Drax Spacex Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Will this fast and wide CME from the eruption behind the west limb have an Earth-directed component? The partial halo seen in LASCO spans slightly more than 180°, seeming to indicate that it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Solution Share Posted February 9 No. This is more of a smaller compact July 23rd, 2012 CME instead of something like the massive shock of the September 10th, 2017 CME. And the halo is likely mostly on the far side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Nasa modelled it to be a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Venus looks like it's going to get a major hit! I hope it's not bad for the aliens there! Who knows how it will affect their technology! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 The Parker Spiral effect could help some to curve the CME our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This was the September 10, 2017 CME on the limb and look how large the shock is. Compare it to today's CME over the limb. Not really a chance of an L1 arrival. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html # t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff # dt0: duration of liftoff (hours) # pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees) # da: angular width (degrees), # v: median velocity (km/s) # dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME # minv: lowest velocity detected within the CME # maxv: highest velocity detected within the CME # halo?: II if da>90, III if da>180, IV if da>270, indicating potential halo/partial halo CME # CME | t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| halo? 0049|2024/02/09 13:25| 04 | 217| 288| 0920| 0380| 0190| 1644| IV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html # t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff # dt0: duration of liftoff (hours) # pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees) # da: angular width (degrees), # v: median velocity (km/s) # dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME # minv: lowest velocity detected within the CME # maxv: highest velocity detected within the CME # halo?: II if da>90, III if da>180, IV if da>270, indicating potential halo/partial halo CME # CME | t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| halo? 0049|2024/02/09 13:25| 04 | 217| 288| 0920| 0380| 0190| 1644| IV so, halo ≥270? also looked at this CME on LASCO C3 earlier and it looked like a really impressive halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 What about the bullet of plasma that shot off of the eruption to the south east? It appeared to be headed somewhat in our direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Is it earth directed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Jay-B said: What about the bullet of plasma that shot off of the eruption to the south east? It appeared to be headed somewhat in our direction? That CME looks to have gone almost directly south. It is hard to make out from within the other CME in coronagraph imagery. 9 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Is it earth directed Well, I guess I'll revise. We can't see the halo on our side of the disk because it would overlap from the far-side halo. Maybe a tiny bit is Earth-directed, we can't really see if we do have a halo on our side, but if any part is directed at Earth it likely won't arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: That CME looks to have gone almost directly south. It is hard to make out from within the other CME in coronagraph imagery. Well, I guess I'll revise. We can't see the halo on our side of the disk because it would overlap from the far-side halo. Maybe a tiny bit is Earth-directed, we can't really see if we do have a halo on our side, but if any part is directed at Earth it likely won't arrive. Im sorry but people really convinced the farside x3 relatedCME will arrive at earth? Im confused. i thought its not earth directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Im confused. i thought its not earth directed. I guess technically it possibly could be, but we can't see what all is on our side of the disk in coronagraph imagery. Maybe a little bit of the CME is Earth-directed, but if it is it won't make it far from the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said: The partial halo seen in LASCO spans slightly more than 180°, I think the angle could be misleading, because it went partially (or mostly) to the farside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: That CME looks to have gone almost directly south. It is hard to make out from within the other CME in coronagraph imagery. If you look at the video minyoongi posted on page 7 of the ar3575 feed it shows it pretty clearly shooting out to the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, Jay-B said: If you look at the video minyoongi posted on page 7 of the ar3575 feed it shows it pretty clearly shooting out to the left It launched maybe slightly in our direction, but it is still launched way too far southward. Fun Fact: The Ulysses satellite's orbit passed near by the north and south poles of the Sun at about 2AU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Either way it was pretty cool to see that get throw out like that! I have never seen that happen before in the 6 months I've been paying attention lol Just now, Jesterface23 said: launched maybe slightly in our direction, but it is still launched way too far southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Jay-B said: Either way it was pretty cool to see that get throw out like that! I have never seen that happen before in the 6 months I've been paying attention lol Too bad there was a X3 CME in the way to get a good coronagraph view of it heh. I've seen it happen before in archived data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Too bad there was a X3 CME in the way to get a good coronagraph view of it heh. I've seen it happen before in archived data. It also sucks that we don't have a satellite around Venus to see what kind of aurora it will get from that cme and also to monitor the sun from that point of view as well. Does the Parker solar probe have any picture taking capability or is it only for measuring the sun's atmosphere? 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: I guess technically it possibly could be In the words of Jim carrey from dumb and dumber.... "what are the chances like one in a hundred? No, more like one in a million. So your telling me there's a chance! Yeah!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 This was a tricky one to analyze given far side activity and no off-axis imagery to help resolve (i.e. STEREO A) . If there were to be a glancing blow, I would have expected it today. Alas, there was none. Ah well, now we have bigger fish to fry in the analysis pan with the recent AR3576 M9 flare and CME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 To wrap this up, SWPC did observe a slight Earth impact, attributed possibly to this CME: :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Feb 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # .... 24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CME, possibly a glancing blow related to the X3.3 flare on 09 Feb. Total field ranged from 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied between 7 nT to -6 nT. Wind speeds were generally in the 500-600 km/s range. Phi angle was predominately negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm guessing they are brainstorming too. It would have been a travel time of 36 hours from a CME over the western limb. Just my thoughts, it's not very realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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