AR3333

[Drax Spacex]

https://ibb.co/Y822s9F

Why hasn't this area been defined yet as an AR?  These small spots left of AR3332 have been visible for a several days, but no AR yet.  Are they still considered pores not sunspots?  Numerologists are waiting with eager anticipation!

[Jesterface23]

It looks like it would be 2 different regions if they are able to be given a number

[Newbie]

16 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

https://ibb.co/Y822s9F

Why hasn't this area been defined yet as an AR?  These small spots left of AR3332 have been visible for a several days, but no AR yet.  Are they still considered pores not sunspots?  Numerologists are waiting with eager anticipation!

It’s a plage area now. However there is a new area of sunspot growth to the left of AR3332 and closer to the East limb which has been circled as a potential new sunspot.

N.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Newbie

[ChefyStephie]

The dyscalculia crowd also waits with anticipation 😃

[Drax Spacex]

14 hours ago, Newbie said:

It’s a plage area now. However there is a new area of sunspot growth to the left of AR3332 and closer to the East limb which has been circled as a potential new sunspot.

N.

Yes, that region closer to the East limb does look like a better candidate.  The graph of daily sunspot number has been exhibiting about a 30-day periodicity of minima and maxima, we are currently on the downslope.

5 hours ago, ChefyStephie said:

The dyscalculia crowd also waits with anticipation 😃

I learned a new word today - yea!

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

The graph of daily sunspot number has been exhibiting about a 30-day periodicity of minima and maxima, we are currently on the downslope.

I've noticed this too, and I suspect it has to do with the state of the heliomagnetic field at the given longitudes. I've been looking a lot at HMI polar field data recently, and it seems quite evident that there's a roughly monthly oscillation that when looking at the overall slower field developments can only be ascribed to the fact that the fields have moved closer together at those longitudes. Plotting the last year of activity you can see this oscillation clearly:

What's interesting to note is that the northern and southern fields haven't moved in phase for the most part, so the oscillation is also discernible in the average field, especially pronounced during the past months when the southern field has stabilized and the northern field has oscillated wildly. To clarify again it is not that the fields themselves are moving that rapidly, but that the part of the field at those longitudes are moving more or less that much from rotation to rotation. If that's still unclear I'd be happy to clarify further what I mean.

My assumption is that the most interesting activity will be around the times when the average field moves towards zero; since these are taking the entire visible hemisphere it's not that easy to get a sense of exactly how the fields are moving except from rotation to rotation, but I'll be looking a bit more into that. Here's a closer view of the same plot for just so far this year:

Curiously the periods where the average field is closer to zero seems to roughly coincide with periods of heightened Solar activity on/from the visible disk and geomagnetic activity, but this also needs to be looked more into; the increased geomagnetic activity around the equinox is likely a combination of the increased Solar activity and the R-M and equinoctial effects that make geomagnetic activity more prevalent around the equinoctes.

As you mention, we're currently on a downslope of sunspot numbers, which I assume might be related to the fact that we're turning to face a part of the field which is further apart (although it looks like the southern field has moved closer to 0 there since the last rotation, bringing the the fields a bit closer together there so that the average field might not peak as high, more or less what's expected over time as the fields trend towards flipping). Barring any drastic field movements I'd venture to guess that we'll keep seeing that periodicity for a while longer, and that we'll start to see an increase again in a week or two, as the periodicity seems to be a bit longer than 30 days (closer to 35 days from eyeballing it).

Based on this pattern and from looking a bit at the expected IMF direction with regards to the R-M effect, I'd also make a general prediction that we will see an uptick in geomagnetic activity in the beginning of August, and a more notable increase towards the end of August/beginning of September, as that's when the two will coincide as it looks now.

[Drax Spacex]

https://ibb.co/f4gnCbJ

AR3333 has been designated - off to a good start with 10 sunspots.

[Jeanette Brown]

I didn't know numerologists use these numbers. In what sense? 

[Newbie]

20 hours ago, Jeanette Brown said:

I didn't know numerologists use these numbers. In what sense? 

I don’t believe they do, it perhaps needed to be appended with a jk.

I’m happy to be proven wrong though

On 6/14/2023 at 3:21 AM, Drax Spacex said:

I learned a new word today - yea!

