the CME was powerful. extremely powerful and fast, but NASA model must be a shock model, not the main part of ejecta

3 minutes ago, tniickck said:

the CME was powerful. extremely powerful and fast, but NASA model must be a shock model, not the main part of ejecta

yeah after a shit ton of digging i found this note with the model : Note :
This is a preliminary measurement of the shock front for this CME to support SEP modeling, and not the bulk portion which will be modeled separately pending further analysis.

what do you say to the noaa swpc model? it was run at 08:00 UTC and i didnt find a run from yesterday so i think its for this cme?

5 minutes ago, tniickck said:

the CME was powerful. extremely powerful and fast, but NASA model must be a shock model, not the main part of ejecta

 

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

All three energy levels are off of baseline presently and polar cap absorption is going up rapidly too. 

First time in a good while that I've seen the 100 MeV protons make a jump like that, must've been a pretty big blast.

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

what do you say to the noaa swpc model? it was run at 08:00 UTC and i didnt find a run from yesterday so i think its for this cme?

 

are you talking about wsa enlil? it looks realistic, but imo the speed of cme is too low on it and it needs a remodel

1 minute ago, tniickck said:

are you talking about wsa enlil? it looks realistic, but imo the speed of cme is too low on it and it needs a remodel

it just got a remodel at 10:00 UTC, why exactly remodel? (Speed you mentioned?) 

I just try to find out if theres an earth directed component or not haha

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I just try to find out if theres an earth directed component or not haha

a short answer: shouldn't be, or really weak

The CME is on our side of the solar disk by about 10 degrees. The CME is directed at STEREO A. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an Earth-directed component. Once we get coronagraph imagery, the question would be if a part coming would be too slow to arrive. I wouldn't expect much from any impact though.