Sunspot region 3283 (M1.7 solar flare)

[MinYoongi]

That region just fired off a small M-Class flare.

Looking at SUVI it looks very eruptive! Any Opinions? @mozy @Sam Warfel @Jesterface23

Oh, it could be 3281 instead of the Region i named this topic after. Please correct this if it turns out this way @Vancanneyt Sander :x Sorry!

[Philalethes]

I think it was 3283; I was about to make this thread myself.

I'd agree that it looks quite eruptive indeed, both from the the flux and from looking at SUVI. Great position for an Earth-directed CME too, will be interesting to watch what pops up on LASCO.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

I think it was 3283; I was about to make this thread myself.

I'd agree that it looks quite eruptive indeed, both from the the flux and from looking at SUVI. Great position for an Earth-directed CME too, will be interesting to watch what pops up on LASCO.

People are already claiming its "huge" and will do a "massive geomagnetic storm" which is kinda startling me a bit.. i'd like opinions

[Marcel de Bont]

A very nice M1.7 solar flare is currently taking place around sunspot region 3283 which is located near the center of the earth-facing solar disk. It is a long duration solar flare and I do expect a coronal mass ejection with a likely earth-directed component from this event based on the most recent SDO imagery available. More information will follow when coronagraph imagery from SOHO becomes available.

[MinYoongi]

hey, i already opened a thread for this eruption. could you merge mine into this? 

[Philalethes]

Probably best to merge the two threads I guess. But yes, this one looks promising for sure, would surprise me if there's nothing Earth-directed.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

Probably best to merge the two threads I guess. But yes, this one looks promising for sure, would surprise me if there's nothing Earth-directed.

i just wonder how people are already saying its gonna be an extreme geomagnetic storm

  @Marcel de Bont this does not give away a hint to the CME speed right?

[Landon Moeller]

I fully expect at least a partial halo, if not full. This is one of the best looks ive ever seen, and filaments tend to produce nice cme's

[Marcel de Bont]

6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

hey, i already opened a thread for this eruption. could you merge mine into this? 

I merged the threads, I did not knew you made one already, I just looked at the titles and did not saw one for sunspot region 3283.

1 minuut geleden, Landon Moeller zei:

I fully expect at least a partial halo, if not full. This is one of the best looks ive ever seen, and filaments tend to produce nice cme's

Agreed, could be at least an asymmetrical full halo. Maybe not a super fast CME but something did release.

[MinYoongi]

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=6178&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1 

Here is a cool EIT/Dimming graph for you guys.

1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Maybe not a super fast CME but something did release.

Did it look slow to you? to me it looked rather fast/ not super fast

 @Marcel de Bont @Vancanneyt Sander @Philalethes Bythos

[NEAurora]

Not speaking from a place of expertise, but comparing this to other Earth directed flares I can remember seeing, this one looks pretty darn good, especially for M1. I’m stoked to see what lasco looks like.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

Not speaking from a place of expertise, but comparing this to other Earth directed flares I can remember seeing, this one looks pretty darn good, especially for M1. I’m stoked to see what lasco looks like.

i agree with you  

I just wish people would stop dooming on SM

[Drax Spacex]

I expect a full halo out of this one.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Drax Spacex said:

I expect a full halo out of this one.

and what else? Speedwise etc.

btw i asked this earlier but i think it got repressed by all the other stuff (understandable)

The type2 emission is 580kms, is this in any way related to the CME's speed and could tell us how fast it could be?

 

 

 

 

[NEAurora]

38 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i agree with you  

I just wish people would stop dooming on SM

If not for dooming, what would social media be good for? 🧐

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, NEAurora said:

If not for dooming, what would social media be good for? 🧐

Haha, youre right.. its just shitty for people like me who tend to get anxious. (even though its irrational)

[Jesterface23]

Yay Fridays CMEs. A wonderful looking shock across the solar disk and full halo.

I believe 2 CMEs looked to have launched within a few minutes, so it's interesting.

I'm thinking this is may bring a moderate event, Kp7 likely and Kp8 possible. I will go with a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/04/23 7:10Z (37 hour travel time) with a chance of error +-7.5 hours. 

[MinYoongi]

11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Yay Fridays CMEs. A wonderful looking shock across the solar disk and full halo.

I believe 2 CMEs looked to have launched within a few minutes, so it's interesting.

I'm thinking this is may bring a moderate event, Kp7 likely and Kp8 possible. I will go with a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/04/23 7:10Z (37 hour travel time) with a chance of error +-7.5 hours. 

Oh , 2? Interesting. i think its an uneven filament release, this could explain the 2 cmes.

[Jesterface23]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Oh , 2? Interesting. i think its an uneven filament release, this could explain the 2 cmes.

The speeds look close to each other. The first seemed to be the slower and slightly southwestward directed. The second is the faster and very slightly southeastward directed.

[Genie]

novice here.

so we have an uneven filament release>3283 M1.7>2 cmes>Kp7/8>earlier cme:slower and SW bound>2nd cme faster and SE bound> L1 of 2023/04/23 7:10Z (37 hour travel time) with a chance of error +-7.5 hours. 

will cme #2 catch up and merge with cme @1?

and relevance of nearby coronal hole 96?

any carrintgon-like signatures?

[Philalethes]

42 minutes ago, Genie said:

so we have an uneven filament release>3283 M1.7>2 cmes>Kp7/8>earlier cme:slower and SW bound>2nd cme faster and SE bound> L1 of 2023/04/23 7:10Z (37 hour travel time) with a chance of error +-7.5 hours. 

will cme #2 catch up and merge with cme @1?

I would think there'd definitely be a lot of overlap there; I'd even go so far as saying that there's more of a gradient in speed between the two different areas of the filament that erupted, and that like MinYoongi mentions above it looks more like a single uneven eruption. Maybe that's not a good way to conceptualize it, but that's what it seems like to me.

58 minutes ago, Genie said:

and relevance of nearby coronal hole 96?

I'm not sure what catalog you're using for that numbering, but I assume you're referring to the large one roughly south of the eruption. Given how Solar wind is assumed to be neutral in terms of charge, with only internal voltage fluctuations, it can in some respects be treated like regular wind, at least from what I've read and understood. The fast Solar wind from CHs also tends to be less dense, so I think in some ways you can apply Bernoulli's principle and say that fast Solar wind would tend to cause a lower pressure in its path, which is why any eruptions following it would tend to get sped up. If going by this, then the effect of a CH could vary greatly in this respect, since a larger Earth-directed component of the fast Solar wind would help more ejecta hit us, while a larger component directed away from us would pull more ejecta away from us. Maybe that's an oversimplification, and maybe there are more variables that change the picture completely, if anyone knows more about it they should certainly feel free to weigh in.

1 hour ago, Genie said:

any carrintgon-like signatures?

I fail to see how that would be even remotely possible, given that the Carrington event was estimated to have a peak flux ~260 times that of this relatively meager M1.7; it also had an estimated average speed of ~2350 km/s, which would mean a significantly faster speed initially, compared with the above estimated initial speeds of ~1300-1600 km/s. Not really comparable if you ask me.

[Hagen72]

In WSA Model you should see well that

1st : the 2nd Wave Run up to the 1st

2nd: the doublewave swept all particle Waste in Front of CME 

 

[Marcel de Bont]

I removed the post that was promoting an unproven theory, the user that made this post has been informed of the rules. Everybody keep in mind we do not allow unproven theories anywhere but this topic: 

Thanks!