Solar Activity Forecasts: what is possible and what's not?

[Chyren S]

Dear Friends,

Solar activities have been updated by the Big solar observatories so far. A very technical data and its outcome we see and study in our daily life, but a solar storm and geomagnetic storms are beyond our reach. Usually we detect a black spot, when its already created. We forecast a solar flare in coming 7-10 days based on the sighting. Is this possible to forecast a solar flare, its magnitude in advance. probably not, in the present scenario. 

there are a few forecasts, which have been given before any scientific finding and they were correct too. there are a few forecasts, which have been given months before the solar season. the question is... how?

This is possible. The Parker solar probe had given its first report on 4th December 2019, which told us that Solar flares or the light photons aren't travelling in all directions. this report has given us a clear idea and a birth to a new concept of solar flares in some particular direction, switch backs, twisting of a flare, vacuum or dust free zone etc. the Modern science has collected a mile stone and a few people had received an stamp on their practices as they derived all these results much before NASA. But background of this study is quite surprising.

Not everything, but a little bit science of this phenomenon can be discussed here. As per the modern science we have four fundamental forces. so far we don't have clear understanding of the same. SOmehow, gravity is also changing its own definition quietly. Earlier, the Gravity was considered to be a pulling force applied from the center of any mass. Now a days this is considered to be a force which allows planets to remain in their orbits. this also means that there could be couple of forces from different directions which allows planets to remain in their orbit, or the forces allow them to move in certain direction. this explains a lot. if the movement of celestial bodies is controlled by some kinda external forces, the energy production, its movement and dissolving is also influenced by the space. solving the mystery of space, its movement and such effect on other celestial objects can solve many of the problems.

please post your suggestions. probably, ill post more older pictures of the similar forecasts in future replies. End of the day, these theories can make science better with the help of scientific approach & the fact reports.

[Newbie]

Predicting solar sunspot activity is a challenging task that relies on various factors and models. Sunspots are dark areas on the surface of the Sun that are caused by intense magnetic activity. Solar sunspot activity follows a roughly 11-year cycle known as the solar cycle or sunspot cycle.

Historical Data: Scientists study past sunspot activity to identify recurring patterns and understand the behavior of solar cycles. This data is used as a basis for predicting future activity.

Solar Dynamo Models: Solar dynamo models simulate the Sun's internal processes to understand the generation and evolution of its magnetic field. These models aim to capture the underlying mechanisms responsible for sunspot cycles and provide insights into future activity.

Polar Magnetic Field Observations: The polar magnetic field of the Sun plays a crucial role in predicting solar activity. Observations of the Sun's polar magnetic field strength and its asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres can give indications of the upcoming cycle's strength.

Sunspot Number Prediction: The Sunspot Number is a commonly used metric to quantify solar activity. Predictive models based on statistical analysis, neural networks, or other techniques are used to forecast the Sunspot Number for future periods.

Precursor Methods: Several precursor methods look for early indicators of sunspot activity, such as the behavior of solar precursor magnetic fields, variations in solar irradiance, or the presence of certain types of solar flares.

It's important to note that while these methods and models can provide reasonable predictions, solar activity forecasting is not yet an exact science. The Sun is a complex system, and many factors can influence its behavior, leading to uncertainties in long-term predictions. Continuous monitoring and refinement of models are necessary to improve the accuracy of solar sunspot predictions.

N.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Chyren S said:

Usually we detect a black spot, when its already created. We forecast a solar flare in coming 7-10 days based on the sighting. Is this possible to forecast a solar flare, its magnitude in advance. probably not, in the present scenario.

As you probably know, those black spots are sunspots (at least I assume that's what you're referring to). The appearance of a sunspot is sadly not at all a guarantee of flares or activity; often sunspots will appear and do nothing, before at some point disappearing again. So forecasting a Solar flare from the appearance of a sunspot itself is not possible.

1 hour ago, Chyren S said:

there are a few forecasts, which have been given before any scientific finding and they were correct too. there are a few forecasts, which have been given months before the solar season. the question is... how?

This depends on what kind of forecast you're talking about. If by "before the Solar season" you mean before the 11-year Solar cycle starts up again after a minimum, then there are various methods people use to try to predict what the upcoming cycle will be like, but as far as I'm aware none of them are very accurate yet. As for predicting the timing of flares before the cycle even starts, that's certainly not possible at all, and if anyone gets that right it's most likely just winning the lottery (and people who make such predictions will be wrong more often than right; at least I'd like to see anyone who isn't).

1 hour ago, Chyren S said:

The Parker solar probe had given its first report on 4th December 2019, which told us that Solar flares or the light photons aren't travelling in all directions. this report has given us a clear idea and a birth to a new concept of solar flares in some particular direction, switch backs, twisting of a flare, vacuum or dust free zone etc.

