21 minutes ago, Bry said:

This article suggests that -Bz geomagnetic storms are more likely during the spring equinox when the jet stream crosses through the northern hemisphere due to earths tilt (or Russel-McPherron effect) at that time.

“[2] The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity has been recognized for a long period of time [Cortie, 1912], which shows the maximum appears around equinoxes while the minimum appears around solstices, e.g., geomagnetic storm annual distribution [Echer et al., 2011]. Over the decades, several explanations for this variation have been put forward, such as the axial hypothesis, the equinoctial hypothesis and the Russell-McPherron effect [Cortie, 1912; Bartels, 1932; McIntosh, 1959; Svalgaard, 1977; Russell and McPherron, 1973].”

I wonder if this is just for the northern hemisphere and if people in the Southern Hemisphere might have a different experience.

I would expect future CME’s to have a more +Bz or positive/northern magnetic field component as we exit the spring equinox aurora season based off this data. I’m wondering if experienced aurora hunters find this to be generally true.

I don’t see auroras at my latitude so I can’t confirm either way but I see the importance of being able to communicate the diversity in people’s experiences between the Northern vs Southern Hemisphere considering the potential impacts of the South Atlantic Anomaly.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012JA017845#:~:text=Geomagnetic activity are rather strong,the Sun%2C which is identical

The impact of time of year on geomagnetic activity is definitely true and visibly shows up in Kp- and Ap-indices. As you quote, this has been known for quite some time.

I believe however the question in this case was more about why the CME itself was slower than anticipated and didn't hit us very well despite the visible halo, as this is rather a separate question from e.g. why a CME that hit us well didn't produce significant geomagnetic activity, or conversely why a CME that didn't hit us well did end up producing such activity; these latter questions would certainly often be partially explained by the semiannual variation you bring up, but the first one is more about what might have happened along the way or why we got the initial observations wrong. At least that's how I'm understanding the question.

Personally I don't have a good explanation. It could be that we exaggerated the initial speed through associating it too closely with the more energetic part of the CME that seems to have had a different direction, as it was quite asymmetric; i.e. that it was more of a glancing blow than anticipated at first. Except in very clear cases it's obviously still very hard to reliably model and predict CME impacts.

14 hours ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Thank you for the advice to learn the language, but explaining events requires scientific rigor, not speculation, and that is the idea of studying in a group to find the answer, not assuming by axiom.

I believe you have missed my point, or are gaslighting. In order to make my points as clear as possible to you, I have written plenty, have devoted a bit more time to acknowledging some issues I'm seeing here, and am giving you many opportunities to comprehend the issues for yourself.

This isn't a personal attack - it is just fact that your commentary is being mistranslated to an extent, and this language barrier is making it difficult to communicate back-and-forth in a dialogue. Moreover, I feel you should re-review the rules written here and hopefully acknowledge where it doesn't make sense to you, as you're breaking these specific ones repeatedly(in my opinion; feel free to review prior posts):

• When you made the last post in a topic and you want to post again in the same topic then edit your last post instead of creating a new one.(In other words, please don't spam/flood.)
• Stay on-topic and make sure you post your topics in the right forum.(Stay appropriate to the conversation/thread.)
• Don't post with the only intention to raise your post count. Only post when you have something to add to the topic. Useless answers will be removed without prior notice.(Post original, meaningful content.)

While I see you are indeed curious, it is still imperative that you work on your posting skills, pertaining to those rules. I believe you are not breaking them maliciously, which is why I've chosen this approach to the matter, with respect to your individuality, and to the fact that other non-native English speakers/readers in this community are more considerate of their own limitations in these discussions than you have been, most having put in a great deal of effort to break down their language barriers and participate more tactfully.

I would like for you to understand, or at least consider the cumulative negative effect this language barrier imposes on our ability to work together. I have read the exchanges between yourself and others for several days now, and cannot help but feel this tragedy unfolding slowly; that you aren't willing to advance your English skills to a working level, despite this community's frequent, polite suggestions to do so, nor do you even acknowledge the issues it creates.

We cannot truly study alongside you because the translation is often not sufficiently clear, and it is resulting in habitual, frequently bothersome posting. You do not necessarily need much study to catch auto-translate errors on your own, so I implore you to take the time and learn what you can - it will be extremely beneficial for group-work in an English-speaking community, such as this one.

