New NASA prediction

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Will they again be wrong?

in December  2019 they delayed the minimum to April 2020. They were wrong…

A formula for the start of a new sunspot cycle | SpringerLink


https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10509-020-03800-x

Now they delay the maximum.. While I know it already happened… Study still in review…

Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction (Experimental) | Space Weather Prediction Testbed


http://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental
 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

48 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Now they delay the maximum.. While I know it already happened… Study still in review…

What does this months sunspot number need to be to not get a new high for this cycle?

[hamateur 1953]

Looking at those charts is very encouraging, frankly.  A second peak will be welcomed by all, I am certain. 
Edit:  I also decided to take their brief survey.  It  was pretty interesting  I should elaborate a bit here.  By second peak I am referring to solar radio flux at 10.7 

Edited October 26, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Clarity’s sake

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

4 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

What does this months sunspot number need to be to not get a new high for this cycle?

That is not relevant. My indicators for the minimum gave it between September-December 2019. We found new indicators that give the 13-month smoothed high beween June-July 2023. So the whole NASA team is again wrong…. Unbelievable… 

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

That is not relevant. My indicators for the minimum gave it between September-December 2019. We found new indicators that give the 13-month smoothed high beween June-July 2023. So the whole NASA team is again wrong…. Unbelievable… 

Patrick, Of course it is relevant. No matter what your indicators show, you have to accept reality. If the monthly mean value does not fall then the 13 month smoothed high will continue to rise for many more months.

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We found new indicators that give the 13-month smoothed high beween June-July 2023.

That isn't how reality works. You can only get a 13-month smoothed total sunspot number once you have 13 months of data.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

That isn't how reality works. You can only get a 13-month smoothed total sunspot number once you have 13 months of data.

You can circumvent it with 365-day smoothing, the polar fields and high resolution sunspots. Perfect fit with 13-month smoothing.

Fits even better than my prediction for the minimum.

[Jesterface23]

2 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

You can circumvent it with 365-day smoothing, the polar fields and high resolution sunspots. Perfect fit with 13-month smoothing.

Fits even better than my prediction for the minimum.

Still, solar maximum is from the 13 month SSN. It is from the month's data and the 6 months before and after it. There is no way around that.

You can make estimations currently, but no one can officially say solar maximum has already occurred.

Never know, with how low the daily SN is as of late, maybe there is a chance it can skyrocket to its highest values in the coming months.

[hamateur 1953]

Absolutely true @Jesterface23  And has been for nearly as long as I have been looking at past cycles whether 12 or 13 month data is being used to calculate smoothed maximums for any cycle.  There are good reasons for this historically too, but I won’t delve into that.  Meeus (1958) might be a good place for him to start.  Edit: to clarify again although it probably is not necessary, earlier I said “ second peak”. By this I meant only in SFI numbers.  Apologies. Mike/Hagrid 

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Still, solar maximum is from the 13 month SSN. It is from the month's data and the 6 months before and after it. There is no way around that.

You can make estimations currently, but no one can officially say solar maximum has already occurred.

Never know, with how low the daily SN is as of late, maybe there is a chance it can skyrocket to its highest values in the coming months.

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Clarity

[Philalethes]

14 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

What does this months sunspot number need to be to not get a new high for this cycle?

This month's average SN would have to be 55 to end up at an SSN of 120.9 for April, barely not exceeding the last SSN from March of 121.

That is of course impossible, since even if the SN were to plummet to 0 and stay there for the remainder of October, the average would still be ~90.

It should be noted that Patrick's claim is that the peak SSN will be in June-July though, which would be the case for average SNs for the next months in the 110-125 SN range, and then staying at those levels or lower. Time will tell, but I personally doubt that will happen.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Philalethes

[David Silver]

Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding…But I believe this solar cycle wont start waning until at least late 2025. No amount of data crunching will change the 22 year cycle. I trust Scott McIntosh who dates the terminator in Dec 2021. Why you would be discussing the peak in 2023 is confusing.

[hamateur 1953]

Agreed!

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

This month's average SN would have to be 55 to end up at an SSN of 120.9 for April, barely not exceeding the last SSN from March of 121.

