solar cycle 25 are we reaching its maximum?

[Isatsuki San]

YI was thinking something about the activity of this year and month of 2023,Will the solar cycle really be in 2025 or will it be in 2024?

With the activity that the sun gave me at the beginning of the year that doubt came to me and I would like to know what you think

[Bob Trenwith]

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

YI was thinking something about the activity of this year and month of 2023,Will the solar cycle really be in 2025 or will it be in 2024?

With the activity that the sun gave me at the beginning of the year that doubt came to me and I would like to know what you think

I think it's more likely to be first half 2024. The two hemispheres are much closer to in phase this time compared to last cycle, and it will be interesting to see if we get a single peak roughly half way between the two peaks of last cycle. Also, if the hemispheres last cycle had been in phase then the peak would have been 140 instead of 116.

[helios]

Judging by the latitude of the polar cown filaments, we're not there yet for at least another 1-2 years

[hamateur 1953]

This was exactly what I have been hoping for, as well as many others!!  Rockandroll Mr Sun!! 

1 hour ago, helios said:

Judging by the latitude of the polar cown filaments, we're not there yet for at least another 1-2 years

 

Just a comment here for those that haven’t seen a Butterfly Diagram. Take a good look as we should be far enough along in three months time for a visual confirmation of this.  

[Jesterface23]

Right now all that can be sent out are guesses. Like with solar minimum, all we can do is wait, and a while after it happens we'll be able say we have reached that point.

(early morning comment from me, so welp)

Edited January 12, 2023 by Jesterface23

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Bob Trenwith said:

I think it's more likely to be first half 2024. The two hemispheres are much closer to in phase this time compared to last cycle, and it will be interesting to see if we get a single peak roughly half way between the two peaks of last cycle. Also, if the hemispheres last cycle had been in phase then the peak would have been 140 instead of 116.

I would be interested to know how you arrived at the figure of 140 if hemispheres had been in phase. I am not suggesting it is wrong - just wanting to understand your methodology.

[Bob Trenwith]

1 minute ago, 3gMike said:

I would be interested to know how you arrived at the figure of 140 if hemispheres had been in phase. I am not suggesting it is wrong - just wanting to understand your methodology.

I simply added the two peaks.

[3gMike]

15 minutes ago, Bob Trenwith said:

I simply added the two peaks.

O.K. but first peak was 98.3, second peak 116.4. A simple addition gives 214.7

[Bob Trenwith]

15 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

O.K. but first peak was 98.3, second peak 116.4. A simple addition gives 214.7

Those are the peaks of the totals, not the peaks of each hemisphere.

I can't recall which hemisphere was which, but the one which peaked first reached 60, and the one which peaked second (more than two years later) reached 80.

Therefore if they had peaked together, the total would have been 140.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Bob Trenwith

[Archmonoth]

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Right now all that can be sent out are guesses. Like with solar minimum, all we can do is wait, and a while after it happens we'll be able say we have reached that point.

(early morning comment from me, so welp)

Yeah, to say we reached a maximum, requires hindsight. (at least how I interpreted the idea and your comment.)

Edited January 12, 2023 by Archmonoth

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Give it few years  we’re not there yet 😜 to put it in perspective:

 

[David Silver]

On a related note, solar cycle 25 is 11 years long and began to climb significantly about a year ago. Why is anyone even discussing the peak before sayyyy 2027? A few X flares fried your calendar or what? Had to ask why this thread exists. See @Vancanneyt Sanderabove

Also, I’ll ask again (third time) does anyone read Scott McIntosh’s work? 
U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

Edited January 13, 2023 by David Silver

[hamateur 1953]

A “ typical” cycle lasts 11 years, true.  It can vary from 9-14 years in length and truly, nobody has a clue why our personal self-contained thermonuclear furnace behaves as it does.  speculations only. 

[MinYoongi]

22 minutes ago, David Silver said:

On a related note, solar cycle 25 is 11 years long and began to climb significantly about a year ago. Why is anyone even discussing the peak before sayyyy 2027? A few X flares fried your calendar or what? Had to ask why this thread exists. See @Vancanneyt Sanderabove

Also, I’ll ask again (third time) does anyone read Scott McIntosh’s work? 
U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

scott himself is saying research suggests 2024-2025

[Bob Trenwith]

1 hour ago, David Silver said:

On a related note, solar cycle 25 is 11 years long and began to climb significantly about a year ago. Why is anyone even discussing the peak before sayyyy 2027? A few X flares fried your calendar or what? Had to ask why this thread exists. See @Vancanneyt Sanderabove

Also, I’ll ask again (third time) does anyone read Scott McIntosh’s work? 
U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

2027 would make the time of rise at least 7 years 2 months, which would be the longest rise on record.

Only four cycles have a rise lasting 5.5 years or longer, and two of those were the Dalton cycles.

Nup, 2025 at the absolute latest. More likely 2024 I think, and we can't rule out late this year.

[hamateur 1953]

Yes, I did follow your link.  The power of supercomputers is amazing.  Indeed.  I just wouldn’t want to gamble on the results.  

22 hours ago, David Silver said:

On a related note, solar cycle 25 is 11 years long and began to climb significantly about a year ago. Why is anyone even discussing the peak before sayyyy 2027? A few X flares fried your calendar or what? Had to ask why this thread exists. See @Vancanneyt Sanderabove

Also, I’ll ask again (third time) does anyone read Scott McIntosh’s work? 
U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

 

[hamateur 1953]

SC 25 1/15 18:00 UTC OBS was at just under 245!  However looking down todays list it appears to be heading down. We will know pretty soon whether this bump up will continue to break records. Or ???? 🤣🤣😎

[Bob Trenwith]

4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

SC 25 1/15 18:00 UTC OBS was at just under 245!  However looking down todays list it appears to be heading down. We will know pretty soon whether this bump up will continue to break records. Or ???? 🤣🤣😎

Where do I see this data? I have only seen SIDC data, which had 197 for the 15th and 199 for the 16th.

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, Bob Trenwith said:

Where do I see this data? I have only seen SIDC data, which had 197 for the 15th and 199 for the 16th.

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Scroll down for the latest measurement   (3 times a day)

[Sam Warfel]

This topic and the other one that both pertain to the maximum of SC25 have gone rather astonishingly far off topic, and devolved into back and forth arguments and barbs, even when still actually discussing space weather.

Due to that, this topic and the other will both be locked.
At some point in the future, the topics may be reopened, but be advised that sticking much closer to the topic at hand, and abiding by the forum rules of respectiveness, will be enforced.
Thank you for your understanding as we work to keep these forums on track for their intended purpose, to learn and respectfully discuss space weather science.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Sam Warfel