27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yep yep the old waiting game. but i wonder if its gonna be earth directed and if yes how much. not much familiar with northward eruptions. your best guess?  

Well, I also just checked the latest data from LASCO and all I can see is minor CME towards the northwest, not even a sign from at least a faint partial halo. My guess - there will be pretty much nothing. 

2 hours ago, MeteoLatvia said:

Well, I also just checked the latest data from LASCO and all I can see is minor CME towards the northwest, not even a sign from at least a faint partial halo. My guess - there will be pretty much nothing. 

The data gaps sure don't make it any easier to tell. It seems like there's a faint partial halo when trying to view frame by frame but I can't tell if it's dense or not with such a large gap.

19 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

The data gaps sure don't make it any easier to tell. It seems like there's a faint partial halo when trying to view frame by frame but I can't tell if it's dense or not with such a large gap.

Yes, that's what I also wanted to mention, because few frames after the data gap I can notice something, but only in difference mode. I can't understand - why there are such data gaps and why they do happen just when we need data the most? 

7 hours ago, Velocity said:

Brand new poster here, total amateur enthusiast. I just wanted to say it's really cool to check out SUVI 304 on this one. It looks like activity starts around region 3605 and makes its way through 3599 (m7.4 triggers) before ending at 3602.

on a side note, SUVI 304 also shows a significant eruption of some kind just before on the far side, looked like it was pretty fast!

Welcome to the forums Velocity!

Well. I guess its finally goodbye from

3599. M1.  

So, activity is ramping up again, now that it's just disappearing behind the western limb...

Somehow this sounds familiar to me!

 

3 hours ago, FredSchuller said:

So, activity is ramping up again, now that it's just disappearing behind the western limb...

Somehow this sounds familiar to me!

 

You’re not the only one  @FredSchuller  haha. 

To me it looks like 3599 is going to flare soon

1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

To me it looks like 3599 is going to flare soon

Good call.  Look at 131 A now.  Haha  must’ve just happened too. Not even on solar soft yet. Lots of spray.  

Edited March 15, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Still going up in flux

of course behind the western limb😁😁😁

Absolutely wonderful CME, but of course it's behind the limb. Nothing out of the ordinary.

30 minutes ago, nestex3236 said:

Absolutely wonderful CME, but of course it's behind the limb. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Yup.  And eclipse season so it will be a bit until we get some  information on duration etc.   Edit: we should see some protons from that mess at the very least, it seems.  

Edited March 15, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Proton speculation

We only get 3 stages of "Solar activity":

1. - No flares/eruptions at all
2. - Strong flares with amazing CMEs off limbs
3. - Center disk flares with eruptions that are headed in all directions except Earth
 

It's just how it is, we need to accept it.

I would say even a very powerful eruption from this region behind the limb. X-ray flux at ~C5 levels for near 3 hours already and still seems dropping very slowly, so I guess that it is at least high-end M class if not even X class flare.

 

Very nice, bright CME is visible.

...and Solar protons are already starting to rise quickly. I won't rule out that we will see S1 - a minor space radiation storm.

Wow, this must have been huge (certainly X-class)!

But of course, well behind the limb....

 

1 minute ago, FredSchuller said:

Wow, this must have been huge (certainly X-class)!

Eh, not even close. GOES got a good look at the flare, so it probably wouldn't have been much over C6.02, if there would be any change at all.

33 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Eh, not even close. GOES got a good look at the flare, so it probably wouldn't have been much over C6.02, if there would be any change at all.

But it's strongly occulted as seen from Earth, so that GOES could only see the hot plasma well above the photosphere. There must have been hotter, harder X-rays further down...

 

https://youtu.be/HFT7ATLQQx8  There are some pretty post flare arcades in 193 angstrom now   @KW2P Posted a really cool video with music showing dripping plasma for those of you who haven’t seen it   It is archived under our geomagnetic area under “ 6.8 cme watch “ a couple of months ago  short but very cool!!

 

 

Edited March 15, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Link at top

I was having difficulty linking it.  Finally  works.  Link at the top. 

3 hours ago, FredSchuller said:

But it's strongly occulted as seen from Earth, so that GOES could only see the hot plasma well above the photosphere. There must have been hotter, harder X-rays further down...

 

Totally agreed. This event in my view definetly does not look like C6, given that it has been lasting for more than 6 hours, associated CME in LASCO is looking very bright and fast (~1500 km/sec), triggered a proton event that almost reaches S1 levels.

 

...but... if it really is C6 then I'm blown away, how that small flare could generate such an impressive flare/eruption.

i wouldn't give it an X-level tho. M5-M9 is my candidate but we will never know ofc

5 hours ago, FredSchuller said:

But it's strongly occulted as seen from Earth, so that GOES could only see the hot plasma well above the photosphere. There must have been hotter, harder X-rays further down...

 The flare occurred well above the solar surface in sort of a post-arcade loop, so I don't see how it is occulted much. The CME released from a fairly high altitude, so that is probably why there was no flaring near the surface. Even looking at the differenced solar imagery, it wasn't as eruptive as we might expect. (Noting there was a smaller CME on the south side as the main CME launched. Pretty much 3 CMEs were launching at minimum with a slower one to start)

Looking at the coronagraph imagery this afternoon now, it looks pretty decent. Maybe a moderate CME.

I have to go with Jester's opinion here, I'd say lowgrade M-flare at most, it was most likely all those filaments that finally erupted after dancing for days above the region & we could easily see the post-arcade loops way above the suns surface & they weren't that bright to begin with. Doesn't look that occulted to me either.

Decent CME though.

 

I'm deeply apologizing for my misleading theory I shared (about the limb occultation and flare intensity). I hope I was not breaking forum rules by it. I didn't intended to do that, this was just my guess, but I still have steep learning curve on this.

We all speculate,  is my take on it @MeteoLatvia    Even  astrophysicists disagree at times.  Looks like that CME discharged enough low-level protons to push us to S1 levels any minute, if not yet.  Even the massive X-40 from region 10486 had to be calculated due to the fact that it was well beyond the west limb when it occurred.