I'm saying all of this publicly for the benefit of others that would like to participate here, hopefully so they think twice about relying on auto-translate near-exclusively. It just isn't good enough, I'm sorry. The subject matter is rather advanced, and often necessitates an advanced grasp of, at the very least, your own language + a bit of English, enough to know the common translation challenges between them.

If one day, you can return to this post and read/understand it fluently, you will have effectively mastered English beyond most Americans. Facts.

Edited May 13, 20232 yr by Christopher S.
am giving* - adherence to tense is not too strict in casual conversation, so this error slipped through

Sustained southward BZ. Fingers crossed for all aurora photographers.

18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

BZ sostenida hacia el sur. Crucemos los dedos por todos los fotógrafos de auroras.

there was an impact and the bz is sustained to the south, wow

24 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Impact impact process: 

Noting the source type is a center disk CH.

10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Observando que el tipo de fuente es un disco central CH .

there is no coronal hole, so it was a cme that hit unexpectedly,

13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Noting the source type is a center disk CH.

a CH signature looks different. (cir) 

7 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

there is no coronal hole, so it was a cme that hit unexpectedly,

positive polarity : https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/mod7.html  emits protons.

It's not great, but it's something. We are in a part of the CH CIR currently. I'm not sure if the CH HSS has entered yet.

wtf why is dscovr giving data of 0.27 times of bt?

now 2 bt in ace, it seems something strange after all there was an unexpected cme hit, change so fast?

Edited May 13, 20232 yr by Isatsuki San

28 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

after all there was an unexpected cme hit

Why do you keep repeating that? Seems to me that what the others suggest above, i.e. that we were hit by a CIR (technically a SIR, at least if I understand it right), is much more plausible.

Then again, I'm not an expert by any means, but I would probably not insist that this was a CME when it lacks many of the characteristic signatures of one.

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

¿Por qué sigues repitiendo eso? Me parece que lo que los otros sugieren arriba, es decir, que fuimos golpeados por un CIR (técnicamente un SIR , al menos si lo entiendo bien), es mucho más plausible.

Por otra parte, no soy un experto de ninguna manera, pero probablemente no insistiría en que se trata de un CME cuando carece de muchas de las firmas características de uno.

Well, I have two answers: one, there were so many cme fired by the same sunspot that one could pass freely, in addition to the fact that at the time this arrived, there were no living coronal cir or holes, everything was dead.

Not all CHs are mapped. Weak CHs, CHs not rotated into view that are hidden, and CHs rotated out of view that are hidden won't be mapped. They aren't as visible as how sunspots are seen in SDO's HMI imagery.

With the CH image I posted above, the CIR arrival fits. The peak HSS strength may still be to be determined, if it can even go above 450km/s. I'm not sure if it could have peaked already.

Given there is no clear sign of a CME arrival as well.

Bgins : 2023 -05 -13 

This event does not impact us, the event
developing, it is a coronal hole, for the moment.

 

There is the possibility , of a very slight , impact , according to the Enlil , for the day 2013-05-15 , coupled with a solar wind current .

Edited May 14, 20232 yr by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

On 5/10/2023 at 5:40 PM, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

How is the protection of the magnetic field towards the poles? How is the weak magnetic field in the South Atlantic anomaly explained?

The magnetic field has something called hysteresis (Hysteresis - Wikipedia) , which means there are small fluctuations, changes, and asymmetry. 

 

There is often higher intensity of solar wind near the poles, and higher magnetic field strength. The solar wind is funneled into the cusps, but is scattered by the magnetic field, and reflected from ice.

 

Science on the Cusp: Sounding Rockets Head North | NASA

"The polar cusps are essentially two holes in our magnetosphere. Here, Earth’s magnetic field lines funnel the solar wind downwards, concentrating its energy before injecting it into Earth’s atmosphere, where it mixes and collides with particles of Earthly origin."

 

 

I want us all to be on the same page. Let us breath deeply, spend the day appreciating our mothers, and return to more organized observations of data.

Edited May 14, 20232 yr by Christopher S.

1 hour ago, Christopher S. said:

I want us all to be on the same page. Let us breath deeply, spend the day appreciating our mothers, and return to more organized observations of data.

I don't really understand what you mean, and I'm a native English speaker/writer. 

 

I gather you want some forum unity; in a method you find productive. What is it about the thread/conversation which is bothering you? What method of organization would be acceptable to you? 

 

The term organized was in bold, but not explained, or at least what more organized would mean. The emphasis is clear, but the method and vision is not. 

