Jump to content

10.02 filament CME geomagnetic storm watch


Recommended Posts

As odd as it may seem, there is actually a pretty decent full halo in differenced coronagraph imagery.

After calculations, I'd expect an arrival at L1 within the evening on the 12th to early morning on the 13th. I'd go with G1 possible.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

really want to be optimistic about this coronal mass ejection but it just looks like all of the ejecta is heading south of us.

Yep. Here is C3 differenced imagery though,

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1so12XEFaE1JnBzP2ReLbWaVJWhiXn5f7/preview

Edited by Jesterface23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I watched C3 difference images as well and it didn't change my mind. Clearly pretty much all of the ejecta is heading south of us, if any of it impacts it will be very minor. I hope I am wrong of course getting rather sick of seeing all these CMEs go everywhere but towards us.

  • Like 3
  • Cool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'm struggling to see a halo from this one in that imagery, but it's definitely not my forte. At least to me it seems like all of the ejecta above the disc is from the earlier larger ejection beyond the left limb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I'm struggling to see a halo from this one in that imagery, but it's definitely not my forte. At least to me it seems like all of the ejecta above the disc is from the earlier larger ejection beyond the left limb.

Yeah, even trying to circle it in a single image isn't too easy. It's just about the below in the one frame and you should be able to see it in the GIF after,

image.thumb.jpeg.a4e08fd56e3497e800409a524170e296.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Yeah, even trying to circle it in a single image isn't too easy. It's just about the below in the one frame and you should be able to see it in the GIF after,

image.thumb.jpeg.a4e08fd56e3497e800409a524170e296.jpeg

Oh yeah, now I do see that there seems to be something there. I guess I'd have to agree with Marcel that any impact would likely be minor though, judging by how weak it is in comparison; but maybe we will register something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But can’t we likely expect another “cannibal effect” where the more recent small Earth-directed CME “snowplows” all of the dense particle content from multiple previous events in our direction, resulting in a counter-intuitively larger storm? Like back on May 2?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, David Silver said:

But can’t we likely expect another “cannibal effect” where the more recent small Earth-directed CME “snowplows” all of the dense particle content from multiple previous events in our direction, resulting in a counter-intuitively larger storm? Like back on May 2?

It's not likely since we can't predict the magnetic orientation until it reaches our satellites. The only thing we can go off of is it's speed and trajectory. The first CME was much slower so our best hope is if it reaches earth moments before this CME  allowing it to disturb the IMF and clearing the way to some extent. Chances are the smaller one will impede the larger CME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.