Here you should probably distinguish between photons (quanta of electromagnetic radiation) and the Solar wind, which consists of massive particles like protons, electrons, and nuclei. When talking about switchbacks and twisting of flares, that's all referring to the magnetic field and thus the movement of the massive particles (which also happen to be electrically charged), not about photons. Photons are not affected by electric or magnetic fields, and are considered chargeless.

As for your statements about gravity, it's hard to make out what you're saying, but I don't think all of it is really accurate, at least not based on my own limited understanding of it. I don't think it's really that relevant to the topic, though, so I'll refrain from addressing it.

[Jesterface23]

Taking a look through a few things, you have a lot to learn still. Solar flares specifically have no connection to earthquakes, volcanoes, or weather on Earth. 

[Archmonoth]

8 hours ago, Chyren S said:

there are a few forecasts, which have been given before any scientific finding and they were correct too. there are a few forecasts, which have been given months before the solar season. the question is... how?

Longer trends are predicted with previous patterns. We can see spot occurrence increasing withing an active solar cycle, and also their location on the Sun. There is a butterfly effect, where the spots will trend towards the equator near the end of the active cycle. 

 

Predictions with CMEs are based on measurements of images and satellites on the speed and force of the CME, then a prediction is made on the time of arrival. 

 

Cycles are harder to predict due to limited measurements of the modern era. (The pattern history only goes back so far.)

8 hours ago, Chyren S said:

But background of this study is quite surprising.

What is surprising about it?

8 hours ago, Chyren S said:

SOmehow, gravity is also changing its own definition quietly.

The force of gravity is being explained differently as we expand our understanding, gravity itself is not changing. 

8 hours ago, Chyren S said:

Earlier, the Gravity was considered to be a pulling force applied from the center of any mass. Now a days this is considered to be a force which allows planets to remain in their orbits. this also means that there could be couple of forces from different directions which allows planets to remain in their orbit, or the forces allow them to move in certain direction. this explains a lot. if the movement of celestial bodies is controlled by some kinda external forces, the energy production, its movement and dissolving is also influenced by the space. solving the mystery of space, its movement and such effect on other celestial objects can solve many of the problems.

please post your suggestions. probably, ill post more older pictures of the similar forecasts in future replies. End of the day, these theories can make science better with the help of scientific approach & the fact reports.

Within General Relativity, gravity is considered the curvature of spacetime. Gravity - Wikipedia

 

The orbits of planets and gravity can also be described as a gutter or plateau where the force is low enough for other objects to remain. These are described clearly as Lagrange points: Lagrange point - Wikipedia 

 

Gravity is a radiant force, but it has shadows and curves, dips, and limits. For example, whenever the distance from an object is doubled, its influence of gravity is reduced by a factor of 4, this works the same for light (flux) sound, all sorts of forces and phenomena. This is described in the Inverse Square Law: Inverse-square law - Wikipedia 

 

So, when we predict the explosion and force of a CME or flare or other Solar event, we have to take these kinds of forces and phenomena into account. The CME might get dispersed by plasma and have large amounts of momentum and energy which are conserved. We do the best we can with the limited information on predicting how those conservations affect the direction, distance and magnitude of flares and CMEs. 

 

Also, flares CMEs and such do not affect volcanos, earthquakes, the stock market, climate change, or human psychology. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Archmonoth

[NEAurora]

4 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

Also, flares CMEs and such do not affect volcanos, earthquakes, the stock market, climate change, or human psychology. 

I don’t know, I bet a big enough CME could affect the stock market 😁

[ChefyStephie]

24 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

I don’t know, I bet a big enough CME could affect the stock market 😁

And the stock market isn’t even the most delicate thing on that list 🤣

 

As I understand it, there’s a healthy thread about such things in the “Unproven Theories” thread listed in “Other”. That seems like a great place for OP’s queries 🙂

[Chyren S]

18 hours ago, Newbie said:

Predicting solar sunspot activity is a challenging task that relies on various factors and models. Sunspots are dark areas on the surface of the Sun that are caused by intense magnetic activity. Solar sunspot activity follows a roughly 11-year cycle known as the solar cycle or sunspot cycle.

Historical Data: Scientists study past sunspot activity to identify recurring patterns and understand the behavior of solar cycles. This data is used as a basis for predicting future activity.

Solar Dynamo Models: Solar dynamo models simulate the Sun's internal processes to understand the generation and evolution of its magnetic field. These models aim to capture the underlying mechanisms responsible for sunspot cycles and provide insights into future activity.

Polar Magnetic Field Observations: The polar magnetic field of the Sun plays a crucial role in predicting solar activity. Observations of the Sun's polar magnetic field strength and its asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres can give indications of the upcoming cycle's strength.

Sunspot Number Prediction: The Sunspot Number is a commonly used metric to quantify solar activity. Predictive models based on statistical analysis, neural networks, or other techniques are used to forecast the Sunspot Number for future periods.

Precursor Methods: Several precursor methods look for early indicators of sunspot activity, such as the behavior of solar precursor magnetic fields, variations in solar irradiance, or the presence of certain types of solar flares.