Edited May 15, 20232 yr by Archmonoth

1 hour ago, Archmonoth said:

I don't really understand what you mean, and I'm a native English speaker/writer. 

 

I gather you want some forum unity; in a method you find productive. What is it about the thread/conversation which is bothering you? What method of organization would be acceptable to you? 

 

The term organized was in bold, but not explained, or at least what more organized would mean. The emphasis is clear, but the method and vision is not. 

Perhaps we should consult my edit history for what I truly feel about what you're bringing to this conversation.

By all means, give us a representation of Archomonoth's idea of organized, lest it be a troll effort from a frequent troll.

Edited May 15, 20232 yr by Christopher S.

4 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Perhaps we should consult my edit history for what I truly feel about what you're bringing to this conversation.

By all means, give us a representation of Archomonoth's idea of organized, lest it be a troll effort from a frequent troll.

No troll intended. I don't want to derail or get off topic, but I'll do my best to answer your request. 

First off, I see a verbose post by you about a language barrier. I see a new person to the forum who had some questions. I mentioned the polar cusps as something interesting which might provide some expansion to the understanding of the complexity of space weather, and the magnetic field, since everybody might not "be on the same page". (slang, figurative expression, and metaphor are more difficult for people with language barriers.) 

 

I don't have an idea of what a better/more/different organization of the thread would be, nor do I desire such a thing. 

I was asking for clarification of what more organized would be, since you suggested it. Didn't mean to come across as harsh or trolling, but I empathize with non-native English speaker trying to parse your post. 

 

Hope this answers your request, and we can get back to the thread topic. 

Edited May 15, 20232 yr by Archmonoth

 

I found a link on the SWL about page indicating they want help improving or completing translations for many languages, especially, if spoken in the Southern Hemisphere or lower latitudes it seems.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/about.html

”Would you like to see SpaceWeatherLive in your own language? Did you find a translation error, or want to improve existing translations? Join the translation team and get started to make space weather accessible in your language. 
 Join the SpaceWeatherLive translation team!”

Spanish translation:

“¿Le gustaría ver SpaceWeatherLive en su propio idioma? ¿Encontró un error de traducción o desea mejorar las traducciones existentes? Únase al equipo de traducción y comience a hacer accesible el clima espacial en su idioma. ¡Únase al equipo de traducción de SpaceWeatherLive”

Looks like Spanish translations are only 64% complete & need ~10k words to be complete to hopefully clear up more common miscommunications & increase participation.

https://translate.spaceweatherlive.com

Wish I knew any other language other than English to be of help translating because where I live half the population only 40 miles from NASA actually speaks primarily Spanish despite the US being an “English-speaking” country.

Spanish is also the fourth most spoken language in the world with twice as many speakers as French, Russian or Portuguese which have more complete translations on this site despite Argentina and Chile being one of the few countries within the aurora belt in the Southern Hemisphere.

If more aurora sightings are more likely to be visible in the Southern Hemisphere due to earths tilt approaching solstice, it seems like improving translations for languages spoken there to participate would benefit global space weather observations & communications as a whole.

I appreciate the work this site has taken over the years to translate spaceweather to as many languages as it has and look forward to helping expand the endeavor in any way possible seeing the value it brings.

 

Edited May 15, 20232 yr by Bry

On 5/15/2023 at 5:21 AM, Archmonoth said:

I see a new person to the forum who had some questions.

The problem was more that for a while, said person was, to put it mildly, at least in my opinion, outright spamming. One thing is being new and being curious, but another is making both a lot of posts where you try to simultaneously make a lot of claims about current space weather that simply aren't true with references to models you still don't understand. That quickly ends up as frustrating as the people posting about pixie dust and flying unicorns. And furthermore they were also posting multiple images of every minor C-flare and so on; in this or another thread there was a post where I had to point out that they'd just posted the exact same image 5 times in a single post.

There was also the additional problem of poor English, and while better Spanish content on the site in general would be great to make information more accessible to speakers of Spanish, I don't really think that was the core issue with regards to language here at all. Most people who are primarily out to learn and/or provide useful information tend to at least be a bit more forthcoming and make a bit of effort to overcome language barriers, but in this case when some clarification was asked for or provided, it was often just followed up with either more spam or another cryptic post, generally with little acknowledgement of what was posted previously. Occasionally they did acknowledge something, but overall it made it difficult to have any meaningful form of dialog. Sometimes when I provided them with some information they'd just send me another link to some site with data I was already in the process of attempting to clarify for them to the best of my own ability.

