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impact from X5 CME


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Seems like the X5.0 is not a big deal. I was under the impression that X10 is a planet killer. We just had an X2.8 that didn't to to much damage to Earth infastructure. Maybe too many Hollywood Doomsday movies are clouding my perception. 

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13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Flare and CME strengths don't always go hand in hand. We had an almost X-Class flare not too long ago that was far slower than what you would expect. Then it can also be the other way around.

Yes sadly. 
every. single. time. some stron solar flare happens (Earth directed...), im patiently waiting here in Austria to see aurora and then: Disappointment numero 10000
Reasons:
1. The CME didnt spark eny Geomagnetic activity
2. The CME sparked activity but so little, that i simply cant see stuff
3. The Shock arrives when it is day in my area (This is so painful)
4. Weather aaaaaaargh, last time when there was a chance to see aurora (well a friend of mine actually saw them) i was souped in in fog and rain :((((

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We might be in an interesting spot depending on how long the CH CIR/HSS transition we are in lasts. It could flip and the IMF drops back to baseline, or the CH causing this is so far south that we may remain in the transition with the elevated IMF when the CME arrives.

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9 hours ago, Fishaxolotl said:

They probably mean infrastructure killer given that strong solar flares like x10s pack quite a punch.

Unlikely. See Sander’s post. We took a direct X28 and glancing X40 in 2003, and were basically fine. We had grids, telephones, computers, satellites, the works then, it’s not like a pre-technological era. If we were fine then, we will be fine for similar events now. And this SC isn’t as strong as that one was, in the main. 

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4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

We might be in an interesting spot depending on how long the CH CIR/HSS transition we are in lasts. It could flip and the IMF drops back to baseline, or the CH causing this is so far south that we may remain in the transition with the elevated IMF when the CME arrives.

What effect would this have on the coming kp index? 

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6 hours ago, Fishaxolotl said:

What effect would this have on the coming kp index? 

The shock arrival might pack a little more of a punch. The shock arrival might be the best chance for geomagnetic activity on this one.

Edited by Jesterface23
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5 minutes ago, helios said:

EPAM low energy protons are decreasing again. I would speculate that it has passed earth without impact.

The red 46-68 is the one to watch. I am fairly certain we will have an arrival within the next 12 hours.

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I still stand with our original analyses that this will be a weak shock passage at best but probably there won't be any impact at all. 

The location of the eruption combined with LASCO just doesn't give me much hope and neither do these expensive computer models sometimes... but I love to be wrong!

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/514/20231214-major-x2-8-solar-flare.html

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25 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

If it hit we sure wouldn't have missed it

(not notice it)

You're right, I didn't take into account the solar wind speed which we would have missed. I also noticed that the protons were starting to increase, so maybe there will be an impact in a few hours

Screenshot_20240103_022025_Chrome.jpg

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