It's important to note that while these methods and models can provide reasonable predictions, solar activity forecasting is not yet an exact science. The Sun is a complex system, and many factors can influence its behavior, leading to uncertainties in long-term predictions. Continuous monitoring and refinement of models are necessary to improve the accuracy of solar sunspot predictions.

N.

These are too many details. we know that sun spots are formed and sometimes they follow a pattern too. various methods are available. every single theory is logical based on present data. though, none of them is a 100% solution to any query. will work on them. thanks for the details provided.

though we have talked about something else. the source of it can be discovered if you know little bit of the formulation of this universe. we just need to find out the source of the formation. how, a cold fusion is taking place, how this solar system and the Sun is working. just have a look on the below forecast given in mid of year 2022.... 

a few dates have been given in year 2022 for year 2023. if you analyze them, you will find that mid of November 2022 we had a solar flare, then on 5-6th January 2023 X class, then on 28th April, again Huge solar flares with X class, n next probability comes in August 2023. A long lasting slow moving solar hue will follow the Earth. the Space pressure these days is really high and in this case 12-13th June may also get a few solar hick ups. Once the solar flares start hitting the Earth from first week of August 2023, this will continue till mid of September 2023. though the cyclonic season will also be at the peak in these months.

in below replies you may find more of old forecasts and their confirmation. this reply is to keep in record for coming time.

[Chyren S]

19 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Taking a look through a few things, you have a lot to learn still. Solar flares specifically have no connection to earthquakes, volcanoes, or weather on Earth. 

yes indeed. Specially the data analysis, which can help us in implementing a 100% forecast ability for CME and other things. 

15 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

Within General Relativity, gravity is considered the curvature of spacetime. Gravity - Wikipedia

you are true to the definition given my friend. But how many of us really understand this? you.... NO...... me either........... a BIG NO. i wonder if you can find somebody who really understand the 100% Space & 100% time... if no, then who will understand the curvature of time. when i solved the time dilation in the galactic space and in the present universe, what i came to know was........ that nobody in our world has solved this so far. if we have some calculations based on ancient history, there, too, only the date is available, which is nowhere relevant to logic and calculations.

Gravity is something else. this is the bigtime imbalance generated through the collision of two most powerful energies in our world. there are factors which decide the quantum of gravity on or close to any planet or mass. Gravity is a force of a free space, where the excellence of freedom or the vacuum barriers may decide the strength of gravity. Someday, we can discuss this in detail. 

just remember that Gravity is something, which is generated through the collision between two invisible air moving in opposite direction. the resultant force of this collision is accounted as gravity.......... let me know if you are able to conceptualize this.

thanks dear. 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Chyren S said:

These are too many details. we know that sun spots are formed and sometimes they follow a pattern too. various methods are available. every single theory is logical based on present data. though, none of them is a 100% solution to any query. will work on them. thanks for the details provided.

though we have talked about something else. the source of it can be discovered if you know little bit of the formulation of this universe. we just need to find out the source of the formation. how, a cold fusion is taking place, how this solar system and the Sun is working. just have a look on the below forecast given in mid of year 2022.... 

a few dates have been given in year 2022 for year 2023. if you analyze them, you will find that mid of November 2022 we had a solar flare, then on 5-6th January 2023 X class, then on 28th April, again Huge solar flares with X class, n next probability comes in August 2023. A long lasting slow moving solar hue will follow the Earth. the Space pressure these days is really high and in this case 12-13th June may also get a few solar hick ups. Once the solar flares start hitting the Earth from first week of August 2023, this will continue till mid of September 2023. though the cyclonic season will also be at the peak in these months.

in below replies you may find more of old forecasts and their confirmation. this reply is to keep in record for coming time.

Please post this type of stuff in this thread, as most of it is extremely speculative. Make sure to provide some information about how exactly you are making your predictions so that people can scrutinize it and attempt to uncover predictions that do not turn out to be correct (falsification is at the heart of science). You should probably also provide some indication about what level of flaring you think will happen, because in both November last year and April this year there was only M-flaring, which is becoming more and more common in general as maximum approaches. Pointing to an arbitrary day in late April when the entirety of May saw high levels of flaring throughout is not that impressive at all; peak activity of that period came much later than +/- 7 days from April 30, and was rather around the middle of May. And around November 2022 there was barely any activity at all, the biggest within +/- 7 days of that date being a meager M1.6, so I would personally consider that a failed prediction when you look at all the periods of increased activity you could have predicted instead, as small M-flares are happening very frequently these days. In January there was at least some notable activity, but it's impossible for anyone to know whether you're just guessing wildly and getting one right for every dozen you get wrong, or whether you actually are predicting something correctly, considering that the other predictions were not particularly impressive.

I certainly have my strong doubts, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong; post in that thread with the theoretical basis of your predictions and more precisely what you are predicting, and then we will let time be the judge. The administrators made that thread specifically because the forum was getting cluttered up with posts like the ones you are making now, so I'd respect their wishes and confine it to there.