I certainly don't believe Christopher was the only one to be a bit frustrated with that behavior, and several others did also express it to some extent. I'm not even going to pretend that I'm some paragon of virtue myself in that regard, but I definitely do agree with the notion of trying to keep things on-topic, somewhat organized, and not spamming, and I wouldn't mind anyone letting me know if they felt what I was writing was unprincipled in that regard (although I'd ultimately be the arbiter of whether or not I agreed myself, but of course the mods and admins would have the final say in any case). In the end, in this case I wouldn't really have minded unless it got a lot worse, but this is just to say that I get where the frustration is coming from.

And yes, I'm aware that I'm adding to a discussion that's very decidedly off-topic at this point; luckily there's not a lot of geomagnetic activity at the moment. Perhaps it would be better to have a separate thread for this type of meta-discussion about what is desirable to see in forum content, but I'll leave this here for now, and I'll probably leave it at this even if someone wants to continue this here, I just wanted to share my own thoughts on the matter, as it was getting a bit one-sided.

Now it looks like they've either deleted their profile themselves or possibly that it was deleted by mods/admins, which in either case to me reinforces that there was something decidedly odd about their behavior.

8 hours ago, Philalethes said:

The problem was more that for a while, said person was, to put it mildly, at least in my opinion, outright spamming. One thing is being new and being curious, but another is making both a lot of posts where you try to simultaneously make a lot of claims about current space weather that simply aren't true with references to models you still don't understand. That quickly ends up as frustrating as the people posting about pixie dust and flying unicorns. And furthermore they were also posting multiple images of every minor C-flare and so on; in this or another thread there was a post where I had to point out that they'd just posted the exact same image 5 times in a single post.

There was also the additional problem of poor English, and while better Spanish content on the site in general would be great to make information more accessible to speakers of Spanish, I don't really think that was the core issue with regards to language here at all. Most people who are primarily out to learn and/or provide useful information tend to at least be a bit more forthcoming and make a bit of effort to overcome language barriers, but in this case when some clarification was asked for or provided, it was often just followed up with either more spam or another cryptic post, generally with little acknowledgement of what was posted previously. Occasionally they did acknowledge something, but overall it made it difficult to have any meaningful form of dialog. Sometimes when I provided them with some information they'd just send me another link to some site with data I was already in the process of attempting to clarify for them to the best of my own ability.

I certainly don't believe Christopher was the only one to be a bit frustrated with that behavior, and several others did also express it to some extent. I'm not even going to pretend that I'm some paragon of virtue myself in that regard, but I definitely do agree with the notion of trying to keep things on-topic, somewhat organized, and not spamming, and I wouldn't mind anyone letting me know if they felt what I was writing was unprincipled in that regard (although I'd ultimately be the arbiter of whether or not I agreed myself, but of course the mods and admins would have the final say in any case). In the end, in this case I wouldn't really have minded unless it got a lot worse, but this is just to say that I get where the frustration is coming from.

And yes, I'm aware that I'm adding to a discussion that's very decidedly off-topic at this point; luckily there's not a lot of geomagnetic activity at the moment. Perhaps it would be better to have a separate thread for this type of meta-discussion about what is desirable to see in forum content, but I'll leave this here for now, and I'll probably leave it at this even if someone wants to continue this here, I just wanted to share my own thoughts on the matter, as it was getting a bit one-sided.

Now it looks like they've either deleted their profile themselves or possibly that it was deleted by mods/admins, which in either case to me reinforces that there was something decidedly odd about their behavior.

Some additional information from the moderator’s perspective:

The person in question was warned to keep their posting substantial and relevant, as per the rules of these forums. Upon receiving this request they asked to have their account deleted. In accordance with EU law all their personal data was deleted. 

Not a choice I personally understand, but theirs to make. 

Furthermore, let’s consider this subject in the past. I don’t think further discussion of it will prove productive. 

Edited May 16, 20232 yr by Sam Warfel

12 bt and 9 from bz to south it seems that there was an impact?

32 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

12 bt and 9 from bz to south it seems that there was an impact?

My best guess would be the SIR of the small CH that was facing us a couple of days ago.

Just now, Philalethes said:

My best guess would be the SIR of the small CH that was facing us a couple of days ago.

This time I agree with you that it could be that, I was seeing before that protons had arrived at a density of 20, and then it caused the magnetic field to be at 12 bt and 9 bz south, so yes it could be the SIR