The Terminator Theory and Implications for growth of Cycle 25

[3gMike]

A recent post in another topic (Southern field close to flipping?) led to some references to the Terminator - as proposed by Robert Leamon and Scott McIntosh.

An internet search brought up a couple of interesting articles....

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2023.1050523/full#B19 , published 30Jan 2023, which gives an updated view of the Terminator position at start of Cycle 25 (Dec2021)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2022.886670/full#F6 , published May 2022, which proposes a cycle of fifths in all solar cycles.

It was the latter article which I found particularly interesting. because it offers an opportunity to relate actual events to the theory.

In brief it suggests that certain events will occur at predictable intervals

Terminator (defined as Dec 2021 for Cycle 24)

one-fifth cycle - Polar field reversal - they suggest this will start at end of 2023 and may take up to one year to complete. (Not directly linked with Sunspot Max.)

two-fifths cycle - Polar Coronal Holes formed.

three-fifths cycle - Last X flare of cycle observed.

four-fifths cycle - Solar Minimum They note that is not particularly consistent.

Terminator for start of next cycle.

An immediate observation would be that their prediction for Polar field reversal has already failed since Southern field has already reversed, but it may be worth attempting to match this theory to past cycles to gain a deeper understanding.

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by 3gMike
Fixed typo Cycle 25 to 24

[Bean]

December 2021 was the Terminator date for SC24  not SC25 and defines the overlapping extended Hale cycle  , SC25 had started but until that point SC24 was still present . To say the Polar field reversal prediction has already failed might be a bit premature considering we don't know if the Southern field will stay reversed and what of the North ? Time will tell on that , and whilst I'm not convinced on the clock of fifths or even the short Terminator to Terminator meaning a strong cycle , long duration between Terminators being a weak cycle ( to many cycles didn't seem to conform from their 2019? paper ) I do think they are on to something , building on the work of others, and at least their theory and papers are presented in a scientific manner , clearly written with defined reasons to back their theories .

[Philalethes]

12 minutes ago, Bean said:

I do think they are on to something , building on the work of others, and at least their theory and papers are presented in a scientific manner , clearly written with defined reasons to back their theories .

Bean?

Bob Leamon?

Covert operations to promote your own work, eh?

Jokes aside, I agree, I think they're doing some interesting work with respect to the observations of the terminators and formulating a framework around that. But I also agree that scientific frameworks must ultimately be judged by the merit of the accuracy of their predictions. That's not to say that it's black and white, even wrong predictions can be reasonably close and just need some adjustments. I'm paying attention to their work for sure, and would be happy to hear what others think about it.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Bean]

🤣, no just a simple Amateur Radio operator who's main interest is propagation which is mainly defined by the SFI  and to be honest my own view on defining a SC might be summed up by "Sunspots are they all that " Scott McIntosh has done a few presentations directly aimed at Amateur Radio operators based around his Terminator theory and even a couple of the fifths on the clock theory are defined or maybe endorsed by the SFI either reaching 90 or falling below 90 as a monthly adjusted mean .

[Archmonoth]

2 hours ago, Bean said:

I do think they are on to something , building on the work of others, and at least their theory and papers are presented in a scientific manner , clearly written with defined reasons to back their theories .

I agree, and through the scientific process, they (Scott/Robert) seem open to refining and correcting those ideas. 

 

However, events like "Last X Class Flare" seems like a place holder for some underlying conditions not yet described, since knowing it's the "last" flare requires years of hindsight. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Archmonoth

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Bean said:

December 2021 was the Terminator date for SC24  not SC25 and defines the overlapping extended Hale cycle  , SC25 had started but until that point SC24 was still present . To say the Polar field reversal prediction has already failed might be a bit premature considering we don't know if the Southern field will stay reversed and what of the North ? Time will tell on that , and whilst I'm not convinced on the clock of fifths or even the short Terminator to Terminator meaning a strong cycle , long duration between Terminators being a weak cycle ( to many cycles didn't seem to conform from their 2019? paper ) I do think they are on to something , building on the work of others, and at least their theory and papers are presented in a scientific manner , clearly written with defined reasons to back their theories .