[Chyren S]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Please post this type of stuff in this thread, as most of it is extremely speculative. Make sure to provide some information about how exactly you are making your predictions so that people can scrutinize it and attempt to uncover predictions that do not turn out to be correct (falsification is at the heart of science). You should probably also provide some indication about what level of flaring you think will happen, because in both November last year and April this year there was only M-flaring, which is becoming more and more common in general as maximum approaches. Pointing to an arbitrary day in late April when the entirety of May saw high levels of flaring throughout is not that impressive at all; peak activity of that period came much later than +/- 7 days from April 30, and was rather around the middle of May. And around November 2022 there was barely any activity at all, the biggest within +/- 7 days of that date being a meager M1.6, so I would personally consider that a failed prediction when you look at all the periods of increased activity you could have predicted instead, as small M-flares are happening very frequently these days. In January there was at least some notable activity, but it's impossible for anyone to know whether you're just guessing wildly and getting one right for every dozen you get wrong, or whether you actually are predicting something correctly, considering that the other predictions were not particularly impressive.

I certainly have my strong doubts, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong; post in that thread with the theoretical basis of your predictions and more precisely what you are predicting, and then we will let time be the judge. The administrators made that thread specifically because the forum was getting cluttered up with posts like the ones you are making now, so I'd respect their wishes and confine it to there.

Hello Mr. Administrator,

Thanks for your msg. 

We have our parallel studies. a few new definitions and our own understanding on the topics where modern science is not clear. Yes, we agree that our predictions are based on mostly logical data and quantitative reports can not be generated so far. For this reason only, i seek the help of scientific reports and data. otherwise, whatever we forecast, predict or calculate, we do this by sitting at our cozy corner at home. Your are probably right that we must have a separate thread for this. thank you for putting all efforts.

We work on theory of everything and we believe that we know the structure and functioning of universe a little better. i would love to feel free while posting all the calculations, if you suggest and ensure that this platform is safe to share any new theory, data or calculations. We have been doing this for a long time now and i hope, you know that forecasting a solar season, cyclonic season and earthquakes a year before it happens is not really easy.

Current solar cycle is performing beyond expectations. 2023 is the first year, where i really felt challenging in current atmospheric conditions. there could be a difference in our understanding of peak or intensified solar attack. We are together in this work. We'll share n learn each others' ways of putting things into right order.

I really feel that we can add some value to global science. i would love to share. I would also love to have panel discussions if there is any possibility in this forum.

Much appreciated.

thanking you again.

[Newbie]

2 hours ago, Chyren S said:Gravity is a force of a free space, where the excellence of freedom or the vacuum barriers may decide the strength of gravity. Someday, we can discuss this in detail. 

just remember that Gravity is something, which is generated through the collision between two invisible air moving in opposite direction. the resultant force of this collision is accounted as gravity.......... let me know if you are able to conceptualize this.

thanks dear. 

In classical physics, gravity is considered a force that acts between two objects with mass. However, in the context of general relativity, which is a more modern theory of gravity, gravity is not considered a force but rather the curvature of spacetime caused by mass and energy.

According to general relativity, the presence of mass or energy warps the fabric of spacetime, and objects move along curved paths in response to this curvature. The curvature of spacetime is what we perceive as the force of gravity. In this framework, gravity is not a force in the traditional sense but rather a consequence of the geometry of spacetime.

So, in the context of general relativity, there are no specific circumstances where gravity would not be considered a force. However, it's worth noting that in certain regimes, such as in extreme gravitational fields near black holes or during the early moments of the universe, the effects of gravity become intertwined with quantum mechanics, and a complete understanding of gravity requires a theory of quantum gravity, which is an ongoing area of research. In such extreme conditions, our current understanding of gravity may need to be modified or extended.

N.

[Philalethes]

30 minutes ago, Chyren S said:

Hello Mr. Administrator,

Thanks for your msg. 

We have our parallel studies. a few new definitions and our own understanding on the topics where modern science is not clear. Yes, we agree that our predictions are based on mostly logical data and quantitative reports can not be generated so far. For this reason only, i seek the help of scientific reports and data. otherwise, whatever we forecast, predict or calculate, we do this by sitting at our cozy corner at home. Your are probably right that we must have a separate thread for this. thank you for putting all efforts.

We work on theory of everything and we believe that we know the structure and functioning of universe a little better. i would love to feel free while posting all the calculations, if you suggest and ensure that this platform is safe to share any new theory, data or calculations. We have been doing this for a long time now and i hope, you know that forecasting a solar season, cyclonic season and earthquakes a year before it happens is not really easy.

Current solar cycle is performing beyond expectations. 2023 is the first year, where i really felt challenging in current atmospheric conditions. there could be a difference in our understanding of peak or intensified solar attack. We are together in this work. We'll share n learn each others' ways of putting things into right order.

I really feel that we can add some value to global science. i would love to share. I would also love to have panel discussions if there is any possibility in this forum.

