Is this gigantic coronal hole pose a threat ?

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

It's juts gigantic, is that normal ? Are we facing Bad news ? It's look so much Big 

[Jesterface23]

There's a threat of aurora. There isn't anything bad to them, plus this one is facing more southward. I think it was back in 2015 or 2016 where a similar sized CH was in center disk and we got a G3 storm out of it. Then the next solar rotation a G3 watch was issued and I think we only got a G2 storm from it.

[Hagen72]

She's laughing...

[Sieffre Involution]

I still think these huge Coronal holes might have some sort of rare tie in with the 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙪𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝟕𝟕𝟒-𝟕𝟕𝟓 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙗𝙤𝙣-𝟏𝟒 𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙨, 𝙤𝙧 "𝙈𝙞𝙮𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩(𝙨)". After all Coronal holes are ..."open, unipolar magnetic fields. This open, magnetic field line structure allows the solar wind to escape more readily into space, resulting in streams of relatively fast solar wind and is often referred to as a high speed stream in the context of analysis of structures in interplanetary space."...  
So I purpose if we are unlucky and have a large enough Coronal hole that is sending faster solar wind "clearing" out, space between sun and earth, which on its own can result in quote ..."Generally, coronal holes located at or near the solar equator are most likely to result in any CIR passage and/or higher solar wind speeds at Earth. Strong CIRs and the faster CH HSS can impact Earth’s magnetosphere enough to cause periods of geomagnetic storming to the G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) levels; although rarer cases of stronger storming may also occur. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. The larger and more expansive coronal holes can often be a source for high solar wind speeds that buffet Earth for many days."...  

~Thus, IF we were hit with this effect, PLUS being unlucky with a strong Solar Flare/CME- not only could that result be stronger, but would arrive at earth Quicker. Just like we have seen in past storms (were a prior storm "clears out" debris and following storm arrives at Earth quicker) This is just a proposal/idea, and I am sure there is way more to it, but I don't think the view that there is no risk from the coronal holes, is valid- because if that were the case I doubt we would track them in as much detail, nor have dedicated space to various space weather warning sites for them.  

Again If my concern is correct, it would suck, but be a extremely rare swiss cheese dice roll for Earth. 

Above "..." footnote References https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes 

 

[Tormentius]

1 hour ago, Sieffre Involution said:

I still think these huge Coronal holes might have some sort of rare tie in with the 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙪𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝟕𝟕𝟒-𝟕𝟕𝟓 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙗𝙤𝙣-𝟏𝟒 𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙨, 𝙤𝙧 "𝙈𝙞𝙮𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩(𝙨)". After all Coronal holes are ..."open, unipolar magnetic fields. This open, magnetic field line structure allows the solar wind to escape more readily into space, resulting in streams of relatively fast solar wind and is often referred to as a high speed stream in the context of analysis of structures in interplanetary space."...  
So I purpose if we are unlucky and have a large enough Coronal hole that is sending faster solar wind "clearing" out, space between sun and earth, which on its own can result in quote ..."Generally, coronal holes located at or near the solar equator are most likely to result in any CIR passage and/or higher solar wind speeds at Earth. Strong CIRs and the faster CH HSS can impact Earth’s magnetosphere enough to cause periods of geomagnetic storming to the G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) levels; although rarer cases of stronger storming may also occur. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. The larger and more expansive coronal holes can often be a source for high solar wind speeds that buffet Earth for many days."...  

~Thus, IF we were hit with this effect, PLUS being unlucky with a strong Solar Flare/CME- not only could that result be stronger, but would arrive at earth Quicker. Just like we have seen in past storms (were a prior storm "clears out" debris and following storm arrives at Earth quicker) This is just a proposal/idea, and I am sure there is way more to it, but I don't think the view that there is no risk from the coronal holes, is valid- because if that were the case I doubt we would track them in as much detail, nor have dedicated space to various space weather warning sites for them.  

Again If my concern is correct, it would suck, but be a extremely rare swiss cheese dice roll for Earth. 

Above "..." footnote References https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes 

 

Not sure I agree with that idea completely. Granted we know very little about Miyake Events but based on how we’ve see. Coronal holes and CMEs interact, I doubt it would work like that.

Yes Coronal Holes send solar wind but they don’t tend to interact well with CMEs. Most of the time, a CME that interacts with a Coronal Hole is either blown away completely or slowed down dramatically, not sped up.

