1/17/2023 Possible Coronal hole facing earth? no warning/notification yet?

[Sieffre Involution]

Hi Everyone, just checking if the monitoring system should be warning about this yet, or is it too weak and not counting? 
Almost visually looks like the number 7 or an A, or partial arrow kind of region.
I am very interested in this one since not far behind it is of course Sunspot Region 3190 showing β- γ- δ

• Also I have a few questions/comments on this situation: So if we are unlucky (or Lucky?) and we have the Coronal hole facing Earth, with this Region coming in, as far as I understand if it does result in powerful X flares, they could be more powerful and possibly even arrive quicker?
• Does anyone know if the Carrington Event was a result of this kind of setup, a coronal hole+strong Sunspot Region giving off strong flare in just the right time and place.

Thank you everyone for your time. :-)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It’s a mini hole, as you can see for yourself the hole isn’t much open (it should be darker, see also AIA 211). Thus our automated detection will be below our threshold. Plus, if threshold is reached it must be passing central meridian, so it’s not in our detection zone yet but will be somewhere tonight. We also plot the detection on a full disk map, that’s available in our coronal hole page. 

7 minuten geleden, Sieffre Involution zei:

Does anyone know if the Carrington Event was a result of this kind of setup, a coronal hole+strong Sunspot Region giving off strong flare in just the right time and place.

Carrington event had nothing to do with coronal holes. Carrington event is only from a CME after a so called rare white light flare observed by Carrington (hence the name). As it was a white light flare, it is believed to be a very strong X-class solar flare. But previous CME’s from earlier flares from that region likely swepped the path for the CME of that strong solar flares (so called cannibal CME) resulting in a much stronger impact than anticipated. 

 

13 minuten geleden, Sieffre Involution zei:

with this Region coming in, as far as I understand if it does result in powerful X flares, they could be more powerful and possibly even arrive quicker?

Region 3190 has a very weak almost invisible delta spot and doesn’t pose a threat for strong solar flares. The coronal hole will not make events stronger.

[Sieffre Involution]

@Vancanneyt Sander Huge TY for the quick reply and answers. You and your team rock :-) 

 

[WildWill]

On 1/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, Sieffre Involution said:

Hi Everyone, just checking if the monitoring system should be warning about this yet, or is it too weak and not counting? 
Almost visually looks like the number 7 or an A, or partial arrow kind of region.
I am very interested in this one since not far behind it is of course Sunspot Region 3190 showing β- γ- δ

• Also I have a few questions/comments on this situation: So if we are unlucky (or Lucky?) and we have the Coronal hole facing Earth, with this Region coming in, as far as I understand if it does result in powerful X flares, they could be more powerful and possibly even arrive quicker?
• Does anyone know if the Carrington Event was a result of this kind of setup, a coronal hole+strong Sunspot Region giving off strong flare in just the right time and place.

Thank you everyone for your time. 🙂

Well, what do you know, this hole is actually pretty good sized… and apparently airmen right at us… (source gong.nso.edu)

Line-of-sight Coronal Hole Plot

 

and, we also have: 

Synoptic Coronal Hole Plot. 

At the website, gong.nso.edu, there are “movies” and very easily accessible archives

Edited January 19, 2023 by WildWill
Autocorrect the Autocorrect

[Sieffre Involution]

15 hours ago, WildWill said:

Well, what do you know, this hole is actually pretty good sized… and apparently airmen right at us… (source gong.nso.edu)

Line-of-sight Coronal Hole Plot

 

and, we also have: 

Synoptic Coronal Hole Plot. 

At the website, gong.nso.edu, there are “movies” and very easily accessible archives

Hi WildWill if only I could do good predictions on lotto numbers ha. 

I actually thought about a plot for a tv/show or movie: Where a few CME solar flares ☼ erupt and look like they are clearly not going to touch us. But it turns out (unknown to us) that the energy and plasma matter is in "just the right orbit arc" (from the sun's point of view) to intersect from unexpected angle. So this CME meets up with our Stereo A/B Satellites just days after initial emission, (destroying or heavily damaging them since we were not prepared). Thus blinding us from an unlucky follow up Direct Carrington Event-level Flare just days after losing the early warning Satellites.  We could make it a Comedy and perhaps get Willem Dafoe to play the SUN GOD RA, Steve Buscemi as the brilliant scientist who warned something like this event could happen and is continually ignored...  Well have a good one.