Much appreciated.

thanking you again.

I'm not an administrator, I was simply pointing out why they created that thread and why you should be posting this in that thread.

And yes, forecasting Solar activity is extremely difficult, bordering on impossible over long periods of time other than very general patterns like the 11-year Solar cycle. This is why claiming to be able to predict some of the things you're claiming is typically met with a lot of skepticism, and with good reason given the lack of evidence. Ties between seismic activity and weather patterns are also far from established, although there might exist certain weak relationships there; claiming to be able to forecast those should subsequently be met with even more skepticism. People have been working on earthquake prediction for decades without much success, and to be quite frank my impression here is that you don't have a very good grasp of the subject matter.

Again, I'd love to be proven wrong, but you'd have to provide a solid theoretical basis for your predictions, and those predictions would have to be very accurate; the predictions you've provided so far have not been very accurate at all.

Everyone can potentially add value to the collective corpus of human knowledge, but it does require making oneself acquainted with what people have already investigated and uncovered, and what problems have been encountered along the way. Trying to bypass this process and making unfounded assertions that you then proceed to try to convince yourself are correct through bias and fallacious reasoning is definitely not the way to go. Even the greatest geniuses throughout scientific history tend to stand on the proverbial shoulders of giants to various extents.

Hopefully further posts about your theories will be made in that thread, at least.

PS: You already posted the above image earlier, just a few posts ago; there's no point in posting it twice, that's bordering on spam.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Philalethes

[Newbie]

5 hours ago, Chyren S said:

though we have talked about something else. the source of it can be discovered if you know little bit of the formulation of this universe. we just need to find out the source of the formation. how, a cold fusion is taking place, how this solar system and the Sun is working. 

When a main sequence star has consumed all of its hydrogen fuel, several significant changes occur in its structure and behavior. Let's explore what happens:

Core Contraction: As the hydrogen fusion reactions cease in the core, there is no longer an outward pressure to counterbalance the gravitational force. The core begins to contract due to gravity, leading to an increase in temperature and density.

Shell Burning: As the core contracts, the outer layers of the star expand, causing the temperature and pressure to rise in the hydrogen-rich shell surrounding the core. This increase in temperature ignites a new phase of hydrogen fusion called shell burning. The star begins to burn hydrogen in a shell around the core while the core continues to contract.

Expansion and Brightening: With the shell burning, the outer envelope of the star swells, causing it to expand in size. As the surface area of the star increases, it also becomes brighter. This expansion and increase in brightness characterize the star's transition to the red giant phase.

Helium Fusion: Eventually, as the core continues to contract and heat up, the temperature reaches a point where helium fusion can begin. The core becomes hot and dense enough for helium atoms to fuse into heavier elements like carbon and oxygen through the triple-alpha process. This phase is called helium burning and occurs in a shell surrounding the contracted core.

Stellar Evolution: The progression of stellar evolution beyond the main sequence depends on the mass of the star. Low-mass stars, like our Sun, will become red giants and eventually shed their outer layers, forming a planetary nebula and leaving behind a compact remnant known as a white dwarf. High-mass stars, on the other hand, may go through a series of fusion reactions, forming progressively heavier elements until they reach iron, at which point the core collapses in a supernova explosion, leaving behind a dense remnant like a neutron star or a black hole.

It's important to note that the exact details of a star's evolution after the main sequence depend on its mass. Higher-mass stars have shorter lifetimes and undergo more violent events, while lower-mass stars evolve more gradually and peacefully.

Main sequence stars are the most common type of stars in the universe, characterized by their stable fusion of hydrogen into helium. These stellar powerhouses play a crucial role in shaping the cosmos and serve as fundamental building blocks in our understanding of stellar evolution. 

Characteristics of Main Sequence Stars: Main sequence stars possess distinct features that set them apart from other types of stars. They exhibit a predictable relationship between their luminosity, temperature, and radius, forming an easily identifiable curve on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. This diagram showcases the diversity of main sequence stars, ranging from cool and dim red dwarfs to hot and luminous blue giants. The characteristics of main sequence stars are determined by their mass, with more massive stars being larger, hotter, and brighter than their less massive counterparts.

The Energy Generation Process: The central core of a main sequence star serves as a crucible of nuclear fusion. Within this core, the intense temperature and pressure conditions enable hydrogen atoms to collide and merge, transforming into helium through a process known as proton-proton chain fusion. This fusion reaction releases an enormous amount of energy in the form of photons, which gradually make their way through the star's layers before escaping into space as visible light.

Life Cycle of Main Sequence Stars: The life cycle of a main sequence star is primarily governed by its mass. Low-mass stars, such as red dwarfs, have longer life spans, burning their hydrogen fuel at a slow and steady rate. On the other hand, high-mass stars, such as blue giants, have shorter but more intense lives, consuming their hydrogen fuel at a rapid pace. As main sequence stars age, the composition of their cores changes, and the balance between gravitational forces and internal pressure shifts, leading to eventual transformations.

