tniickck Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Mary Aronne predicts Kp4-6 for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 As odd as it may seem, there is actually a pretty decent full halo in differenced coronagraph imagery. After calculations, I'd expect an arrival at L1 within the evening on the 12th to early morning on the 13th. I'd go with G1 possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Marcel de Bont Posted February 10 Popular Post Share Posted February 10 I really want to be optimistic about this coronal mass ejection but it just looks like all of the ejecta is heading south of us. I really want it even to give us a glancing blow but I just can not scrape the confidence together to say that it might impact Earth. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: really want to be optimistic about this coronal mass ejection but it just looks like all of the ejecta is heading south of us. Yep. Here is C3 differenced imagery though, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1so12XEFaE1JnBzP2ReLbWaVJWhiXn5f7/preview Edited February 10 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I watched C3 difference images as well and it didn't change my mind. Clearly pretty much all of the ejecta is heading south of us, if any of it impacts it will be very minor. I hope I am wrong of course getting rather sick of seeing all these CMEs go everywhere but towards us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Yep. Here is C3 differenced imagery though, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1so12XEFaE1JnBzP2ReLbWaVJWhiXn5f7/preview I'm struggling to see a halo from this one in that imagery, but it's definitely not my forte. At least to me it seems like all of the ejecta above the disc is from the earlier larger ejection beyond the left limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I'm struggling to see a halo from this one in that imagery, but it's definitely not my forte. At least to me it seems like all of the ejecta above the disc is from the earlier larger ejection beyond the left limb. Yeah, even trying to circle it in a single image isn't too easy. It's just about the below in the one frame and you should be able to see it in the GIF after, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Yeah, even trying to circle it in a single image isn't too easy. It's just about the below in the one frame and you should be able to see it in the GIF after, Oh yeah, now I do see that there seems to be something there. I guess I'd have to agree with Marcel that any impact would likely be minor though, judging by how weak it is in comparison; but maybe we will register something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So is it south or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: So is it south or no The good stuff is going south of L1. Simply put we may be somewhere in the middle of getting the best or worst out of the CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 But can’t we likely expect another “cannibal effect” where the more recent small Earth-directed CME “snowplows” all of the dense particle content from multiple previous events in our direction, resulting in a counter-intuitively larger storm? Like back on May 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolbeinn Helgi Kristjánsson Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Give me some Aurora Juice please, it's starting to become depressing with the stale earth directed space weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, David Silver said: But can’t we likely expect another “cannibal effect” where the more recent small Earth-directed CME “snowplows” all of the dense particle content from multiple previous events in our direction, resulting in a counter-intuitively larger storm? Like back on May 2? It's not likely since we can't predict the magnetic orientation until it reaches our satellites. The only thing we can go off of is it's speed and trajectory. The first CME was much slower so our best hope is if it reaches earth moments before this CME allowing it to disturb the IMF and clearing the way to some extent. Chances are the smaller one will impede the larger CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This CME possibly arrived at L1. There was an IMF shock, but the solar wind data is iffy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It's incredibly tiny. I'd rather believe the CME missed or is very late than this is it and it's just so weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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