You are, of course, correct about terminator being for Cycle 24 - I will edit my typo !

I think it is reasonable to say that their prediction for polarity reversal has failed. Their prediction was that it would not start until Dec 2023. As you acknowledge it has already started with reversal of the Southern field.

I also need to understand how they define formation of Polar Coronal Holes. Current synoptic charts are already showing a Southern Polar Coronal hole.

Like you I am not sure how predictions for strength of next cycle based on time between terminators work out, and yes it is good that the data is presented in a scientific manner. It provides a solid basis for any discussion.

Lots of things to consider and lots to learn.

There are some interesting plots, comparing a range of different forecasts here  https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle. They suggest that McIntosh /Leamon are making reasonable predictions based on the  behaviour of cycle 25 to date.

[Bean]

I did this one yesterday ( I think ) from the helioforecast site , its a shame they don't put the latest known SSN on the graph to see where we really are. My guess is by the time we get to a SSN for this month , 01/2023,  it will be just inside the error range for the McIntosh prediction on this chart 107(ish) but time will tell on that🤪.

This isn't the original chart I was thinking of from a previous post but it does list the Terminator to Terminator duration and the SSN amplitude. The question is what is a large or small cycle ? we have only twenty four to go on but no matter how you look at it some cycle strengths and time between Terminators don't fit for a prediction on cycle strengths based on the time between Terminators. When I asked this question years ago Scott's reply was along the lines of as the cycles are based on SSN which wouldn't always produce the true cycle length or strength .....something like that anyway.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Bean

[3gMike]

3 minutes ago, Bean said:

I did this one yesterday ( I think ) from the helioforecast site , its a shame they don't put the latest known SSN on the graph to see where we really are. My guess is by the time we get to a SSN for this month , 01/2023,  it will be just inside the error range for the McIntosh prediction on this chart 107(ish) but time will tell on that🤪.

SILSO  EISN gives an average sunspot number of about 145 for January, so that is going to lift the SSN a fair bit. Will be interesting to see the outcome.

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

I agree, and through the scientific process, they (Scott/Robert) seem open to refining and correcting those ideas. 

 

However, events like "Last X Class Flare" seems like a place holder for some underlying conditions not yet described, since knowing it's the "last" flare requires years of hindsight. 

I think they are essentially saying that if you have identified the precursors of Polar Field reversal and Polar Coronal Hole formation then you know, with some level of certainty, when to expect magnetic conditions that make production of X flares unlikely. Based on the fifths of a cycle and a mean cycle length of 11 years that gives something like 26 months advance notice. Knowing the exact timings of the previous events would allow that estimate to be refined. I am not entirely sure how useful that would be.

[hamateur 1953]

Really interesting stuff 3g. particularly about the possibility of precise identification of termination. Within one rotation?!  I never would have believed it possible.  I would, on reflection question the applicant to relative strength(s) as have others. That said, the papers themselves represent dedicated scientific inquiry, that in and of itself is most refreshing imho. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by hamateur 1953
amended afterthoughts

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, hamateur 1953 zei:

Really interesting stuff 3g. particularly about the possibility of precise identification of termination. Within one rotation?!  I never would have believed it possible.  

We did the same with the start of a sunspot cycle: 1 day…. Current concession can be off by months…

[Bean]

The Australian SWS.BOM site > https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6     have released their numbers for January 2023 and as expected the SSN for July 2022 is 86.6 , the next Carrington rotation in the series for peak Sunspot numbers per day should be starting around the sixth of February through to just past the fifteenth  give or take a day or so. If the SN are similar to last months we will see yet another jump in the SSN and whilst still to early for definite proof of a cycle in excess of SC24 it would seem we are heading in the right direction .