That is of course impossible, since even if the SN were to plummet to 0 and stay there for the remainder of October, the average would still be ~90.

It should be noted that Patrick's claim is that the peak SSN will be in June-July though, which would be the case for average SNs for the next months in the 110-125 SN range, and then staying at those levels or lower. Time will tell, but I personally doubt that will happen.

and it looks like our sun just dealt an M flare. Close to or on the east limb. Hard to say what AR if any numbered region is responsible but the wait is almost over Imho. Solar soft has it as N 20 east 88 so probably a limb event and possibly even higher given its location perhaps an M 2. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Updated solar soft info

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, David Silver said:

Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding…But I believe this solar cycle wont start waning until at least late 2025. No amount of data crunching will change the 22 year cycle. I trust Scott McIntosh who dates the terminator in Dec 2021. Why you would be discussing the peak in 2023 is confusing.

Well, first of all, what Scott thinks of as a 22-year cycle is not exact, and contains the exact same uncertainties as the individual 11-year cycle, both in terms of actual length (11 and 22 years are averages, and our sample size is still rather low and has a lot of variation) and location of peaks. Those smooth normalized graphs are just based on those averages.

Secondly, that graph you just posted is using the estimate from what he first published in 2020, I believe it looks different after having been updated for the late terminator. Here is the 2022 paper, and here is the updated graph in it:

As you can see, it's a significantly lower expected peak and shorter expected cycle. The expected peak based on that is middle of 2024, which strikes me as very reasonable and also what I expect myself, but it's not unthinkable that it could possibly peak in 2023 even though it would be unlikely and unexpected, at least in my view.

[Aten]

I do think it is very possible we are already past maximum, but I think it is more likely we have not reached the max yet.

In the past 24 cycles the peak in the 13 month sunspot number has come on average 4 years and 4 months after the minimum, with a median of 4 years 1 month. The shortest time to max was 2 years 11 months, and the longest 6 years 10 months. Weaker cycles have tended to take longer to reach maximum, but the sample size is small so it is hard to say how strong the correlation is or if a correlation even really exists. The minimum was in December 2019, so 2024 is a good guess for the maximum, but we will have to wait and see.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

It should be noted that Patrick's claim is that the peak SSN will be in June-July though, which would be the case for average SNs for the next months in the 110-125 SN range, and then staying at those levels or lower. Time will tell, but I personally doubt that will happen.

Well… the mean value for October will be around 105 I guess…

[MissNeona]

Could the part where the sun could be changing it's vibration rate be a part of the shift?

Apparently happened before, might be happening again. 

https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19900806&slug=1086537

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/solar-system/a39572892/new-acoustic-wave-on-the-sun-defies-physics/

Edited October 27, 2023 by MissNeona

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Well… the mean value for October will be around 105 I guess…

Sounds plausible enough; and that for November could be 150, and that for December could be 180, we don't know yet. Last November it was ~80, two months later it was ~145. This April it was ~100, and two months later it was ~160. Not sure why you think the monthly average of a single month will somehow be representative of the future, other than to try to fit it into a model you have zero idea whether is valid or not.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Philalethes

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It should be noted that Patrick's claim is that the peak SSN will be in June-July though, which would be the case for average SNs for the next months in the 110-125 SN range, and then staying at those levels or lower. Time will tell, but I personally doubt that will happen.

Well… the mean value for October will be around 105 I guess…

Yes, but you cannot make reliable predictions based on a single number. You need to look at the broader picture. Current values of SN and 10.7cm flux are very similar to those in early December 2022, and we all know how the values leapt up in January 2023. Is there any reason why something similar should not happen again ? Another factor which may be relevant is the state of the polar fields - the WSO 20nHz filtered values show that field reversal has not yet taken place. How often has maximum been seen 4 or 5 months before reversal? The butterfly diagram is not yet showing any significant number of spots at lower latitude. Despite all that you could be correct, but you would gain more support if you showed that you had considered these factors.

[hamateur 1953]

To many people @3gMikepoints especially the latter may be difficult to understand, however they are very important when considering where we are in the present cycle.   Typically, when the solar cycle is at or close to maximum, the sunspots in BOTH hemispheres are very near the equator.  STCE in fact and probably every other organization follows sunspot latitudes very very closely. Independent of size or duration.

