Solar maximum predictions, a pool??

[hamateur 1953]

Since Jan and company @ solen went “ all in” and predicted about 142 ssn and solar maximum this year in November.  And as we all know, this cycle ( although weak) has outperformed almost all predictions thus far, I would like to make my own uneducated prediction:   Solar maximum 2024 dec ssn of 224.    Any other takers? the field is wide open!  

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2 uren geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Since Jan and company @ solen went “ all in” and predicted about 142 ssn and solar maximum this year in November.  And as we all know, this cycle ( although weak) has outperformed almost all predictions thus far, I would like to make my own uneducated prediction:   Solar maximum 2024 dec ssn of 224.    Any other takers? the field is wide open!  

The prediction from Solen is based on Leif Svalgaards prediction of the polar fields. However, I have proof that the average polar field is misrepresented.

Thus the prediction is wrong. Who can find the fault?

Remark:the poles change every 11 years… But… did they use it?🤣🤔😳


http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
 

 

 

[hamateur 1953]

Well, Patrick. thank you for having the courage of your convictions!   It takes brass to stand up to criticism. Very few do.  A bravo from me, guy!   Mike. 

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The prediction from Solen is based on Leif Svalgaards prediction of the polar fields. However, I have proof that the average polar field is misrepresented.

Thus the prediction is wrong. Who can find the fault?

Remark:the poles change every 11 years… But… did they use it?🤣🤔😳


http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
 

 

 

 

[hamateur 1953]

Hi Mike.  I stumbled across solens recent prognostication quite by accident when rechecking something around Christmas.  It initially only listed this coming november as predicted solar maximum, but yesterday I noted that every month for this cycle has since been filled in along with their upward adjustment for predicted increase.  Nothing yet on 10.7 but given the trend, things are definitely looking better. 73 mike. 

3 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Where did you find the prediction of 142 ssn attributed to Solen ?

Patrick's article on 365 day smoothing (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing) seems to suggest a maximum 11% smaller than cycle 24, occurring around end of 2023. That would give an ssn of 103.

You might like to have a look at a graph of the filtered polar data on the Solen website https://solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

The colours make it slightly difficult to interpret but with persistence it is quite informative.

The latest data from WSO at http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html#latest indicates that the Southern field (20nHz filtered data) hit -0 on 16th December 2022. We have to wait a few weeks to get further updates but in all other cycles that indicates that reversal has taken place. The northern field filtered data is still relatively high at 47, but the unfiltered data indicates a fairly rapid reduction.

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, Bry zei:

Could the fault potentially from the data? Found this on the WSO page.

Calibration Alert: WSO Polarization Sensitivity was reduced from 16 December 2016 to 18 May 2017. Calibration has been completed and values based on magnetogram measurements have been increased by a factor of 1.55. This includes the polar field values.

I noticed the WSO tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet hasn't been updated since July of last year so I'm not sure what to think of our solar cycle's progress without it!

http://wso.stanford.edu/Tilts.html

http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif

Considering Solar Field Strength is an indicator of the amount of sunspots ...

Is this the fault @Patrick P.A. Geryl you are indicating is off about WSO's Polar Field Strength graph? By taking absolute value of polar field strength, does that mean there should be more sunspots before and after the solar cycle peak as indicated on your graphs above than we are seeing now or forcasting for?

Well… it is explained in above links. When the average polar field flip flops through zero you have 2 north poles or 2 south poles. This increases the strength of the sunspots considerably! It is too long to explain here. But a good explanation can be found in the links I already mentioned. I said a few days ago that we are at sunspot maximum… This can last 2 years. The reason is that I suspect the average polar field flipped or is close to flipping. We will know that in a few weeks… 

If a field flips back with a large number, intense activity is possible. See link lower
I also found that the polar field strength is in fact the 10.7 solar flux… THAT IS THE REASON I SAY THEY MADE A MASSIVE FAULT IN THE EXPLANATION OF THE AVERAGE POLAR FIELD…
(1) (PDF) Polar Field Strength = 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux

[Archmonoth]

11 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux

"Th e sunspot number is predicted by the axial dipole field, but nevertheless there is currently no valid theory to calculate the solar flux and sunspot number."

 

You are adding the 2 magnetic strengths and comparing to an SSN, not the size of the sunspots, the duration, anything regarding their qualities or distinction, just a number. Even in your own data, the SSN aren't exact or the same by your own formula.  266 does not equal 271, 146 does not equal 127. You are also selecting the highest SSN, ignoring the hundreds of non-highest numbers. 

 

You seem like you are looking for numbers to smear into a pattern and then point to a connection. 

 

From earlier posts you don't think the internal dynamics of the Sun has anything to do with Sunspots, which you are unwilling to explain, other than point to your own non-peer reviewed papers. I mention this because you claim that no other "valid" theory can calculate the solar flux and sunspot number. 

