Isatsuki San Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 quéwhat happened to the cme of x 2 hit and it didn't even make a geomagnetic storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Jesterface23 Posted February 21, 2023 Solution Share Posted February 21, 2023 The IMF Bz component was mostly north, so not much with this CME so far. Still looking to see if a flux rope will arrive in the coming hours, but there doesn't seem to be a clear sign of it yet. Then we would need need the Bz to stay south if it does come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Isatsuki San said: quéwhat happened to the cme of x 2 hit and it didn't even make a geomagnetic storm? Looks like something hit just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Looks like something hit just now. Just a little bump in the road, it has done it a few times. At this point I'm guessing the high EPAMp has something to do with the CH interaction. The temp should drop for a flux rope, but there has only been a gradual fall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Just a little bump in the road, it has done it a few times. At this point I'm guessing the high EPAMp has something to do with the CH interaction. The temp should drop for a flux rope, but there has only been a gradual fall for a while. Yea I have checked the temperature as well and no clear indication of a flux rope arriving. So seems like it really was a weak glancing blow or we saw activity from a CH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, arjemma said: Yea I have checked the temperature as well and no clear indication of a flux rope arriving. So seems like it really was a weak glancing blow or we saw activity from a CH. Yep. Either no arrival, CH activity, or it may have between 06:30Z and 15:30Z where the temp dropped to 5 digit values for some periods of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Out of curiosity, do either of you have a simple explanation for why we should expect a temperature decrease with a flux rope arrival? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I'm certainly not an expert on it, but the arrival shock/sheath is dense and hot. Once the sheath passes normally the proton density and temperature will drop and the next thing to arrive would be the flux rope. Not all CMEs and circumstances are created equal though, but there should be some classic flux rope examples around to look at (can't post one right now, off to work). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: I'm certainly not an expert on it, but the arrival shock/sheath is dense and hot. Once the sheath passes normally the proton density and temperature will drop and the next thing to arrive would be the flux rope. Not all CMEs and circumstances are created equal though, but there should be some classic flux rope examples around to look at (can't post one right now, off to work). Is the flux rope itself cool, or just the section right before it is cooler than the foreshock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: Is the flux rope itself cool, or just the section right before it is cooler than the foreshock? At least the flux rope is cooler overall, but seems to vary. I have some graphs with flux ropes here, https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RE4Bq9vBqcS4_wHS7YAUAcyYAVRCmjYG The first and last images have pretty classic flux ropes. The component labels are on the left along with blue and red markers showing the CME expansion over time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Interesting, thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 aDoes anyone know why the solar wind is almost 600 kilometers away while the bt is at 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It is the CH that was facing us about 6 days ago, at least the end of it possibly after the CME passed. Maybe with velocities remaining moderately high until a larger CH arrival in around 3 days. With the Bt, we may be coming to the complete transition to the CH HSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Es el CH que nos enfrentó hace unos 6 días, al menos el final del mismo posiblemente después de que pasara el CME . Tal vez con velocidades que permanecen moderadamente altas hasta la llegada de un mayor CH en alrededor de 3 días. Con el Bt, es posible que estemos llegando a la transición completa al CH HSS . grace i was wondering what happened must yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) On 2/23/2023 at 3:24 AM, Jesterface23 said: At least the flux rope is cooler overall, but seems to vary. I have some graphs with flux ropes here, https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RE4Bq9vBqcS4_wHS7YAUAcyYAVRCmjYG The first and last images have pretty classic flux ropes. The component labels are on the left along with blue and red markers showing the CME expansion over time. I love how you have made those graphs. What base graph are you using for the different parameters? And you are right here about the flux rope. Basically studies have confirmed that CMEs (usually) have lower temperatures than the ambient solar wind. There are a lot of mechanism’s that goes into this but I can see if I can write something about it tomorrow when it's not so late and my brain isn't half asleep 😴 Edited February 25, 2023 by arjemma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, arjemma said: I love how you have made those graphs. What base graph are you using for the different parameters? I use dygraphs for the graphs. I have a HTML/PHP/MySQL setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I use dygraphs for the graphs. I have a HTML/PHP/MySQL setup. Ah okay cool, thanks for the answer. I'm developer so gonna do a bit of research on how I can use the data. Well done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chyren S Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 There are a few questions to solve this properly. I have been noticing CMEs for last couple of years and have been able to forecast them quite well. Now a days the pattern has changed. 1- is it like earlier CME was attacking earth surface casually n now a days, this is concentrated more towards the poles and aurora formation has increased? 2- is this like earlier we use to have long lasting solar flares but now a days we have shrieked thin solar flares with more penetration. 3- Earlier we used to have rare solar flares, but now a days we have frequent solar flares. This pattern will result it’s peak in year 2024 at the time of solar maxima of this solar cycle. confirmation on above statements will at least give us an idea what’s coming in year 2024. your help will be appreciated. I’ll post a little bit of my previous work on the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted June 4, 2023 Share Posted June 4, 2023 19 hours ago, Chyren S said: 1- is it like earlier CME was attacking earth surface casually n now a days, this is concentrated more towards the poles and aurora formation has increased? The aurora occurs around both magnetic poles, intensifying and expands further south or north (depending on which pole) when the solar wind parameters become favorable. 19 hours ago, Chyren S said: 2- is this like earlier we use to have long lasting solar flares but now a days we have shrieked thin solar flares with more penetration. Decent CMEs are normally associated to long duration solar flares. Filament eruptions can produce CMEs as well. Solar flares themselves don't produce the aurora. 20 hours ago, Chyren S said: 3- Earlier we used to have rare solar flares, but now a days we have frequent solar flares. This pattern will result it’s peak in year 2024 at the time of solar maxima of this solar cycle. The Sun is random, but is somewhat predicable in 11 year cycles. Some sunspot regions go up against the odds and some don't want to go near it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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