AR13181

[Vancanneyt Sander]

AR13181 produced a few M-class solar flares today (M2.15 and M1.03), this region grew a bit and had a delta structure present in its configuration (in the trailing section).

With the M2.15, there was some coronal dimming, there might be an associated CME with it.

[hamateur 1953]

Was following you and Mozy earlier.  It struck m e that you could possibly use this AR as  an example of hemispheric uncertainty 🤣🤣 If I Hadn’t been paying attention you could swap hemisphere designation and pull off a prank.  

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

AR13181 produced a few M-class solar flares today (M2.15 and M1.03), this region grew a bit and had a delta structure present in its configuration (in the trailing section).

With the M2.15, there was some coronal dimming, there might be an associated CME with it.

Depending on the CME’s launch angle and width, there’s a possibility for an Earth impact, isn’t there? That is, if it did launch a CME in the first place of course. 
It’s not perfectly Earth-facing, but it doesn’t seem too far off…

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Looking at LASCO there was a faint CME with bulk headed southward. I don’t see a halo in imagery so seems to me it will miss us.

[RajSim]

3 hours ago, Orneno said:

Depending on the CME’s launch angle and width, there’s a possibility for an Earth impact, isn’t there? That is, if it did launch a CME in the first place of course. 
It’s not perfectly Earth-facing, but it doesn’t seem too far off…

Cld you pls share how you determine if and when a sunspot is perfectly earth facing? 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

4 minuten geleden, RajSim zei:

Cld you pls share how you determine if and when a sunspot is perfectly earth facing? 

Was already answered in other thread. There is no exact rule as much depends on the characteristics of the CME… any blast around center disk to the western limb (Parker spiral effect) has the potential to be Earthbound. But even a Center disk short duration flare can have a narrow CME that doesn’t hit us if the bulk is headed northward. A long duration event on the eastern limb can also hit us if it’s a very long duration event associated with a very wide cane fast CME. So it all depends on characteristics (duration, strength, distribution) and not immediately location

[RajSim]

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Was already answered in other thread. There is no exact rule as much depends on the characteristics of the CME… any blast around center disk to the western limb (Parker spiral effect) has the potential to be Earthbound. But even a Center disk short duration flare can have a narrow CME that doesn’t hit us if the bulk is headed northward. A long duration event on the eastern limb can also hit us if it’s a very long duration event associated with a very wide cane fast CME. So it all depends on characteristics (duration, strength, distribution) and not immediately location

Thanks, thought there could some chart that show the favorability of the position. I understand that we need to see sunspot location as it rotates. 

[Sam Warfel]

A nice M2.69 from this AR, it’s a little slower peaking and may be longer in duration than some. 
I’m watching carefully to see if it’s eruptive, as it’s in a possible location for an earth impact. Fingers crossed!

It’s definitely mildly longer duration, and dimming detector is being a bit weird, but it looks like we may have some decent dimming 

On second thoughts, I'm not sure what the dimming is like.  I'm not sure this flare is eruptive after all, sadly