[hamateur 1953]

More sfi=happier hams! 

[Drax Spacex]

Does this theory propose the mechanisms or markers which might predict a single peak or a double peaked solar cycle?

The  "circle of fifths" Is a well-known musical concept corresponding to a euphonic set of chords that are harmonically related.  Perhaps the sun also undergoes harmonically related processes during a solar cycle that give rise to these five events equally spaced in phase.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Drax Spacex
circle of fifths

[Archmonoth]

5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Does this theory propose the mechanisms or markers which might predict a single peak or a double peaked solar cycle?

The  "circle of fifths" Is a well-known musical concept corresponding to a euphonic set of chords that are harmonically related.  Perhaps the sun also undergoes harmonically related processes during a solar cycle that give rise to these five events equally spaced in phase.

This seems like a rationale connection, since the harmonic qualities would be present somewhere in a 4.6billion year old star. (My guess)

 

Other harmonic qualities like the Zeta function also operate with 5ths. I discovered this from a 3b1b video: 

 

 

The zeta function generally refers to prime numbers, but as shown in the video, it can be a nice short cut for other problems. 

 

Inversely, perhaps the solar cycle is from a "bump" or discordance from Jupiter affecting the barycenter. The Solar cycles might cease if there wasn't another perturbing body/mass as influential as Jupiter to keep its "heartbeat" going.

 

Obviously, this is just speculation on my part, but I like what you are suggesting with harmonic qualities. 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Archmonoth

[Philalethes]

7 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Does this theory propose the mechanisms or markers which might predict a single peak or a double peaked solar cycle?

The  "circle of fifths" Is a well-known musical concept corresponding to a euphonic set of chords that are harmonically related.  Perhaps the sun also undergoes harmonically related processes during a solar cycle that give rise to these five events equally spaced in phase.

I don't believe they're making any such prediction about the peaks; someone correct me if I'm wrong.

As for harmonics giving rise to the "fifths" being spoken of here, I wouldn't preclude it as a possibility, but you'd have to find out what exactly it is that's happening with 5 times the frequency and causing the cycle to progress in the way it is. It could very well also simply be an approximation of a single cycle that doesn't have any harmonics at all; prima facie that's what it looks like to me. Even if as mentioned by Archmonoth above it could have something to do with interactions with other bodies, e.g. Jupiter in particular being the most prominent one and thus the primary suspect for another planetary body that might cause it, it should wouldn't necessarily have to do with harmonics. That reminds me, though that I have open a tab with the paper A model of a tidally synchronized solar dynamo that I've been meaning to read, so maybe I should go ahead and do that; in the abstract it's indeed suggested that tidal forces between Sol and Jupiter, and a bit more surprisingly Venus, are what is causing the Solar cycle, and that the Hale cycle is ultimately derived from that rather than the other way around. It's mentioned that there is some 11.07 year alignment periodicity between these three planets in the abstract, but I remember playing around with Stellarium and trying to see it, but couldn't find it (that's centered on Earth, though, so maybe that's why it wasn't readily visible). Definitely speculative, and only marginally connected to terminator theory unless someone happens to find a link between the two, but possibly deserving of its own topic; that paper is certainly not the only one to investigate the possibility of other planetary bodies interacting to cause or impact the Solar cycle.

All of that being said, I would be careful not to draw too much of a comparison to a "fifth" in music, because that's not really related to "fifth" as a fraction, but rather a reference to the interval being the fifth tone of most diatonic scales based on a 12-tone division of the octave (but notably absent from some, such as the Locrian scale).

Edited February 2, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Scott McIntosh]

Got questions? Fire away.....

As for the polar field, we have been tracking that the polar coronal holes are gone, or effectively gone and this means that YES - the polar reversal process is starting, but it doesn't finish the first time the [crude] polar field measurement crosses zero. If you look at the plot attached - where you see the regularity in the polar flux behavior - the field teetering around zero lasts about a year, maybe more...... then it is over and that almost always coincides with solar maximum.....