Star Formation: The formation of main sequence stars begins within molecular clouds, regions of space rich in gas and dust. Gravitational collapse, triggered by various factors like shockwaves from nearby supernovae or the collision of clouds, initiates the process. As the cloud collapses under its self-gravity, it fragments into denser regions called protostellar cores. Within these cores, gas and dust continue to accrete onto the central protostar, increasing its mass and temperature. Once the core reaches a critical threshold, nuclear fusion is ignited, and the protostar is born as a main sequence star.

Stellar Evolution: Throughout their lives, main sequence stars maintain a delicate equilibrium between the inward force of gravity and the outward force of radiation pressure. This balance is sustained by the energy released through nuclear fusion in their cores. However, as hydrogen fuel depletes, the core contracts, causing an increase in temperature and pressure. These changes trigger the expansion of the star's outer layers, leading to its transition from the main sequence to the next stage of stellar evolution.

Beyond the Main Sequence: When a main sequence star exhausts its hydrogen fuel, its core contracts further, while the outer layers expand, transforming the star into a red giant or supergiant. The increased temperature and pressure in the core enable the fusion of helium into heavier elements, such as carbon and oxygen. This phase lasts until the star reaches a critical point where it can no longer sustain nuclear fusion. The star's fate then depends on its mass, leading to the formation of white dwarfs, neutron stars, or even supernovae.

Significance of Main Sequence Stars: Main sequence stars are not only vital for understanding stellar evolution but also play a crucial role in the formation of planetary systems. The energy emitted by main sequence stars provides the necessary heat and light for planetary bodies to sustain life. Additionally, the death of massive main sequence stars through supernovae explosions disperses heavy elements into space, enriching the interstellar medium and paving the way for the creation of subsequent generations of stars and planets.

N.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Newbie

[Jesterface23]

3 hours ago, Chyren S said:

22 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Taking a look through a few things, you have a lot to learn still. Solar flares specifically have no connection to earthquakes, volcanoes, or weather on Earth. 

yes indeed. Specially the data analysis, which can help us in implementing a 100% forecast ability for CME and other things. 

Just to see what you know, how can you tell when a CME launches and when we are impacted by it?

[ChefyStephie]

Honestly, three gold stars to everyone replying with earnest data and trying to make sense of things in this thread. 
 

I think I’d just like to pop in to ask folks to recall the lessons learned in the children’s tale “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. He said he was cloaked in the greatest finery. But a child called it for what it was. Then everyone snapped out of it, and headed back to the things in their lives that were valuable to them. 

[Chyren S]

3 hours ago, Newbie said:

In classical physics, gravity is considered a force that acts between two objects with mass. However, in the context of general relativity, which is a more modern theory of gravity, gravity is not considered a force but rather the curvature of spacetime caused by mass and energy.

According to general relativity, the presence of mass or energy warps the fabric of spacetime, and objects move along curved paths in response to this curvature. The curvature of spacetime is what we perceive as the force of gravity. In this framework, gravity is not a force in the traditional sense but rather a consequence of the geometry of spacetime.

So, in the context of general relativity, there are no specific circumstances where gravity would not be considered a force. However, it's worth noting that in certain regimes, such as in extreme gravitational fields near black holes or during the early moments of the universe, the effects of gravity become intertwined with quantum mechanics, and a complete understanding of gravity requires a theory of quantum gravity, which is an ongoing area of research. In such extreme conditions, our current understanding of gravity may need to be modified or extended.

N.

Thanks for your reply N. I am really amazed to see thorough knowledge of people in this forum. But as I said, I beg to differ. I already replied to somebody in this forum that, understanding Gravity as per theory of general relativity will demand you to understand the space and time first. This theory talks about the curvature of the space & time.

Do we know time? Do we know everything in space? NO. Did anybody earlier knew about them? NO. Then there is a big NO for this theory. Soon I'll give you the right definition of Gravity and you can check this by any means. This will be valid (not only in Earth) everywhere in this universe.

You have also spoken about the black hole. I don't know if we call a black hole yet, as there is no hole in the structure. This is just a solid body like any other planet. I think, a Noble prize has been given for this discovery in 2021, I suppose. If you are assuming any theory considering a black hole, I fear that may not be valid for long.

We are waiting for some science body to discover something new. We can do it here in this forum. Let's start it tomorrow onwards.

Thanks a lot for your reply dear.

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Just to see what you know, how can you tell when a CME launches and when we are impacted by it?

Yes

 We can forecast a solar activity months and years before it starts. We look forward to have more data collection so that we can forecast the strength and actual affected area also. We look forward to develop a system/ software, which may complete our requirement of data.

Working in the same direction.

[Jesterface23]

11 minutes ago, Chyren S said:

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Just to see what you know, how can you tell when a CME launches and when we are impacted by it?

Yes

 We can forecast a solar activity months and years before it starts. We look forward to have more data collection so that we can forecast the strength and actual affected area also. We look forward to develop a system/ software, which may complete our requirement of data.

