Sunspot latitudes as of Dec 01 2023

[hamateur 1953]

I recently became more interested in these observations, so yesterday only I took the following latitudes from this sites’ eleven regions.  North. 08. North 10 North 17 North 20 and North 22 degrees.   South 09 South 13 South 15  South 17 and South 18 (2).   Avg latitude North is 15.4.  Avg latitude South is 15 degrees.   Assuming equatorial proximity is a good indicator of Solar Maximum, this is very good news, and that this bears out over the next few months and my quick calculations are accurate, of course.  We still have a way to go with SC 25.  Haha.  Best wishes to all this coming holiday season btw!  Mike/Hagrid. 

Edited December 2, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Grammar and typos

[Philalethes]

Do you mean that it's good news because we're still not at equatorial latitudes, or that it's good news because we've reached as close to the equator as it gets during the maximum? Just asking since it wasn't entirely clear to me which you meant.

As for what it entails, I think around 10-15° is where the spots end up staying for the most part towards the end, and that they generally don't appear right next to the equator, so it should imply that we're near maximum; I just hope we haven't passed it already as some claim, but I still don't think that's the case. The coming year will certainly be one of the most important in determining where this cycle is headed.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[hamateur 1953]

Good points @Philalethes.  My intent was to convey my belief that given the current average latitudes, that we hadn’t quite passed the approximate 11 degree area that I recall as having been considered as near maximum.  This is from memory only and most certainly subject to questioning. Especially as you and others have noted, we really only have a small sample size to work with ( 24 SC’s) 
personally, I expect maximum of this cycle as I think you do, around next May-June 2024.  However if it is like sc 23 in its well-separated double peaks it might be really nice to see a 300plus peak. We are long overdue for a good show.  

Edited December 3, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Messed up Philalethes’ spelling.

[Newbie]

On 12/2/2023 at 10:50 PM, hamateur 1953 said:

I recently became more interested in these observations, so yesterday only I took the following latitudes from this sites’ eleven regions.  North. 08. North 10 North 17 North 20 and North 22 degrees.   South 09 South 13 South 15  South 17 and South 18 (2).   Avg latitude North is 15.4.  Avg latitude South is 15 degrees.   Assuming equatorial proximity is a good indicator of Solar Maximum, this is very good news, and that this bears out over the next few months and my quick calculations are accurate, of course.  We still have a way to go with SC 25.  Haha.  Best wishes to all this coming holiday season btw!  Mike/Hagrid. 

Thanks for providing this @hamateur 1953

Butterfly diagrams are graphical representations of sunspot activity over time, displaying the latitude at which sunspots are observed. Sunspots tend to first appear at higher latitudes near 30 degrees and then migrate towards the solar equator as the solar cycle progresses as can be seen in the chart above.

During solar maximum, sunspots are typically found at mid-latitudes and can appear at latitudes ranging from approximately 5 to 30 degrees north and south of the solar equator. 

From your observations the latitudes are within a range of latitudes you would expect approaching solar maximum but imo we are not there yet and I expect to see more sunspots at lower latitudes.

N.

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Thanks for providing this @hamateur 1953

Butterfly diagrams are graphical representations of sunspot activity over time, displaying the latitude at which sunspots are observed. Sunspots tend to first appear at higher latitudes near 30 degrees and then migrate towards the solar equator as the solar cycle progresses as can be seen in the chart above.

During solar maximum, sunspots are typically found at mid-latitudes and can appear at latitudes ranging from approximately 5 to 30 degrees north and south of the solar equator. 

From your observations the latitudes are within a range of latitudes you would expect approaching solar maximum but imo we are not there yet and I expect to see more sunspots at lower latitudes.

N.

Thanks for posting this. David Hathaway now maintains this record on his own website http://solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html It also includes the Magnetic Butterfly Diagram and has data up to November 2023.

[hamateur 1953]

Very cool link Mike!  Thanks for posting it.  One more good source of data.  I was aware of studies but had no idea how deeply they’d delved into them.  Possibly other Hams do, but typically we only watch the predictions ( which aren’t always accurate) But not aware of how much study worldwide goes on behind the scenes unless we run across a guy like Scott McKintosh of course!   

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Thanks for posting this. David Hathaway now maintains this record on his own website http://solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html It also includes the Magnetic Butterfly Diagram and has data up to November 2023.

 

[hamateur 1953]

To clarify why I took the averages above.  Sunspots don’t always behave in a predictable manner.  They regularly violate our “ Laws “ seemingly at their own whims.  It is the averages that count when trying to establish points of reference during any SC.  

[Newbie]

8 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Thanks for posting this. David Hathaway now maintains this record on his own website http://solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html It also includes the Magnetic Butterfly Diagram and has data up to November 2023.

Thank you for posting the up to date chart @3gMike I was using it just as an example of where sunspots appear wrt the timeline of solar cycles. 
Handy to have the updated link. 😊

N.

[hamateur 1953]

I wanted to add at this point, not entirely trusting my memory as to latitudes at maximum, I averaged both cycles 23 and 24 at maximum. Cycle 23 had a really nice sample size of 16 ARs and came out to 11.5 degrees. Cycle 24 naturally had fewer. Only five to work with and came in at twelve degrees.  Possibly my memory is in error or there are other minor variations cyclically but interesting nonetheless. Btw cycle 23 had 323 sunspots the day I selected!   Excellent.   Mike 

Given this summary, it seems reasonable to look for latitude averages below 13 degrees when assessing if we are closing on Solar Max.    And a xmas present of 200 SFI seems certain. NRC just reported 195 solar flux.  

Edited December 20, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Xmas for Radio Amateurs

[arjemma]

On 12/3/2023 at 3:19 PM, 3gMike said:

Thanks for posting this. David Hathaway now maintains this record on his own website http://solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html It also includes the Magnetic Butterfly Diagram and has data up to November 2023.

Really nice source, thanks!

I’m studying the Flux-transport models at the moment and have read a bunch of papers about this. I hope that supercomputers can solve the third dimension so we get a 3D MHD, that would be really cool. I hope it happens in my lifetime.