[Drax Spacex]

Of course you're right - musical circle of fifths relates to frequency domain intervals with repeatability across octaves, while circle of fifths In this paper relates to time domain intervals that repeat across solar cycles.  The repeating 5 solar events mapped to a circle are regarded as a solar phase, but they could also be denoted as a solar season (but what to call them?).

[Sam Warfel]

15 minutes ago, Scott McIntosh said:

Got questions? Fire away.....

As for the polar field, we have been tracking that the polar coronal holes are gone, or effectively gone and this means that YES - the polar reversal process is starting, but it doesn't finish the first time the [crude] polar field measurement crosses zero. If you look at the plot attached - where you see the regularity in the polar flux behavior - the field teetering around zero lasts about a year, maybe more...... then it is over and that almost always coincides with solar maximum.....

Welcome Scott! So glad to have you! Your exciting theory relating the terminators to solar cycle has been a topic of much discussion here. So far it seems to be accurately predicting the SC! 

[Philalethes]

33 minutes ago, Scott McIntosh said:

Got questions? Fire away.....

As for the polar field, we have been tracking that the polar coronal holes are gone, or effectively gone and this means that YES - the polar reversal process is starting, but it doesn't finish the first time the [crude] polar field measurement crosses zero. If you look at the plot attached - where you see the regularity in the polar flux behavior - the field teetering around zero lasts about a year, maybe more...... then it is over and that almost always coincides with solar maximum.....

Great Scott!

I do have a question regarding that: it sounded from the predictions that the field reversal was predicted to start late 2023 and finish roughly a year after that, with this coinciding with the sunspot maximum; but now it seems you're acknowledging that this reversal has started now, and that maximum itself will be roughly a year from now rather than from then. To me this does sound like the field reversal (and possibly maximum, if it comes ~1 year from now) arrived earlier than predicted by the model. Alternatively, perhaps the cycle will end up being shorter than predicted instead? Maybe I'm getting this wrong, feel free to correct and address as you see fit.

[Archmonoth]

47 minutes ago, Scott McIntosh said:

Got questions? Fire away.....

Have you ever done modeling with the sun being a gyroscope, with the different layers acting like gimbals? There is a behavior of polar flipping which can be seen in this video starting at 53 seconds. 

 

From your picture, I see the ramp up is longer and the ramp down is shorter, resembling an egg or ellipse. Rather than a circle, an ellipse sometimes means an interaction with other bodies/mass. Is this something you have explored? 

Thanks for being open to questions, and welcome to the forum! 

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Archmonoth

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

Have you ever done modeling with the sun being a gyroscope, with the different layers acting like gimbals? There is a behavior of polar flipping which can be seen in this video starting at 53 seconds.

Reminds me of the tennis racket theorem (Dzhanibekov effect) as seen in the classic demonstration in the short video on that page.

[Scott McIntosh]

8 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Great Scott!

I do have a question regarding that: it sounded from the predictions that the field reversal was predicted to start late 2023 and finish roughly a year after that, with this coinciding with the sunspot maximum; but now it seems you're acknowledging that this reversal has started now, and that maximum itself will be roughly a year from now rather than from then. To me this does sound like the field reversal (and possibly maximum, if it comes ~1 year from now) arrived earlier than predicted by the model. Alternatively, perhaps the cycle will end up being shorter than predicted instead? Maybe I'm getting this wrong, feel free to correct and address as you see fit.

I attach figure 8 of the paper that someone posted above: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.10577 (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2023.1050523/full).

The process of the field reversal has begun - it started at the terminator (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-021-01938-7 and we can track it back to the dawn of solar photography). The polar coronal holes closing are a symptom of that. In the new paper we use this information to illustrate that maximum is likely less than a year away. I encourage you to read it and I can show you any of the observations and/or diagnostics. The Wilcox superposed epoch diagnostic is amazingly robust (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022FrASS...9.6670L/abstract)

22 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

Have you ever done modeling with the sun being a gyroscope, with the different layers acting like gimbals? There is a behavior of polar flipping which can be seen in this video starting at 53 seconds. 

