hamateur 1953 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) Well, I didn’t see that this guy had a thread yet. It has dealt out three C class and is looking like it may still be building into an M class guy. It seems to have consolidated in the last two days at least. Edited September 10, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Todays change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Newbie Posted September 10, 2023 Solution Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: Well, I didn’t see that this guy had a thread yet. It has dealt out three C class and is looking like it may still be building into an M class guy. It seems to have consolidated in the last two days at least. EKC is a good configuration for flares 20% chance of M 5% chance of X N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 Well ok then, it has a few days to get its CME stuff into gear for a shot at us. We all are overdue for a decent show down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 it is large, but not complex, so I dont expect anything from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 I won’t wager ya on this as that wouldn’t be appropriate here. But it has a couple more days until it gets to the west. Personally, I don’t think you will be disappointed in receiving a nice auroral display to photograph. My money is on this guy to deliver us a decent CME. 🤣🤣🤣 Regards Mikey/Hagrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: I won’t wager ya on this as that wouldn’t be appropriate here. But it has a couple more days until it gets to the west. Personally, I don’t think you will be disappointed in receiving a nice auroral display to photograph. My money is on this guy to deliver us a decent CME. 🤣🤣🤣 Regards Mikey/Hagrid It is the only AR that currently looks like it has any potential, and SWPC have given it a good rating. If this one doesn't deliver the goods then we will be kept waiting a bit longer. The latest photospheric map still suggests that the negative fields are relatively weak in all longitudes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) Yes. I checked Jan Alvestads site (STAR) Afterwards to see what he thought too. Gave it a decent chance. There is a lot of surface area for a delta to target was my thinking basically. And certainly in a nice equatorial position to nail us. I’m usually pessimistic, but these are decent odds. edit: still in a growth phase evidently, judging from the increase posted. Up to 420 mils today. Fingers crossed. 🤣 Edited September 10, 2023 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 11, 2023 Author Share Posted September 11, 2023 Hes a BG anyway officially. While as usual the limb sees action. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 12, 2023 Author Share Posted September 12, 2023 (edited) Looks like it finally did something. Not bad. Hopefully eruptive. M 2.58. Not too shabby. Edited September 12, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Magnitude was revised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 finally looks slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 Doesn't look eruptive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 there is something that looks like a full halo CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 12, 2023 Author Share Posted September 12, 2023 (edited) Yup, @Philalethes I would have to agree looking at what is available to us. It also appears that 3425 is beginning to resemble a scorpion in 131 ang. and seems to be pointing its claws at 3423. 6 hours ago, Philalethes said: Doesn't look eruptive to me. Edited September 12, 2023 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: It also appears that 3425 is beginning to resemble a scorpion in 131 ang. and seems to be pointing its claws at 3423. Ah, yes, divination using resemblance to animal figures, undoubtedly one of the most secure methods for forecasting activity levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 Yes, the last C flare on its departure around the bend only to receive its reactivation soon from Newbies minions. (Jk) See ya ‘ 23 once ya get your act together. 3413 due soon around north 10 latitude. Should be interesting to see what is left of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 (edited) 3423 is definitely underwhelming us today. Its fluxulator is probably in need of repairs. Perhaps a reorganization on the backside will do the trick. Time will tell. Edited September 13, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: 3423 is definitely underwhelming us today. Its fluxulator is probably in need of repairs. Perhaps a reorganization on the backside will do the trick. Time will tell. Don't worry, I'm sure it will come alive again at the limb. 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: Don't worry, I'm sure it will come alive again at the limb. 😄 Obligatory anthem for active regions approaching the limb. At least that's clearly where the party is at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 nice long M1 flare, must be very eruptive, but the position is not really good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 14, 2023 Author Share Posted September 14, 2023 Better than “ Taps” anyway!! 7 hours ago, Philalethes said: Obligatory anthem for active regions approaching the limb. At least that's clearly where the party is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 3 hours ago, tniickck said: nice long M1 flare, must be very eruptive, but the position is not really good Well, it doesn't have to be, but looks like there was an eruption around the beginning of it. Visible on LASCO now too, hard to say if it might have any component headed our way or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 36 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Well, it doesn't have to be, but looks like there was an eruption around the beginning of it. Visible on LASCO now too, hard to say if it might have any component headed our way or not. Funny, the C2 doesn’t look super promising, but I’d say there’s a pretty clear full halo (however faint) on C3, though for sure the bulk looks to be the northeast. Looks not super fast either, then again I’m not a great judge of speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 37 minutes ago, NEAurora said: Funny, the C2 doesn’t look super promising, but I’d say there’s a pretty clear full halo (however faint) on C3, though for sure the bulk looks to be the northeast. Looks not super fast either, then again I’m not a great judge of speed. Yeah, I can make out the appearance of a halo on C3. It's hard to say for sure what the speed is without knowing the exact direction, but going by the time from it becoming visible on C3 to its furthest extent I'd estimate around 600-700 km/s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 15, 2023 Author Share Posted September 15, 2023 If this was the one @tniickck looks like ya nailed it first. Jan Alvestad seems to agree. Interestingly for some reason ( simultaneous flaring?) lmsal ( solar soft) attributes it to 3429. hmmmm curiouser and curiouser!! On 9/12/2023 at 1:45 AM, tniickck said: there is something that looks like a full halo CME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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