 

Our current modeling and understanding of interior dynamics can predict the turbulence and emergence of Sunspots: Secrets of Sunspots and Solar Magnetic Fields | NASA

 

If a simulation or model could prediction SSNs with interior dynamics, would you accept the science?

 

 

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Archmonoth said:

Our current modeling and understanding of interior dynamics can predict the turbulence and emergence of Sunspots: Secrets of Sunspots and Solar Magnetic Fields | NASA

Interesting link, but I hope that the forecast for continuing decline is incorrect.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

The polar fields are hard to measure. Almost every year there are problems. When they are flipping measurements become even more complicated.

We are flipping now… TWO OPPOSITE POLES give strong reactions… Seems my findings are what the reality is… Follow the site of the polar fields…

If one field flips to far back… we will be surprised from the strength… Currently nothing shows it will…

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

In 1979 the southern field had just flipped from minus to positive. The northern had flipped back following + - +  that month we saw the highest activity from the sunspot cycle! So.. if the same happens now… then the following weeks will be the high of this cycle…

 

1979:09:03_21h:07m:13s 70N 14S 28Avg

1979:09:13_21h:07m:13s 66N 1S 33Avg

1979:09:23_21h:07m:13s 68N 1S 33Avg

[David Silver]

The next few weeks will be “a high period” of the cycle, but you don’t really believe it is the cycle peak two years early?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2 uren geleden, David Silver zei:

The next few weeks will be “a high period” of the cycle, but you don’t really believe it is the cycle peak two years early?

We will know shortly. If the northern has flipped, then this should be the cycle high… I have several big sunspots calculated for the next 3 months.

it is a few months early. My prediction method says before the end of 2023… explained in how I calculated the strength of cycle 25

[Bob Trenwith]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We will know shortly. If the northern has flipped, then this should be the cycle high… I have several big sunspots calculated for the next 3 months.

it is a few months early. My prediction method says before the end of 2023… explained in how I calculated the strength of cycle 25

Of course your predictions will ALWAYS include "IF, IF, IF, ...", not settling down to a definite prediction until it is already obvious from the sunspot data, then claiming retrospectively your method worked.

I have checked through a number of your posts from the past, and they are littered with "we will know shortly", with very little ultimate resolution.

[hamateur 1953]

AMEN 

On 1/12/2023 at 1:25 PM, 3gMike said:

Interesting link, but I hope that the forecast for continuing decline is incorrect.

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

7 uren geleden, Bob Trenwith zei:

Of course your predictions will ALWAYS include "IF, IF, IF, ...", not settling down to a definite prediction until it is already obvious from the sunspot data, then claiming retrospectively your method worked.

I have checked through a number of your posts from the past, and they are littered with "we will know shortly", with very little ultimate resolution.

Did you read my prediction for the start of cycle 25? Way closer then NASA…

(1) (PDF) A Formula for the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle

 

and so I have several …

1 uur terug, hamateur 1953 zei:

AMEN 

 

We still can have several complex sunspots… The high of the cycle usually gives many sunspots … but not complex ones… I mean really big deltas 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

A random guesstimation from me, July 2024 with a monthly sunspot mean of 200.

 

14 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We will know shortly. If the northern has flipped, then this should be the cycle high… I have several big sunspots calculated for the next 3 months.

So far one of these things has aged like fine wine milk as of recently.

[hamateur 1953]

Btw I was not aware of the spike in the previous cycle as I only was relying on my “ meat computer” aka brain when scanning data recently over cycles 1-20.  not that it matters in the least as we both realize 🤣😎

[Bob Trenwith]

10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Btw I was not aware of the spike in the previous cycle as I only was relying on my “ meat computer” aka brain when scanning data recently over cycles 1-20.  not that it matters in the least as we both realize 🤣😎

The spike in the last cycle (about 4.5 months long) ends in another week (ie. 11 years ago). February 2012 then fell back to an average count of 48. Although that month was the exception and not the rule, it didn't really pick up again until mid 2013. But the two hemispheres were way out of phase in the last cycle (their peaks were more than two years apart). They seem to be much closer to in phase this cycle, so we may not get the double peak this time, and it will be interesting at the end of the month to see the contribution of each hemisphere to the monthly average.

[Sam Warfel]

This topic and the other one that both pertain to the maximum of SC25 have gone rather astonishingly far off topic, and devolved into back and forth arguments and barbs, even when still actually discussing space weather.

Due to that, this topic and the other will both be locked.
At some point in the future, the topics may be reopened, but be advised that sticking much closer to the topic at hand, and abiding by the forum rules of respectiveness, will be enforced.
Thank you for your understanding as we work to keep these forums on track for their intended purpose, to learn and respectfully discuss space weather science.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Sam Warfel