Every single instance of a CME having space cleared for them that we’ve observed has been because of a prior CME from the same AR not a Coronal Hole.

And its true, we do monitor Coronal Holes because they can be somewhat disruptive to GPS or navigation just like weak CMEs can be. And yes, on rare occasions they can cause G3 storms but we haven’t seen any evidence to suggest they have caused anything significant, they just cause too much of a gradual buildup instead of the sudden increase of a CME to cause any major issues.

So while I won’t completely dismiss your premise because we know so little about Miyake Events. Some even believe that they have nothing to do with the Sun and could be related to some other stellar events.

But I would just like to point out that Coronal Holes are only monitored because they can cause some complications in GPS and maybe some minor power fluctuations at their peak but generally are much less potent than CMEs and are not viewed with the same level of threat by heliophysicists who examine them

[Archmonoth]

10 hours ago, Sieffre Involution said:

Again If my concern is correct, it would suck, but be a extremely rare swiss cheese dice roll for Earth. 

 

This particular Coronal hole doesn't appear to be the speculated extremely rare event you are thinking about. 

[VortexSolar Stephane]

Hello.

This coronal hole occurs during the Sun's power-up phase, which puzzles me because these coronal holes are more commonly observed during the phases of decreased activity. There may be a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm associated with the solar wind speeds that will arrive in our planet's magnetic environment in the middle of the week.

[Philalethes]

17 hours ago, Sieffre Involution said:

I still think these huge Coronal holes might have some sort of rare tie in with the 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙪𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝟕𝟕𝟒-𝟕𝟕𝟓 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙗𝙤𝙣-𝟏𝟒 𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙨, 𝙤𝙧 "𝙈𝙞𝙮𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩(𝙨)". After all Coronal holes are ..."open, unipolar magnetic fields. This open, magnetic field line structure allows the solar wind to escape more readily into space, resulting in streams of relatively fast solar wind and is often referred to as a high speed stream in the context of analysis of structures in interplanetary space."...  
So I purpose if we are unlucky and have a large enough Coronal hole that is sending faster solar wind "clearing" out, space between sun and earth, which on its own can result in quote ..."Generally, coronal holes located at or near the solar equator are most likely to result in any CIR passage and/or higher solar wind speeds at Earth. Strong CIRs and the faster CH HSS can impact Earth’s magnetosphere enough to cause periods of geomagnetic storming to the G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) levels; although rarer cases of stronger storming may also occur. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. The larger and more expansive coronal holes can often be a source for high solar wind speeds that buffet Earth for many days."...  

~Thus, IF we were hit with this effect, PLUS being unlucky with a strong Solar Flare/CME- not only could that result be stronger, but would arrive at earth Quicker. Just like we have seen in past storms (were a prior storm "clears out" debris and following storm arrives at Earth quicker) This is just a proposal/idea, and I am sure there is way more to it, but I don't think the view that there is no risk from the coronal holes, is valid- because if that were the case I doubt we would track them in as much detail, nor have dedicated space to various space weather warning sites for them.  

Again If my concern is correct, it would suck, but be a extremely rare swiss cheese dice roll for Earth. 

First of all, a CH alone will never lead to anything like the spike associated with the Miyake event and other events of similar scope. You could probably have a CH over the entire surface of Sol for numerous rotations without even making a dent in the activity required. I assume that's not what you're implying anyway, but that much should be clear.

Secondly, yes, it can clear out the path for a CME, but so can other CMEs, so that's not really more of a risk factor than a small-medium Earth-directed CME would be; you'd still need an incredibly energetic event far beyond the scale of anything we've seen in recorded history to match the assumed strength of the Miyake event, regardless of whether the path is clear or not.

Thirdly, the idea that we wouldn't track CHs unless they were somehow inherently risky is obviously not true; we're tracking them because they are highly prominent features that have measurable impact on Solar wind speed, the interplanetary medium, and geomagnetic conditions. We track tiny sunspots and other harmless features just as well as we track large coronal holes.

5 hours ago, VortexSolar Stephane said:

Hello.

