A Day Without Sunspots Watch

[Drax Spacex]

The spaceweatherlive archive records the last day without sunspots was 2022-Jun-08.  The current sunspot number is 23, from 2 active regions with 3 sunspots.  What is the likelihood that we might have another sunspotless day in the next few days - which would be unusual so close to solar maximum.  It may depend on what's coming around the east limb  - whether the bright regions contain sunspots or just flux.  

[Marcel de Bont]

There is a group rapidly growing center disk. You wont get your spotless Sun just yet.

[Drax Spacex]

You're right.  That region in the south emerged quickly right along the central meridian.   Backward "C" shape with lots of small string-of-pearls sunspots.  Could be a complex region.  Looks to be just south of what was AR3267, but might be close enough to be considered the same region.

[Philalethes]

7 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

The spaceweatherlive archive records the last day without sunspots was 2022-Jun-08.  The current sunspot number is 23, from 2 active regions with 3 sunspots.  What is the likelihood that we might have another sunspotless day in the next few days - which would be unusual so close to solar maximum.  It may depend on what's coming around the east limb  - whether the bright regions contain sunspots or just flux.  

Completely spotless near maximum does indeed sound relatively unlikely, but looking briefly at the daily sunspot data from SILSO it does happen; for example, on 17/07/2014 there was recorded a completely spotless day, just a few months after maximum, whereas a couple of weeks earlier the sunspot number was hovering around 200, and a couple of weeks later around 150. Can't find any other example by just scrolling through it a bit, so definitely not a common occurrence, and that single instance was probably helped by the weakness of SC24.

Searching through the years from ~1850 (from which there are no gaps in the daily numbers) with a program I can in fact just find a single other instance where there was a spotless day within 6 months of the smoothed max, which was 25/09/1883, near the max of SC12; that was only ~3 months before max, and interestingly the SN reached 260 just 2.5 weeks after it was 0. If you allow a wider range, e.g. 1 year, then there are some days near the SC14 and SC15 maxima that qualify, but nothing since then other than the day in 2014.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Drax Spacex]

Great review of the data, and rare indeed.  A day without sunspots near solar maximum seems to require a lopsided sun where the active regions are confined to one longitudinal hemisphere.

[Drax Spacex]

bump

Today AR=3, SN=34

Any active regions coming around the east limb?

Stereo A is no longer of any help to preview what's coming since it's now lagging behind Earth's view of the east limb  (positive Y Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinate).  https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml

Edited October 25, 2023 by Drax Spacex
where

[Newbie]

I wondered if this would happen too.

Well the story goes 51 and 52 were supposedly returning anytime soon. There have been a few low C grade flares right on the East limb E89 and E88 according to SolarSoft.

Background flux hasn’t increased much at all to this point. 
Fingers crossed 🤞 

This just might save us. 

AR 3471 has reformed, growing more spots.

Also there appears to be a dark core just past the E limb and another area growing quickly to the North and further to the RHS.

N.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Newbie
Added pic

[hamateur 1953]

Yep. We are only up a few points in sfi today although personally I find the brightness along the Northern Hemisphere encouraging.  Southern to a somewhat lesser extent.  Honestly, id expected to see 3451 or 3452 by now.  I think Tamitha Skov thought they should have arrived by mid-week but I’d have to rewatch her latest update.  Edit. Probably premature but at time of edit I am seeing increasing flux which can only be from East limb.  Whew. Haha. Close one. 

Edited October 25, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[hamateur 1953]

All that is missing on the flux line is the steady tone indicating that our patient seems to have expired for now. 
I ve gotten the zap before. No big deal. It probably will take a few more  kilowatts to kick this guy back into gear again.  We need volunteers for the paddles!  😝

Edited October 25, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Drax Spacex]

SN=13, flirting with no suspots again.  The single AR3486 on the solar disk  is soon to rotate out of view.  But looks like the old AR3474 (new AR3489) is rotating into view in the southern hemisphere with sunspots that will be counted tomorrow.  Close but no cigar!

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Drax Spacex
AR3489

[tniickck]

also there are 2 big regions coming in 3-4 days, excluding old 3474,which is now on earthsidw

42 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

SN=13, flirting with no suspots again.  The single AR3486 on the solar disk  is soon to rotate out of view.  But looks like the old AR3474 is rotating into view in the southern hemisphere with sunspots that will be counted tomorrow.  Close but no cigar!

 

 

[3gMike]

6 hours ago, tniickck said:

also there are 2 big regions coming in 3-4 days, excluding old 3474,which is now on earthsidw

 

I believe that the two regions approaching the limb are old AR3472 at N21/353 and AR3474 at S18/345. Currently limb longitude is 1.9

[LunarLights58]

So the disk was almost spotless but another region showed up just in time.

[Newbie]

7 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

So the disk was almost spotless but another region showed up just in time.

Yes it did, it turned into view two days ago see incoming regions thread. It has since been numbered AR 13489.

Not overly active but has been flaring at low C level 😊

N

[LunarLights58]

Still kinda sucks for aurora watchers that the Sun has been at rather low activity for the time being, especially with the solar cycle being not far from maximum.

[hamateur 1953]

14 hours ago, LunarLights58 said:

Still kinda sucks for aurora watchers that the Sun has been at rather low activity for the time being, especially with the solar cycle being not far from maximum.

Yes, as a few others have noted our only entertainment has been from filament eruptions of late.  Stick around, this isn’t a repeat of cycle 24, at least I expect a lot more entertainment to come in the next few years. 

[mozy]

14 hours ago, LunarLights58 said:

Still kinda sucks for aurora watchers that the Sun has been at rather low activity for the time being, especially with the solar cycle being not far from maximum.

It's been a relief for me, today was the first time I've seen the sun since late October, can't believe It's been overcast for this long. I wouldn't want crazy activity when It's all cloudy here for a whole month 😎

But I do want it to pick up soon, It's getting rather boring.