tniickck Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 we all are waiting for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M42Sparks Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 There was no calculated velocity in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AScaredObserver Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Spaceweather.com is saying it'll graze the planet tomorrow and likely spark a G2 magnetic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M42Sparks Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Seems like the X5.0 is not a big deal. I was under the impression that X10 is a planet killer. We just had an X2.8 that didn't to to much damage to Earth infastructure. Maybe too many Hollywood Doomsday movies are clouding my perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 1 Popular Post Share Posted January 1 1 uur terug, M42Sparks zei: Seems like the X5.0 is not a big deal. I was under the impression that X10 is a planet killer. We just had an X2.8 that didn't to to much damage to Earth infastructure. Maybe too many Hollywood Doomsday movies are clouding my perception. X10 is NOT planet killer, it’s just a very strong solar flare. We’ve had a direct hit of an X24 in the past and the flank of the CME of the X40 and we all lived on and enjoyed Aurora even at low latitudes. Space weather isn’t what Hollywood makes of it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 They probably mean infrastructure killer given that strong solar flares like x10s pack quite a punch. Either way, although there is disagreement in the models, this flare here shouldn't impact us much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Flare and CME strengths don't always go hand in hand. We had an almost X-Class flare not too long ago that was far slower than what you would expect. Then it can also be the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I would say a glancing blow at best for this one. It does look like a very faint halo but that could be from image distortion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Flare and CME strengths don't always go hand in hand. We had an almost X-Class flare not too long ago that was far slower than what you would expect. Then it can also be the other way around. Yes sadly. every. single. time. some stron solar flare happens (Earth directed...), im patiently waiting here in Austria to see aurora and then: Disappointment numero 10000 Reasons: 1. The CME didnt spark eny Geomagnetic activity 2. The CME sparked activity but so little, that i simply cant see stuff 3. The Shock arrives when it is day in my area (This is so painful) 4. Weather aaaaaaargh, last time when there was a chance to see aurora (well a friend of mine actually saw them) i was souped in in fog and rain :(((( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We might be in an interesting spot depending on how long the CH CIR/HSS transition we are in lasts. It could flip and the IMF drops back to baseline, or the CH causing this is so far south that we may remain in the transition with the elevated IMF when the CME arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 hours ago, Fishaxolotl said: They probably mean infrastructure killer given that strong solar flares like x10s pack quite a punch. Unlikely. See Sander’s post. We took a direct X28 and glancing X40 in 2003, and were basically fine. We had grids, telephones, computers, satellites, the works then, it’s not like a pre-technological era. If we were fine then, we will be fine for similar events now. And this SC isn’t as strong as that one was, in the main. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: We might be in an interesting spot depending on how long the CH CIR/HSS transition we are in lasts. It could flip and the IMF drops back to baseline, or the CH causing this is so far south that we may remain in the transition with the elevated IMF when the CME arrives. What effect would this have on the coming kp index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It didn't hit Earth or it's slower than I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 6 hours ago, Fishaxolotl said: What effect would this have on the coming kp index? The shock arrival might pack a little more of a punch. The shock arrival might be the best chance for geomagnetic activity on this one. Edited January 2 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPAM low energy protons are decreasing again. I would speculate that it has passed earth without impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, helios said: EPAM low energy protons are decreasing again. I would speculate that it has passed earth without impact. The red 46-68 is the one to watch. I am fairly certain we will have an arrival within the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I still stand with our original analyses that this will be a weak shock passage at best but probably there won't be any impact at all. The location of the eruption combined with LASCO just doesn't give me much hope and neither do these expensive computer models sometimes... but I love to be wrong! https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/514/20231214-major-x2-8-solar-flare.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 At the speed at which the CME left the Sun, it should have reached Earth long ago. It appears that it passed the Earth or the impact was so weak that it did not cause any activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokonutcreme Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) Wow, all of this too and frowing really gets my brain going. It's not just a twinkle Edited January 3 by kokonutcreme Impulsive reaction which was not on topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 59 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: It appears that it passed the Earth or the impact was so weak that it did not cause any activity If it hit we sure wouldn't have missed it (not notice it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 25 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: If it hit we sure wouldn't have missed it (not notice it) You're right, I didn't take into account the solar wind speed which we would have missed. I also noticed that the protons were starting to increase, so maybe there will be an impact in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 And the CME has arrived finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks to be more of a "thump" than an impact, but we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Welp, before heading off for the night, Happy Positive Bz Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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