AR 3445

[tniickck]

 it looks pretty strange and has a few deltas in it, deserves a topic

[mozy]

There's not a single delta currently, but it definitely could gain some if it keeps growing like this.

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

There's not a single delta currently, but it definitely could gain some if it keeps growing like this.

There are, look

they are small, but still deltas

[hamateur 1953]

https://www.solarham.net/aia131.htm

I don’t know about deltas in this AR but it is growing fast not unlike 3443 a bit ago and running the 48hr movie using the Solar Ham link shows lots of activity. Southern Hemisphere for a change, and time for development. Looks promising indeed! 

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, tniickck said:

There are, look

they are small, but still deltas

I wouldn't call the upper one a delta there, as there is some clear separation; the lower one might barely be one, but there seems to be some separation there as well. Right now the bottom one has developed into a definite delta, but the upper one still hasn't. There's also another region near the bottom, more to the right, which might also develop into a delta by the looks of how the complexity is developing there.

I'd say this has some potential, but the spots are all really small sadly, a common theme for many of the regions lately.

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I wouldn't call the upper one a delta there, as there is some clear separation; the lower one might barely be one, but there seems to be some separation there as well. Right now the bottom one has developed into a definite delta, but the upper one still hasn't. There's also another region near the bottom, more to the right, which might also develop into a delta by the looks of how the complexity is developing there.

I'd say this has some potential, but the spots are all really small sadly, a common theme for many of the regions lately.

thanks for the gif. love them  

[cgrant26]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

thanks for the gif. love them  

Yes! @Philalethes 's magnetogram/intensitygram gifs are awesome. I try to make and post gifs of things I'm talking about but the fade-betweens he makes really nail it.

Edited September 23, 2023 by cgrant26

[cheebee]

this one looks spicy to me too, looks like its brewing up.

[SpaceWeather5464]

There is a small filament dancing in this sunspot group, Hopefully it triggers a flare.

[hamateur 1953]

Well old 3435 sure hasn’t done anything for us.  Although 3443 is hot, its nearly out of the picture, if you take a look at the current face.  Although 3445 resembles a bad case of Acne it has nearly doubled in area within a day.  Our data seems to be down today. It will prove interesting when it returns. 3435 is at least old ‘13 that blew up on the backside last month as   @tniickckwas watching it if my memory is correct.  Perhaps it will regenerate.  It certainly hasn’t done much lately.  Edit: @Philalethesremark on the spots being smaller is valid.  This is typical of behaviour near Solar max for reasons unknown as far as I am aware.  During the declining years most sunspots occur nearer the solar equator and can become huge.  Thus giving them better chances at hitting us from a purely statistical perspective. We still have at least three, probably four more years of fun in store for us all imho.  Btw that fade in-fade out gif is waay cool!!   😎

Edited September 24, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Spots

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Edit: @Philalethesremark on the spots being smaller is valid.  This is typical of behaviour near Solar max for reasons unknown as far as I am aware.  During the declining years most sunspots occur nearer the solar equator and can become huge.

Interesting; I've read a little bit about intracycle differences in sunspot sizes, but not sure if I came across anything like that. Got any literature/articles/data or anything else as reference for that? Just curious to what extent it's common behavior that has been noted in the past, but that wouldn't surprise me. At least I'm aware that the biggest events typically do indeed come during the declining phase, so I'm certainly also looking forward to that.

[cgrant26]

Looks like a long-duration M class flare popping off now. It started at C7 and gradually increased.  It's now M1.91 and still going up.

 

EDIT:

M4.43 and climbing. Come on 3445, give us an X!

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by cgrant26

[Philalethes]

18 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

Looks like a long-duration M class flare popping off now. It started at C7 and gradually increased.  It's now M1.91 and still going up.

 

EDIT: M3.81 now

Pretty interesting flare, seems to have topped out at a bit over M4, at least for now. No sign of any eruption yet that I can see though.

Judging by the flux signature I'm not sure if it's actually a long-duration flare or just several impulsive ones popping off in a row, but if it's the latter it would explain the absence of any eruptive activity.

Could also be that it's just building towards something bigger too, I guess we'll see soon if we get any more fakeouts or not.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[cgrant26]

Yep. I jinxed it, lol

[hamateur 1953]

It still has time to build into something decent.  For now, a mid-level M is acceptable.   I wish I could remember specific notations as to the size thing being typically smaller near maximum but I cannot honestly.  The Carrington event was on the rising edge, so that is definitely the exception that proves the general rule. Hahaha!   😂😂

https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking

12 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

It still has time to build into something decent.  For now, a mid-level M is acceptable.   I wish I could remember specific notations as to the size thing being typically smaller near maximum but I cannot honestly.  The Carrington event was on the rising edge, so that is definitely the exception that proves the general rule. Hahaha!   😂😂

The site above is a hotlink to more data than anyone could possibly wish for btw.  I found it fascinating and probably others will as well.  I don’t know if the relative spot areas are included as any functions within their archives, but it wouldn’t surprise me.  Editing again. @Philalethes If you follow the above link you will find references to the Ap indices typically reaching maximum during the descent phases.  It goes into some detail under the CME section.  Hopefully this helps some.  

Edited September 24, 2023 by hamateur 1953
More info

[cheebee]

12 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

Yep. I jinxed it, lol

nah youre alright, i think we're still on

[MinYoongi]

i think this is the current delta ? @Philalethes maybe you can confirm with one of your great gifs.  

 

[mozy]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i think this is the current delta ? @Philalethes maybe you can confirm with one of your great gifs.  

 

Yup, region isn't looking as feisty anymore as yesterday though.

Edited September 24, 2023 by mozy

[MinYoongi]

Just now, mozy said:

Yup, region isn't looking as feisty anymore as yesterday though.

So is it losing complexity? Because flux and flares seem to be going up? I can see it glow on suvi.  

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So is it losing complexity? Because flux and flares seem to be going up? I can see it glow on suvi.  

I would say so yes, it's spreading more.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

I would say so yes, it's spreading more.

Thank you for the input! I sadly didn’t watch it yesterday (atleast not a lot) Wonder why it’s glowing and crackling like a little Christmas tree. 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

i think this is the current delta ? @Philalethes maybe you can confirm with one of your great gifs.  

 

Yep, that's the one, same as previously; here's the latest view:

As mozy says it seems to have been calming down though, the delta looks smaller and it seems like a lot of the small spots are fading out into penumbrae. I don't think this will be The Big One™ this time around, but still worth keeping an eye on I guess.