Working in the same direction.

That is not what I was asking. I'm not sure if it is lost in translation.

Overall there is no way to predict flare strengths or CME launches/L1 arrivals so far in advanced. The Sun is too unpredictable.

That is all that I have left to say.

[Archmonoth]

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

you are true to the definition given my friend. But how many of us really understand this? you.... NO...... me either........... a BIG NO.

You were claiming it's fairly unknown, which it's not. We know what spacetime is. We can measure space, we can measure curves in space and time. We can measure differences between one place and another. We know that energy is conserved in time, and momentum is conserved in space. I understand these, plenty of other people understand these. 

 

For learning about spacetime, or laws of conservation I would recommend starting with these wikis, ready the cited articles, perhaps take a class or ask some people on forums about the areas which seem unclear:

Gravitational collapse - Wikipedia

Conservation law - Wikipedia

Spacetime - Wikipedia

 

The main boundary of understanding is in how entangled small things on the quantum level interact with these KNOWN concepts. 

 

So YES, a big YES, we understand quite a bit about gravity and spacetime. 

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

i wonder if you can find somebody who really understand the 100% Space & 100% time... if no, then who will understand the curvature of time.

But.. they do, and it is measured. Here is an example: Interplanetary Transport Network - Wikipedia

Just because you don't understand it, doesn't mean it's not understood. 

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

when i solved the time dilation in the galactic space and in the present universe, what i came to know was........ that nobody in our world has solved this so far. if we have some calculations based on ancient history, there, too, only the date is available, which is nowhere relevant to logic and calculations. 

Time dilation is a phenomenon from approaching light speed in General Relativity, how did you solve it? What did you solve? I don't understand your statement, can you try again? 

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

Gravity is something else.

I have a feeling you WANT it to be something else. 

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

this is the bigtime imbalance generated through the collision of two most powerful energies in our world.

What 2 energies would those be?

12 hours ago, Chyren S said:

there are factors which decide the quantum of gravity on or close to any planet or mass. Gravity is a force of a free space, where the excellence of freedom or the vacuum barriers may decide the strength of gravity. Someday, we can discuss this in detail. 

just remember that Gravity is something, which is generated through the collision between two invisible air moving in opposite direction. the resultant force of this collision is accounted as gravity.......... let me know if you are able to conceptualize this.

thanks dear. 

I really don't mean to be condescending, but you have a gap in your knowledge. You are using vague terms to describe phenomena. 

 

What does " excellence of freedom.. " mean? 

What does ".. two invisible air moving in opposite direction. " mean? 

 

Please clarify your vague descriptions. 

 

6 hours ago, Chyren S said:

Do we know time? Do we know everything in space? NO. Did anybody earlier knew about them? NO. Then there is a big NO for this theory. Soon I'll give you the right definition of Gravity and you can check this by any means. This will be valid (not only in Earth) everywhere in this universe.

We don't need absolute knowledge to know SOMETHING. We can know about gravity, measure it, predict it, even navigate it without knowing everything. 

6 hours ago, Chyren S said:

You have also spoken about the black hole. I don't know if we call a black hole yet, as there is no hole in the structure. This is just a solid body like any other planet. I think, a Noble prize has been given for this discovery in 2021, I suppose. If you are assuming any theory considering a black hole, I fear that may not be valid for long.

I feel like trying to explain a singularity without understanding what spacetime is, might be preemptive. I will give it a try: In the previous wiki I linked there is a picture of the thresholds of gravitational collapse, this is a barrier in how curved something can be before it becomes a closed system. This closed system can have spin, mass, energy, like anything else, but its curvature prevents light from escaping.

 

There are stars heavier than blackholes, and blackholes which hold billions of stars in orbits, it's not a hole in how you think of a hole on paper or fabric, but a hole, as in a sharp curvature in spacetime. 

 

6 hours ago, Chyren S said:

We are waiting for some science body to discover something new. We can do it here in this forum. Let's start it tomorrow onwards.

Science uses specific language and measurements to describe things. Using vague terms creates ambiguity (multiple meanings) and vagueness. (Lack of definition, whereas anything can be true)

7 hours ago, ChefyStephie said:

Honestly, three gold stars to everyone replying with earnest data and trying to make sense of things in this thread. 

It's a good exercise in expressing concepts even if it does nothing. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Archmonoth

[Sam Warfel]

I’m not sure anything productive is coming out of this discussion, although I commend Newbie, Arch, and others for trying. 

I would also like to remind folks that this discussion has strayed from the topic of these forums.

[Nilesh]

13 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

That is not what I was asking. I'm not sure if it is lost in translation.

Overall there is no way to predict flare strengths or CME launches/L1 arrivals so far in advanced. The Sun is too unpredictable.

That is all that I have left to say.

