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AR 3258


arjemma

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First: I'm not sure of this AR's number as SWL has it unnumbered but on the SWPC synoptic map it has the number 3258 so that's what I'm calling this post. Any mod or admin can change the topic name.

This AR produced a beautiful CME while it was flaring in the C-class around 16 UTC today. The sun spots look really tiny on the HMI Intensitygram (as of now... or I'm blind haha) but it sure seems to have some activity going on.

f7c84b0ade04ff79058935a35a5f070f.jpg

d54367390eb7ff413d781480d62521e8.jpg

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51 minutes ago, arjemma said:

The sun spots look really tiny on the HMI Intensitygram (as of now... or I'm blind haha) but it sure seems to have some activity going on.

My eyes also report some very tiny spotlings in that location; if we can get more people to confirm that these spots are indeed very small, perhaps we can achieve a five-sigma confirmation. It does definitely look more active than you would suspect based on that.

Also, whenever I see someone post synoptic maps where the chance of X is higher than 1% I get an uncontrollable urge to roll a die:

Screenshot-from-2023-03-20-23-22-10.png

Natural 100 on the first attempt; yikes. I guess we should be bracing for a major X-flare and another SPE any minute now.

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SOHO C3 is put on limited imagery while C2 is updating every 7 minutes. There is an over the southwest limb farside CME, then the CME from region 3258. The CME looks to have a glancing blow, but may not arrive due to the CH.

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1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

My eyes also report some very tiny spotlings in that location; if we can get more people to confirm that these spots are indeed very small, perhaps we can achieve a five-sigma confirmation. It does definitely look more active than you would suspect based on that.

Also, whenever I see someone post synoptic maps where the chance of X is higher than 1% I get an uncontrollable urge to roll a die:

Screenshot-from-2023-03-20-23-22-10.png

Natural 100 on the first attempt; yikes. I guess we should be bracing for a major X-flare and another SPE any minute now.

Very interesting. Forgive me for the stupid question but was the last statement a joke or something else. I was a little confused lol.

*Never mind, I get it now

Edited by Tormentius
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Note that most seem to think that the C class eruption is a filament 

And I’m not sure why the X Flare probability is above 1 percent. All of the regions seem too simplistic and they all have 1 percent chance of X flares. Just wondering how they come to that

Edited by Tormentius
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2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

My eyes also report some very tiny spotlings in that location; if we can get more people to confirm that these spots are indeed very small, perhaps we can achieve a five-sigma confirmation. It does definitely look more active than you would suspect based on that.

Also, whenever I see someone post synoptic maps where the chance of X is higher than 1% I get an uncontrollable urge to roll a die:

Screenshot-from-2023-03-20-23-22-10.png

Natural 100 on the first attempt; yikes. I guess we should be bracing for a major X-flare and another SPE any minute now.

Can you explain the joke? 

And to your post @arjemma yes, very beautiful! I wonder if the CME is earth directed.

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Can you explain the joke? 

Well, since I rolled 100 on a 100-sided die that obviously means everything with a 1% chance or more on the synoptic map will happen. It's like winning the lottery.

1 hour ago, Tormentius said:

And I’m not sure why the X Flare probability is above 1 percent. All of the regions seem too simplistic and they all have 1 percent chance of X flares. Just wondering how they come to that

My best guess would be that's it's based on the recent huge event on the far side, and how there's still activity in the regions presumably responsible. Could be wrong, I don't exactly what their methodology is.

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15 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

My eyes also report some very tiny spotlings in that location; if we can get more people to confirm that these spots are indeed very small, perhaps we can achieve a five-sigma confirmation. It does definitely look more active than you would suspect based on that.

Also, whenever I see someone post synoptic maps where the chance of X is higher than 1% I get an uncontrollable urge to roll a die:

Screenshot-from-2023-03-20-23-22-10.png

Natural 100 on the first attempt; yikes. I guess we should be bracing for a major X-flare and another SPE any minute now.

 

Where do ya get ur dice btw? 

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12 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Where do ya get ur dice btw? 

That's an interactive interpreter (REPL) for Python.

As for this region, I still hardly see any spots at all. It's not that common for active regions to show such little sunspot activity as far as I'm aware, at least not to the point of having zero actual sunspots. I searched a bit through the literature for information about such regions, and most sources I found described them as generally shorter-lived, having lower flux, and yielding smaller flares; that's what I'd intuitively suspect too. Then again, those flares yesterday definitely came from around that region, a bit above and to the left (Solar "east") of it. The synoptic map there has it at just 5% for a C-flare, but given those C4-5 flares yesterday it could be a sign of more activity. Not that exciting as of yet, though.

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Flares without sunspots are rare, but they do occur, even an M-class.

For example, on 2022 Apr 29 there was an M1 flare from an area without sunspots - from plage region 2996 located at N25W53:

Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2022 Apr 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an M1/1f (R1-Moderate) flare from plage Region 2996 (N25, L=067) observed at 29/0730 UTC

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I definitely learn more every day with your comments.
Regarding the spot 3258 apparently no longer exists, but looking at the Magnetogram I realize that it is still an active zone and looking at the solar telescopes, I observe chromospheric beaches. 
Therefore, in my humble opinion, I suggest that we continue monitoring this zone.

Even today, Tuesday at 10:30 UT, I am launching a Class C 1.7 EMC.
So it has already disintegrated? Is it?

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3258_HMIBC.jpg

It's a semi-complex plage without much going on, and a small CH gap is rotating into view near the equator and to the SW of the region 20230321_221805_1024_0193.jpg

Apologies for image spam, I'd like to catch everyone up. If you're looking at this sunspot anyways, there is a bit of filament coiling up and a separate, long filament mass N.

 20230321_103842_1024_0304.jpg

3258 farting earlier today. Popcorn-fart level.

Edited by Christopher S.
Format altered after post, so I corrected it.
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