Jesterface23 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 There looks to have been an unexpected CME arrival, likely from a filament eruption late on the 15th UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 hello, spaceweather live, I talk about it on your facebook page https://www.facebook.com/SpaceWeatherLive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 Ah, in the time of thinking to submit or not, I didn't notice the SWL posts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 and it seems that the bz went south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 58 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There looks to have been an unexpected CME arrival, likely from a filament eruption late on the 15th UTC. If this is truly the late April 15th CME, this is quite early and a huge bust of forecast models. NASA forecasted the 20th, SWPC the 22nd. This is a miss by 2-4 days. Could the forecast speed have truly been so off? As it stands, this is a travel time of 62 hours. Guess we will have to see if there is any CME looming out in space still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 (edited) It seems that the cm did increase the solar wind to 600 kilometers per second For a few moments? Edited April 18 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 5 hours ago, Landon Moeller said: If this is truly the late April 15th CME, this is quite early and a huge bust of forecast models. NASA forecasted the 20th, SWPC the 22nd. This is a miss by 2-4 days. Could the forecast speed have truly been so off? As it stands, this is a travel time of 62 hours. Guess we will have to see if there is any CME looming out in space still The velocities are a fit. Too bad we didn't have SA's view. Now at the time I got off work it looks like the CME has already passed and CH HSS has resumed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: The velocities are a fit. Too bad we didn't have SA's view. Now at the time I got off work it looks like the CME has already passed and CH HSS has resumed. NOAA agrees that the 15th CME did not arrive yet, and they are forecasting midday 20th now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 6 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: NOAA agrees that the 15th CME did not arrive yet, and they are forecasting midday 20th now The arrivals are preliminary and forecast are set in stone until everything runs its course. With the CH HSS stronger than forecasted though, any possible future CME arrival is in question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The arrivals are preliminary and forecast are set in stone until everything runs its course. With the CH HSS stronger than forecasted though, any possible future CME arrival is in question Good point. Definitely a strong HSS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I'm a bit surprised we didn't hit G1 at around 2023-04-19 12:00 ... the Bz was sustained negative (-7 average) for the 4 hours prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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