tniickck Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 M2M office predicted Kp5-7 for this one but then lowered to 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 1 Author Share Posted February 1 21 minutes ago, Maciej Dunst said: That topic is about the flare, and this one is about a CME and a storm prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, tniickck said: M2M office predicted Kp5-7 for this one but then lowered to 4-6 Where did you see that they lowered? ah i found it myself. i also saw 2 runs from their enlil model. i dont know which one to take serious now? what did noaa say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 1 Author Share Posted February 1 26 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Where did you see that they lowered? ah i found it myself. i also saw 2 runs from their enlil model. i dont know which one to take serious now? what did noaa say? take both. the position is "slippery" again and it is really easy to mistake while prognosing. noaa said nothing but made ENLIL (an interactive one) which i find unrealistic and too pessimistic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 18 minutes ago, tniickck said: take both. the position is "slippery" again and it is really easy to mistake while prognosing. noaa said nothing but made ENLIL (an interactive one) which i find unrealistic and too pessimistic why too pessimistic? it would fit the 2nd run from nasa with an arrival late feb 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Out of all of the filaments this year, this is going to be the toughest one to forecast. I'm just going to wait for the rest of the imagery to fill in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I will have the CME's forecasted arrival at L1 from late on the 3rd to noon on the 4th. There might be a slight chance for G2 with an early arrival, but overall G1 is possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 This one is a bit tough to do a forecast on as @Jesterface23 says for a few reasons where the main one is that there are serval CME's at almost the same time. For the main one discussed here I can only see a glancing blow at best. Most of the plasma seems to be missing. Maybe a G2 at most if we get lucky with a prolonged negative Bz. I am a bit pessimistic about this one sadly. I'm gonna study the images more and run them through a program I just created that does some calculations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpeg.7abe2161b0f23cd159d2d4a196ed224a.jpeg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now