tniickck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 i would give at least Kp5 for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Isn’t this the same as the filament topic? Looks like it’s the same CME in your pictures? I might be mistaken though. It will be hard to keep these topics apart if it’s of the same event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, arjemma said: Isn’t this the same as the filament topic? Looks like it’s the same CME in your pictures? I might be mistaken though. It will be hard to keep these topics apart if it’s of the same event? i think its this one but yes i think the first screenshot is not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 14 minutes ago, arjemma said: Isn’t this the same as the filament topic? Looks like it’s the same CME in your pictures? I might be mistaken though. It will be hard to keep these topics apart if it’s of the same event? There’s been another one on the 21st at 0036 UTC, notice how the impact time (1st one 22nd, this one 23rd) isn’t the same Edited January 21 by chronical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @arjemma @tniickck this is the right model run for this event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ah okay, I think the model made me confused. Good call. Finally we have some storms heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) Calculations for this CME has me thinking an arrival at L1 will be around the evening of the 23rd to early afternoon of the 24th. Given the chance for interactions with the filament eruption CME on the 20th, I think there may be a slight chance for G2 with an early arrival down to G1 possible with a later arrival. Edited January 21 by Jesterface23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: @arjemma @tniickck this is the right model run for this event disappointment😢 but it looks real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Should we worry or nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minuten geleden, Nathan Majors zei: Should we worry or nope Nothing to worry, just normal space weather… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So is it g2 or g1 the most recent thing shows g1 The iswa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: So is it g2 or g1 the most recent thing shows g1 Guessing it is that the SWPC 3 day forecast has been updated, but the 3 day geomagnetic forecast comes out in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) This is what I’m talking about By this image if you had to guess g2 or g1 I’d say g1 geomagnetic storm slight chance of g2 How’s it looking Just respond when you can no rush Edited January 21 by Nathan Majors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Y’all here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Y’all here All we can do is wait and watch at this point and hope for a good geomagnetic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ok If we had a g1 people would still see it at higher latitude and lower latitude less to no Effects But if it was g2 it would have the most effects in higher latitudes then lower latitudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: If we had a g1 people would still see it at higher latitude and lower latitude less to no Effects Welp, effects on what: - Higher latitudes will have a better chance of seeing the aurora. - On power grids and stuff like that, there is nothing to worry about. Even with the last extreme geomagnetic storms, the 2003 Halloween events, we made it through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Welp, effects on what: - Higher latitudes will have a better chance of seeing the aurora. - On power grids and stuff like that, there is nothing to worry about. Even with the last extreme geomagnetic storms, the 2003 Halloween events, we made it through it. Ok thanks sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looks like kp4 is the best this guy can do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Welp, there has been no flux rope arrival from the previous CME. Not expecting much from this CME when it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) There were also 2 other filament snaps shortly after the big one, one was facing us in the Northern hemisphere and likely had an Earth directed component but didn't look like there was a lot of material ejected and the other was on the Western limb and probably not Earth directed but likely the 3 combined would have thrown Cactus off a bit in the NASA prediction. Edited January 23 by cgrant26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Welp, there has been no flux rope arrival from the previous CME. Not expecting much from this CME when it arrives. ah, so yesterday wasnt really an arrival? well, overcasts happen, we dont know what happens in space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ah, so yesterday wasnt really an arrival? well, overcasts happen, we dont know what happens in space. The CME from the 20th arrived, but we never ended up getting a flux rope out of it. A flux rope would of helped this CME. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Well, at least I haven't been missing anything for the past month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The shock may have arrived a little past 20:00Z. I'd trust ACE's density more than DSCOVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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