Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) First the basics. I always suspected that the 10.7 Solar flux is far more important then believed. With Jan Alvestad we cracked the code for the start of a new sunspot cycle. It was published in Astrophysics and Space Science. (PDF) A Formula for the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle We did beat the prediction of NASA. More important we found that 64 is the absolute baseline of the 10.7 Solar flux. A few months later Jan Alvestad found that the 10.7 Solar flux and the high resolution sunspots give the SAME DAY for the start of cycle 25 with 365 day smoothing. After these findings I found a theory to calculate the upcoming strength of cycle 25 with a 5.9 accuracy. (PDF) Calculating the Exact Strength of Solar Cycle 25 using 365 Days Smoothing https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing The expected strength of cycle 25 is around 10 percent lower then cycle 24. Therefore we are now 100% sure that January 2023 is the highest 10.7 Solar flux month from this cycle. We follow more then 6 indicators to be sure Solar Max has passed. 1. The southern polar field flip flopped 3 times 2. The northern polar field flipped on January 15, 2023 3. The January 2023 SSN is just below the highest month from cycle 24 4. The January 10.7 Solar flux is just above the highest month from cycle 24 5. The 1K high resolution sunspot just breached through the 10.7 Solar flux (365 smoothing). This is a strong indicator Solar Max has passed… 6. The 13 month smoothed high would be before the end of 2023. That seems to be around this time if we make some basic projections into the coming months. Look good at this graph. Once 1K breaches through the 10.7 Solar flux… Solar Max has passed… Edited February 4, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Jan would completely agree with everything you said above? Does the 1K sunspot count even have data before solar cycle 24 started besides just making predictions off of one prior cycle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Where’s the funeral?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 A eulogy perhaps? Mr Max was terminated as announced above. A simple unassuming single star. He was a young star compared to some in our heavens. Only half way along the main sequence as well. He will be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Jan would completely agree with everything you said above? Does the 1K sunspot count even have data before solar cycle 24 started besides just making predictions off of one prior cycle? I checked with the ISN. It works only for weak cycles. But we calculated a weak one… So outside something unexpected, it should work… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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