years we both will hopefully know a lot more.  Meanwhile, we should see the incoming regions continue to drop in average latitude The last spot-check of eight ARs put us at 15.11 degrees average.  Still about where we were last June, giving me further encouragement with regard to our progress toward Solar Max.  The northern pole may indeed have finally reversed but that still gives us a good six months of development imho.   Mike. 

Edited March 31 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, hamateur 1953 zei:

I thought ya preferred the WEF verb Degrowth Patrick?  Haha. Perhaps , however, I wouldn’t start applauding the coming death of SC 25 for six months at least.  Your fellow Belgians at STCE seem far more optimistic and are expecting the second peak to exceed your SC 25 candidate last June and SWPC seems to agree as well. I can understand now why you may have been more than a little apprehensive about disclosing planetary and asteroid orbital interactions as methods of predicting future solar activity. I also can easily see the temptation to include the 11.9 yr orbit  of Jupiter, it’s pretty darn close to a typical cycle length.  I’m skeptical for other reasons mainly the unpredictable nature of individual active regions and naturally their contributions to baseline flux.  Anyway in two years we both will hopefully know a lot more.  Meanwhile, we should see the incoming regions continue to drop in average latitude The last spot-check of eight ARs put us at 15.11 degrees average.  Still about where we were last June, giving me further encouragement with regard to our progress toward Solar Max.  The northern pole may indeed have finally reversed but that still gives us a good six months of development imho.   Mike. 

NASA, STCE etcetera are playing dart. I calculate. They were wrong with the minimum… make your bets… Scott McIntosh refused to bet with me…