CapeCodShade Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 (edited) So this region gave us an M flare in the nighttime hours (if you live in the USA) and produced a very speedy CME. Starting the discussion. According to SpaceWeather.com the CME was hurled out at 2.4 million mph. Wow!! I believe this flare also produced a fairly significant radio blackout in East China/Korea/Taiwan and a spike in the GOES Proton Flux around 7:30 UTC. Will the CME be headed for Earth? SpaceWeatherLive lists a partial halo CME with angular width of 126 degrees at 4 UTC… Edited July 10, 2023 by CapeCodShade Added Info and Posed Question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 It's hard to tell exactly which region in this cluster the flare/eruption came from, but I think it was this one; there was flaring (the M2-flare) and an associated eruption around 04:00 today (July 10). Eruption is clearly visible on LASCO imagery, and I'd estimate the initial speed at around ~1000 km/s, but it's hard to say exactly due to not knowing the exact angle of the eruption. Looks like a faint asymmetric halo, so maybe there's an Earth-directed component; if so I guess it will arrive sometime around the eve/night of July 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Vancanneyt Sander Posted July 10, 2023 Solution Share Posted July 10, 2023 M2.3 of last night was from region 3366 not 3358, topic merged with Philalethes. CME doesn’t look earth directed to me when looking at LASCO imagery (maybe very faint part assym full halo but very faint). proton levels slightly rose after the flare but below storm levels. EPAM also showed a slow increase so good indication but wouldn’t expect much from it anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapeCodShade Posted July 10, 2023 Author Share Posted July 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: M2.3 of last night was from region 3366 not 3358, topic merged with Philalethes. CME doesn’t look earth directed to me when looking at LASCO imagery (maybe very faint part assym full halo but very faint). proton levels slightly rose after the flare but below storm levels. EPAM also showed a slow increase so good indication but wouldn’t expect much from it anyway. Ah. Thank you so much for the clarification. Very appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 (edited) It is a surprising CME, actually pretty quick. Trying to see if we have a bulk hit or glancing blow though. ..... I think the L1 arrival time range is around mid day on the 12th to early afternoon on the 13th. The CME may pass by 1AU as early as late on the 11th/early 12th. Edited July 10, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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