Here's hoping one of the filaments within the region gets unleashed & triggers a bigger flare with it 😜

The M5 flare did release a decent CME, but my first thoughts are that it looks to be a right on the edge glancing blow likely resulting in an at least 3 day travel time.

46 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The M5 flare did release a decent CME, but my first thoughts are that it looks to be a right on the edge glancing blow likely resulting in an at least 3 day travel time.

Too bad.  Did that M flare deal us anything good from the upper part of this huge region?  ( hope). The M 1.34 that just spit. 

Edited January 23, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Too many M class.

12 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Did that M flare deal us anything good from the upper part of this huge region?  ( hope). The M 1.34 that just spit. 

A bit too early to tell. We need SOHO's imagery to catch back up as well.

I think a M4,something flare from this region. Not 100% sure yet since suvi is lagging behind.

its the other region. my bad.

Hey @MinYoongi  It’s almost impossible to keep up with the m classes!!   Incredible.  

14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

its the other region. my bad.

 

6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Hey @MinYoongi  It’s almost impossible to keep up with the m classes!!   Incredible.  

 

haha, yup! The region looks almost unchanged though.

Edited January 24, 20241 yr by MinYoongi

@Philalethes  I now understand what you meant earlier in this thread when you talked about the Region being more like 2 separate ones. By now the left part has moved so far away, im wondering if its really one region or two. 

 

To me it does not look that complex anymore, what do you guys say? 

8 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

@Philalethes  I now understand what you meant earlier in this thread when you talked about the Region being more like 2 separate ones. By now the left part has moved so far away, im wondering if its really one region or two. 

To me it does not look that complex anymore, what do you guys say? 

Yeah, I think it's still two ARs, with the rightmost one just big very large and having moved very far apart; the region on the left on the other hand has barely visible negative polarity, but can be seen to some extent in the m-gram.

And I agree, looks like the complexity is all gone from this one for now.

The bigger sunspot of this group has negatives developing.

It started flashing on the limb

Woah M5 out of nowhere.

8 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

It started flashing on the limb

R2

Edited January 29, 20241 yr by Adrian Kobyłecki

Goes has it as M 6.6 before it turned to the right.  An earlier M class from today as well   6.83. Cool. Our amateur radio E layer creator* says goodbye soon. Unfortunately its 9 pm four hours after sunset here. Too late to do stateside hams much good. Maybe next time…. Haha.        * speculations only at present 

Edited January 29, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
More flux

Protons starting to rise.

Could it cross the 10pfu threshold or was it too weak for that? 

 

38 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Could it cross the 10pfu threshold or was it too weak for that? 

 

it can. the CME is strong and eruptive 

All three energy levels are off of baseline presently and polar cap absorption is going up rapidly too. 

There it is!

40 minutes ago, tniickck said:

it can. the CME is strong and eruptive 

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

it can. the CME is strong and eruptive 

Is there an earth directed component?

21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is there an earth directed component?

of course no, only the most powerful CMEs can release an earth-directed component from W75. if you remember 18 July M5.7 flare which occured about W80 and caused a strong S2 radiation storm with peak flux of 625 (current S1 storm has the peak of 18.4) had no earth-directed component at all despiste being one of the most powerful ejections of the current cycle. 

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

All three energy levels are off of baseline presently and polar cap absorption is going up rapidly too. 

yeah, i havent seen 50 and 100 mev go up this high in a while! 

2 hours ago, tniickck said:

of course no, only the most powerful CMEs can release an earth-directed component from W75.

Oh, okay. Solarham on Twitter mentioned something about an earth directed component so I thought i'd ask ;D 

 

@tniickck  i dont know if they only modelled the CME shock here or the whole CME but it looks earth directed

im a bit confused thought about this run and everything (but they often model the shock so i dont know) 

i thought based on where the CME/Flare happened its not really something that impacts us just like @tniickck said maybe a very glancing blow so if anyone could share opinions/knowledge i'd be happy : )

 

cuz this is the ENLIL from noaa running time 08:00 UTC with mode CME so i think thats the same cme ??? showing a miss

but then again it looks almost like far side eruption so i dont know if thats the same CME but why shouldnt it be? so much confusion

this is the dimming i sadly couldnt post it as a gif. from solardemon.

it seems like lasco has not updated so i dont know where either nasa or noaa take their imagery from (stereo a??) 

Fast, bright CME seen to the NW in STEREO COR2A (awaiting SOHO downlink for further imagery). Source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 3559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as field line opening and an EUV wave, with a post eruptive arcade following in all wavelengths. Initial analysis is preliminary and ongoing. Preliminary measurement of the shock front with SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A imagery, finding difficulty fitting near the source longitude of ~W70 and requiring longitudes W20-W30 to triangulate a good visual fit between SOHO and STEREO. Further analysis will follow.

 

 

This is what i could find. i dont know if the line " Preliminary measurement of the shock front with SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A imagery" is indicative of it being a shock model only