If you know the cause , you will find the remedy 

17 hours ago, Newbie said:

When a main sequence star has consumed all of its hydrogen fuel, several significant changes occur in its structure and behavior. Let's explore what happens:

Core Contraction: As the hydrogen fusion reactions cease in the core, there is no longer an outward pressure to counterbalance the gravitational force. The core begins to contract due to gravity, leading to an increase in temperature and density.

Shell Burning: As the core contracts, the outer layers of the star expand, causing the temperature and pressure to rise in the hydrogen-rich shell surrounding the core. This increase in temperature ignites a new phase of hydrogen fusion called shell burning. The star begins to burn hydrogen in a shell around the core while the core continues to contract.

Expansion and Brightening: With the shell burning, the outer envelope of the star swells, causing it to expand in size. As the surface area of the star increases, it also becomes brighter. This expansion and increase in brightness characterize the star's transition to the red giant phase.

Helium Fusion: Eventually, as the core continues to contract and heat up, the temperature reaches a point where helium fusion can begin. The core becomes hot and dense enough for helium atoms to fuse into heavier elements like carbon and oxygen through the triple-alpha process. This phase is called helium burning and occurs in a shell surrounding the contracted core.

Stellar Evolution: The progression of stellar evolution beyond the main sequence depends on the mass of the star. Low-mass stars, like our Sun, will become red giants and eventually shed their outer layers, forming a planetary nebula and leaving behind a compact remnant known as a white dwarf. High-mass stars, on the other hand, may go through a series of fusion reactions, forming progressively heavier elements until they reach iron, at which point the core collapses in a supernova explosion, leaving behind a dense remnant like a neutron star or a black hole.

It's important to note that the exact details of a star's evolution after the main sequence depend on its mass. Higher-mass stars have shorter lifetimes and undergo more violent events, while lower-mass stars evolve more gradually and peacefully.

Main sequence stars are the most common type of stars in the universe, characterized by their stable fusion of hydrogen into helium. These stellar powerhouses play a crucial role in shaping the cosmos and serve as fundamental building blocks in our understanding of stellar evolution. 

Characteristics of Main Sequence Stars: Main sequence stars possess distinct features that set them apart from other types of stars. They exhibit a predictable relationship between their luminosity, temperature, and radius, forming an easily identifiable curve on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. This diagram showcases the diversity of main sequence stars, ranging from cool and dim red dwarfs to hot and luminous blue giants. The characteristics of main sequence stars are determined by their mass, with more massive stars being larger, hotter, and brighter than their less massive counterparts.

The Energy Generation Process: The central core of a main sequence star serves as a crucible of nuclear fusion. Within this core, the intense temperature and pressure conditions enable hydrogen atoms to collide and merge, transforming into helium through a process known as proton-proton chain fusion. This fusion reaction releases an enormous amount of energy in the form of photons, which gradually make their way through the star's layers before escaping into space as visible light.

Life Cycle of Main Sequence Stars: The life cycle of a main sequence star is primarily governed by its mass. Low-mass stars, such as red dwarfs, have longer life spans, burning their hydrogen fuel at a slow and steady rate. On the other hand, high-mass stars, such as blue giants, have shorter but more intense lives, consuming their hydrogen fuel at a rapid pace. As main sequence stars age, the composition of their cores changes, and the balance between gravitational forces and internal pressure shifts, leading to eventual transformations.

Star Formation: The formation of main sequence stars begins within molecular clouds, regions of space rich in gas and dust. Gravitational collapse, triggered by various factors like shockwaves from nearby supernovae or the collision of clouds, initiates the process. As the cloud collapses under its self-gravity, it fragments into denser regions called protostellar cores. Within these cores, gas and dust continue to accrete onto the central protostar, increasing its mass and temperature. Once the core reaches a critical threshold, nuclear fusion is ignited, and the protostar is born as a main sequence star.

Stellar Evolution: Throughout their lives, main sequence stars maintain a delicate equilibrium between the inward force of gravity and the outward force of radiation pressure. This balance is sustained by the energy released through nuclear fusion in their cores. However, as hydrogen fuel depletes, the core contracts, causing an increase in temperature and pressure. These changes trigger the expansion of the star's outer layers, leading to its transition from the main sequence to the next stage of stellar evolution.

Beyond the Main Sequence: When a main sequence star exhausts its hydrogen fuel, its core contracts further, while the outer layers expand, transforming the star into a red giant or supergiant. The increased temperature and pressure in the core enable the fusion of helium into heavier elements, such as carbon and oxygen. This phase lasts until the star reaches a critical point where it can no longer sustain nuclear fusion. The star's fate then depends on its mass, leading to the formation of white dwarfs, neutron stars, or even supernovae.

Significance of Main Sequence Stars: Main sequence stars are not only vital for understanding stellar evolution but also play a crucial role in the formation of planetary systems. The energy emitted by main sequence stars provides the necessary heat and light for planetary bodies to sustain life. Additionally, the death of massive main sequence stars through supernovae explosions disperses heavy elements into space, enriching the interstellar medium and paving the way for the creation of subsequent generations of stars and planets.

N.

Wow !