April 18th CME Arrival

[Jesterface23]

There looks to have been an unexpected CME arrival, likely from a filament eruption late on the 15th UTC.

[Isatsuki San]

hello, spaceweather live, I talk about it on your facebook page 

https://www.facebook.com/SpaceWeatherLive

 

[Jesterface23]

Ah, in the time of thinking to submit or not, I didn't notice the SWL posts lol.

[Isatsuki San]

and it seems that the bz went south

[Landon Moeller]

58 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There looks to have been an unexpected CME arrival, likely from a filament eruption late on the 15th UTC.

If this is truly the late April 15th CME, this is quite early and a huge bust of forecast models. NASA forecasted the 20th, SWPC the 22nd. This is a miss by 2-4 days. Could the forecast speed have truly been so off? As it stands, this is a travel time of 62 hours. Guess we will have to see if there is any CME looming out in space still

[Isatsuki San]

It seems that the cm did increase the solar wind to 600 kilometers per second For a few moments?

Edited April 18, 2023 by Isatsuki San

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

If this is truly the late April 15th CME, this is quite early and a huge bust of forecast models. NASA forecasted the 20th, SWPC the 22nd. This is a miss by 2-4 days. Could the forecast speed have truly been so off? As it stands, this is a travel time of 62 hours. Guess we will have to see if there is any CME looming out in space still

The velocities are a fit. Too bad we didn't have SA's view.

Now at the time I got off work it looks like the CME has already passed and CH HSS has resumed.

[Landon Moeller]

3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The velocities are a fit. Too bad we didn't have SA's view.

Now at the time I got off work it looks like the CME has already passed and CH HSS has resumed.

NOAA agrees that the 15th CME did not arrive yet, and they are forecasting midday 20th now 

[Jesterface23]

6 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

NOAA agrees that the 15th CME did not arrive yet, and they are forecasting midday 20th now 

The arrivals are preliminary and forecast are set in stone until everything runs its course. With the CH HSS stronger than forecasted though, any possible future CME arrival is in question

[Landon Moeller]

13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The arrivals are preliminary and forecast are set in stone until everything runs its course. With the CH HSS stronger than forecasted though, any possible future CME arrival is in question

Good point. Definitely a strong HSS!

[Drax Spacex]

I'm a bit surprised we didn't hit G1 at around 2023-04-19 12:00 ... the Bz was sustained negative (-7 average) for the 4 hours prior.