Lol me too! I am a numerophile! 
😑

N.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

7 hours ago, Jeanette Brown said:

I didn't know numerologists use these numbers. In what sense? 

People who peddle woo will typically ascribe significance to numbers like 3333; it's an archetypical example of pseudoscience. As Wikipedia reads:

Quote

Numerology (known prior to the 20th century as arithmancy) is the belief in an occult, divine or mystical relationship between a number and one or more coinciding events.

Thus the joke is that numerologists are eagerly awaiting the designation of AR 3333 (even though it's really AR 13333) so that they can ascribe some such mystical significance to it. Whatever occult forces are selecting those numbers also seem strangely interested in a number system based on 10 rather than any of the other number systems that have been used throughout history; e.g. in a number system based on 8 the number 3333 would instead be 6405, and in binary it would be 110100000101, and so on. Suddenly it doesn't look quite as significant.

[Newbie]

13 hours ago, Philalethes said:

People who peddle woo will typically ascribe significance to numbers like 3333; it's an archetypical example of pseudoscience. As Wikipedia reads:

Thus the joke is that numerologists are eagerly awaiting the designation of AR 3333 (even though it's really AR 13333) so that they can ascribe some such mystical significance to it. Whatever occult forces are selecting those numbers also seem strangely interested in a number system based on 10 rather than any of the other number systems that have been used throughout history; e.g. in a number system based on 8 the number 3333 would instead be 6405, and in binary it would be 110100000101, and so on. Suddenly it doesn't look quite as significant.

Hahaha just had to buy in here PB!

 I’m sure the poster Jeanette Brown was wondering whether there was any significance in Sunspot Numbers per se. 
From where I sit down under there is none, it was all in light hearted jest.

i would also like to point out that there is a difference between a numerologist and a numerophile!

Just saying! 🤣

N.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Newbie said:

Hahaha just had to buy in here PB!

 I’m sure the poster Jeannette Brown was wondering whether there was any significance in Sunspot Numbers per se. 
From where I sit down under there is none, it was all in light hearted jest.

i would also like to point out that there is a difference between a numerologist and a numerophile!

Just saying! 🤣

N.

Heh, yeah, absolutely; as an avid and lifelong numerophile myself I would also like to publicly distance myself from numerology. 

As for what they were asking I interpreted it as honestly inquiring as to why a numerologist would be interested in those region designations, and my guess is that they generally wouldn't, but would gladly make something up about 3333 for their horoscopes, and then go to sleep until 4444 were to come around. Of course my answers are certainly partially in jest too, but there really are people who take that kind of thing seriously.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Philalethes

[Drax Spacex]

On 6/14/2023 at 2:22 AM, Philalethes said:

AR 3333 (even though it's really AR 13333)

Well, AR 13333 turned out to be a bit of a dud.

I did some searching on AR numbering - it started at AR 1 on January 5, 1972.

AR 10000 was reached on June 14, 2002.  This is confirmed in the archive here:  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2002/06/14/rsga.html

The 10000 is often subtracted (or modulus 10000), as in the above report:  "Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50), and Region 1 (N20E70)."

Onwards and upwards for Solar Cycle 409,090,934 !

Edited June 23, 2023 by Drax Spacex
onwards and upwards

[Philalethes]

8 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Well, AR 13333 turned out to be a bit of a dud.

I did some searching on AR numbering - it started at AR 1 on January 5, 1972.

AR 10000 was reached on June 14, 2002.  This is confirmed in the archive here:  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2002/06/14/rsga.html

The 10000 is often subtracted (or modulus 10000), as in the above report:  "Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50), and Region 1 (N20E70)."

Onwards and upwards for Solar Cycle 409,090,934 !

Oh yeah, definitely; I use the shorthand name myself all the time too, I primarily use the complete form when naming threads. Definitely more practical to omit it if the "1" in front will be there for a few decades.

It's interesting how we reached 10000 in 30 years, but now after 21 more years we're still only at 3351; I guess after SC25 is done we'll have made quite a bit of progress (especially if it continues like today, 16 ARs as per the homepage), but I'm sure the weakness of SC24 also contributed to this slow count.