This coronal hole occurs during the Sun's power-up phase, which puzzles me because these coronal holes are more commonly observed during the phases of decreased activity. There may be a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm associated with the solar wind speeds that will arrive in our planet's magnetic environment in the middle of the week.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe such holes are often formed after large CMEs are launched and taking a bunch of the corona with them; thus the reason you often see them post-maximum is because that's typically when a lot of the large flares and CMEs occur, if I'm not mistaken. In this case I believe it's a reasonable assumption that this one formed after the recent big CME that was launched on the far side.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe such holes are often formed after large CMEs are launched and taking a bunch of the corona with them; thus the reason you often see them post-maximum is because that's typically when a lot of the large flares and CMEs occur, if I'm not mistaken. In this case I believe it's a reasonable assumption that this one formed after the recent big CME that was launched on the far side.

I'm a bit too tired to attempt to reply to this, but I'll remind you that CHs are simply where there are more "gaps" in a given vicinity than magnetic loops, allowing extremely hot gasses to vent. Electromagnetically speaking these areas are highly-concentrated and do not interact with CMEs in the manner you've described - CHs constitute the "arms" of the Parker Spiral, and these don't vanish or generate from CME activity. There are also CHs at both poles. It is not a 1:1 relationship, where you have clear input and output.

They are more prevalent during Solar Minimum due to decreased sunspot and flare activity. If anything, CMEs introduce electrodynamics that inhibit the function of CHs.

 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Christopher S. said:

I'm a bit too tired to attempt to reply to this, but I'll remind you that CHs are simply where there are more "gaps" in a given vicinity than magnetic loops, allowing extremely hot gasses to vent. Electromagnetically speaking these areas are highly-concentrated and do not interact with CMEs in the manner you've described - CHs constitute the "arms" of the Parker Spiral, and these don't vanish or generate from CME activity. There are also CHs at both poles. It is not a 1:1 relationship, where you have clear input and output.

Perhaps I wasn't that clear about what I meant; when I wrote that they often form after large CMEs, I was not implying the converse, i.e. that they only form that way, and I'm aware that "true" coronal holes, such as the ones at the poles, are indeed not caused by CMEs. So I agree that it's definitely not a 1:1 relationship between the two at all.

What I meant was rather, to be more specific, that CMEs can lead to coronal dimming, and in the case of powerful enough CMEs, the coronal dimming in the immediate area can be so prominent that it's practically indistinguishable from a "true" coronal hole, hence why they're often called "transient" coronal holes. In e.g. this paper we read at the very top of the abstract:

From what I understand they are called "transient" because they're typically short-lived, but in the case of powerful ejections they can last significantly longer.

Maybe I'm still mistaken to think this CH was caused by this, it just seemed reasonable given the above. Such transient CHs are typically only expected to last a couple of days at most, and this one is clearly here a week after the large event on the far side, so that could certainly be an argument against it being caused by that, but perhaps that time estimate doesn't account for very powerful events.

PS:

Looking through some more papers about coronal dimming and transient coronal holes I found this one by Scott (McIntosh), where he shares some similar sentiments to the above paper, and to some other papers I've found on it:

Quote

As a result of the moss evolution, combining our discussion with recent spectroscopic results of an equatorial coronal hole, we suggest that the interchangeable use of the term “transient coronal hole” to describe a coronal dimming is more than just a simple coincidence.

[...]

The result presented below suggests that calling the observed dimming phenomena a “transient coronal hole” is more than just a “throw-away” designation. The magnetic and energetic properties of the plasma perform in exactly same way as a static long-lived coronal – 3 – hole except that is decays considerably faster.

[...]

Further, the observations and discussion presented above suggest that the use of the term “transient coronal hole” to describe a coronal dimming is more than a simple coincidence. For a finite amount of time (from time of CME eruption to the time that the CME tail disconnects from the Sun) the dimming behaves exactly like a coronal hole. This makes the possibility of fast solar wind streams following immediately behind CME associated with the coronal dimming real.

Again there is emphasis on their transience, so as mentioned above that could indicate that this CH was not caused that way, but as also mentioned above I'm not sure if that's just usually true for moderately sized CMEs or whether larger CMEs can cause longer-lasting ones. Perhaps @Scott McIntosh would like to weigh in if he comes across this.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos
typo

[MinYoongi]

No, dont worry.

Coronal Holes of this size are not unprecedented  But often a solar minimum thing  I think Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming is possible