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, but you cannot make reliable predictions based on a single number. You need to look at the broader picture. Current values of SN and 10.7cm flux are very similar to those in early December 2022, and we all know how the values leapt up in January 2023. Is there any reason why something similar should not happen again ? Another factor which may be relevant is the state of the polar fields - the WSO 20nHz filtered values show that field reversal has not yet taken place. How often has maximum been seen 4 or 5 months before reversal? The butterfly diagram is not yet showing any significant number of spots at lower latitude. Despite all that you could be correct, but you would gain more support if you showed that you had considered these factors.

 

7 hours ago, MissNeona said:

Could the part where the sun could be changing it's vibration rate be a part of the shift?

Apparently happened before, might be happening again. 

https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19900806&slug=1086537

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/solar-system/a39572892/new-acoustic-wave-on-the-sun-defies-physics/

Fascinating article from the Seattle Times and it was worth the read.  I’ll not comment more on it, but frequency changes are usually relevant no matter what. Thanks for posting that.  Well, I will comment that it was from 1990 and cycles 22 and 23 were most certainly better than cycle 24. By Far.  I was going to post a link to the STCE 25 tracking as they have a great explanation how  sunspot average latitudes vs cycle peaks are derived, but although their main site is up presently, their tracking appears to be down.   I hope this is a temporary situation and possibly they are presently revising. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Comments

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 27/10/2023 om 15:42, 3gMike zei:

Yes, but you cannot make reliable predictions based on a single number. You need to look at the broader picture. Current values of SN and 10.7cm flux are very similar to those in early December 2022, and we all know how the values leapt up in January 2023. Is there any reason why something similar should not happen again ? Another factor which may be relevant is the state of the polar fields - the WSO 20nHz filtered values show that field reversal has not yet taken place. How often has maximum been seen 4 or 5 months before reversal? The butterfly diagram is not yet showing any significant number of spots at lower latitude. Despite all that you could be correct, but you would gain more support if you showed that you had considered these factors.

I have 5 other indicators that give May - July and especially July 2023. This isn’t abnormal. Check all the previous cycles… several have the maximum after 3.5 years🧗‍♂️

[hamateur 1953]

Sam????   I guess this is entertaining in a masochistic kind of way. Maybe move it to unproven theories next year when solar max has actually officially passed.  Patrick: you continue to ignore the points others have made above.  I use Jans charts on a regular basis as do others.  They have been very nice to you, I think. Perhaps you should reconsider the  average sunspot latitudes before posting again or join an organization dedicated to solar research. 

Edited October 29, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

17 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Sam????   I guess this is entertaining in a masochistic kind of way. Maybe move it to unproven theories next year when solar max has actually officially passed.  

List of solar cycles - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

 

[Jesterface23]

The past 2 cycles have had their maximum a little over 5 years past minimum. So what is there to say we won't have one peak somewhere from 2023-2024 and another peak in 2024-2025. Both around of each side of NOAA's single peak forecast line. Obviously this could mean nothing, but the second peak has risen higher and higher relative to the first peak over the previous 4 cycles. A long way to wait and see.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 29/10/2023 om 20:51, Jesterface23 zei:

The past 2 cycles have had their maximum a little over 5 years past minimum. So what is there to say we won't have one peak somewhere from 2023-2024 and another peak in 2024-2025. Both around of each side of NOAA's single peak forecast line. Obviously this could mean nothing, but the second peak has risen higher and higher relative to the first peak over the previous 4 cycles. A long way to wait and see.

We have an indicator that gives a 100 percent certainty that the maximum falls between May and July 2023. It will become clear in the next 3 weeks when the solar flux and ISN stay down. Still in review. It is related to the high resolution sunspots. Gives even the day of the maximum. See the site of Jan Alvestad for the previous maximum. 

[hamateur 1953]

Well you are only off by about a year there.  May/aug  2024 Is the most likely. Anyway, I was going to ask @3gMike what  the southern polar field is doing presently.  I believe it may have crossed zero again, it was close a few weeks ago, in any event.