 

From your picture, I see the ramp up is longer and the ramp down is shorter, resembling an egg or ellipse. Rather than a circle, an ellipse sometimes means an interaction with other bodies/mass. Is this something you have explored? 

Thanks for being open to questions, and welcome to the forum! 

 

Very cool but I haven't. Right now we're working on figuring out what is so damn important about 55 degrees latitude - have been for a decade - likely to do with internal geometry (https://www.dropbox.com/s/ji6oiflxhp3d61l/Screen Shot 2023-02-02 at 6.08.44 PM.png?dl=0). If you haven't seen the movie of todays polar eruption I'll post....

 

[Philalethes]

3 minutes ago, Scott McIntosh said:

I attach figure 8 of the paper that someone posted above: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.10577 (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2023.1050523/full).

The process of the field reversal has begun - it started at the terminator (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-021-01938-7 and we can track it back to the dawn of solar photography). The polar coronal holes closing are a symptom of that. In the new paper we use this information to illustrate that maximum is likely less than a year away. I encourage you to read it and I can show you any of the observations and/or diagnostics. The Wilcox superposed epoch diagnostic is amazingly robust (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022FrASS...9.6670L/abstract)

Yeah, I did read it and see those graphics, and I believe I understand what you're saying; but to me it still sounds like you're acknowledging that the field crossing itself has indeed begun already. I was just trying to reconcile this with the prediction in the paper, i.e.:

Quote

Based on this forward projection we anticipate a polar magnetic field crossing that starts in late 2023, lasting approximately a year. Therefore, we anticipate a maximum of the total sunspot number between the last quarter of 2023 and first three-quarters of 2024 -illustrated by the gold shaded region.

The way I read it this prediction seems to be placing the field reversal a bit later than you're placing them now (late 2023 vs. now, which is early 2023), hence why I was wondering about the discrepancy. Since you're still estimating the maximum to occur around the same time as in the paper, I assume there's no adjustment to the model itself, so perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding exactly what it means for the polar magnetic field crossing to start happening. I'm essentially wondering more precisely what part of the polar field reversal is expected to occur at the first fifth of the cycle after the terminator; is it the average time of crossing as seen after the fact, or is it when either or both field first cross zero? Or perhaps something else?

[Scott McIntosh]

4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yeah, I did read it and see those graphics, and I believe I understand what you're saying; but to me it still sounds like you're acknowledging that the field crossing itself has indeed begun already. I was just trying to reconcile this with the prediction in the paper, i.e.:

The way I read it this prediction seems to be placing the field reversal a bit later than you're placing them now (late 2023 vs. now, which is early 2023), hence why I was wondering about the discrepancy. Since you're still estimating the maximum to occur around the same time as in the paper, I assume there's no adjustment to the model itself, so perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding exactly what it means for the polar magnetic field crossing to start happening. I'm essentially wondering more precisely what part of the polar field reversal is expected to occur at the first fifth of the cycle after the terminator; is it the average time of crossing as seen after the fact, or is it when either or both field first cross zero? Or perhaps something else?

Apologies - probably a bit of loose language. I think as we watch this develop in real time we'll know for sure..... its closer to the average and yet assured when the signal starts to move away from zero again....... you see how long the data teeters around zero...... so much of that is tied to the lack of resolution in the Wilcox measurements. To me its absolutely imperative that we fly up there and measure this stuff directly...... We have other indicators to look for - the bands of solar cycle 26 should start to reveal themselves about the same time.......

I mean we are testing a new theory directly against the 'prevailing wisdom' in real time for everyone to enjoy. I doubt we've got it all quite straight yet, but it looks like the gross behavior is working out (for now).....