In relation to the flare database update (and Cycle 25)

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Most of the flares in 2014 are in September - December 2014….

Repeat this year?🧐🤔

I'm not sure how you arrive at that conclusion. It is fair to say that there was a peak of activity in late October and early November, but looking at production of M and X flares it can be seen that January to August produced 123 M and 7 X flares, while September to December produced 85 M and 9 X flares. Certainly a higher proportion in the later period, but not most.

Looking at this year, we have currently seen 271 M and 11 X flares. Even if it continues at the same average rate for the rest of the year that would give us 393 M and 17 X flares and around 3350 including C flares. That would be pretty impressive.

[Philalethes]

6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Most of the flares in 2014 are in September - December 2014….

Repeat this year?🧐🤔

Presumably repeat during or soon after maximum, which is likely to be around middle of next year sometime.

[Sn00tplex]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I'm not sure how you arrive at that conclusion. It is fair to say that there was a peak of activity in late October and early November, but looking at production of M and X flares it can be seen that January to August produced 123 M and 7 X flares, while September to December produced 85 M and 9 X flares. Certainly a higher proportion in the later period, but not most.

Looking at this year, we have currently seen 271 M and 11 X flares. Even if it continues at the same average rate for the rest of the year that would give us 393 M and 17 X flares and around 3350 including C flares. That would be pretty impressive.

I'm assuming he meant large X class flares. Out of the 10 X2+ flares in 2014, only 3 of them were before September (using the new GOES scale).

[Solarflaretracker200]

On 9/4/2023 at 2:13 PM, Sn00tplex said:

2022, and 2023 (so far) look noticeably abnormal. The flare counts are way higher relative to their mean sunspot number when compared to prior years.

This is due to us getting closer and closer to solar max which is probably going to be around 2024-2025. Don't quote me on this, Lamo. I haven't been watching solar activity for months so this could have changed. The last time I checked (which has been several months) we were already surpassing or close to surpassing the official predictions which is nuts. 

 

On 9/5/2023 at 2:38 AM, Philalethes said:

more of the largest flares so far have occurred on the far side

Party zone isn't it? 😂

 

21 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Most of the flares in 2014 are in September - December 2014….

Repeat this year?🧐🤔

I mean, hey, I would take that, but unlike history, the sun doesn't really repeat itself lol.