Is this popular video accurate and trustworthy?

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

This video is very popular from what I could understand and does not clickbait, I could understand the information but as soon as it mentioned the percentage chance of getting hit by an event similar to Carrington and the mention of a "means" of guarding against the undesirable effects of solar storms.

So we come back to the risk for electrical installations of all kinds, is this video accurate?

 

It's from the channel Kurzgetsagt in a nutsheel 

The one that talk about Solar storm 

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Orneno
Clarification of title

[Vancanneyt Sander]

The video you are referring too isn’t added. 

we’d like to note that the modern grid is able to withstand a carrington like event. So no doomsday scenario! From previous severe storms mankind has learned from their mistakes and adapted the grid to withstand the ground induced currents that occur during geomagnetic storms. As of such, major blackouts are limited to old and not modernised grids. It’s been discussed many times on the forum and we still say the same 😉

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

I can't post the link of the video, i just can't i don't know why but also, i have asked a similar question and the answers were different last Time i've asked here, that it would be an hard thing to change grids and stuff 

 

 

 

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

You can post links on the forum! Our software won’t block them. YouTube video’s are even automatically embedded. 

the answers have always been the same from my end. Just use the search function on the forum to find them.

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

 

[Archmonoth]

9 hours ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

This video is very popular from what I could understand and does not clickbait, I could understand the information but as soon as it mentioned the percentage chance of getting hit by an event similar to Carrington and the mention of a "means" of guarding against the undesirable effects of solar storms.

So we come back to the risk for electrical installations of all kinds, is this video accurate?

 

In general, Kurzgetsagt is pretty researched, but sometimes they are rhetorical and exaggerated about topics. They are partially funded by orgs through grants, so their narrative reflects some of the vision of the grant foundation. (Gates Foundation). 

 

When we look at probability there are 2 methods, the first is frequency, as in how often something happens. So, if it happens every so often, then we guess or assign probability higher/likely within the window of the frequency. 

 

The other method of determining probability is through how much knowledge of the system. We know if there is a higher background flux, like C+, then X class flares happen more often, this means our probability is a reflection of the systemic knowledge leading up to the conditions which cause the event.

 

The video pretty explicitly states they are approaching it from a frequency standpoint, and that "it could happen at any moment". Which is to say, they know little about the conditions required for the event. 

 

Weird stuff can happen at any moment, because we don't know the completeness of our knowledge, but our ignorance doesn't validate the accuracy of guesswork. (Or the video's)

Edited November 10, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Bedreamon]

As someone who still gets anxious over stuff like this, I found out via this forum and other space weather enthusiasts that there's far more nuance to it than just "it could happen at any moment". Staying away from YouTube space weather channels also helped with that, though I've heard Kurzgetsagt's videos are very factual in nature.
Not to mention, even scientists aren't sure of when it could happen. For example, this study from 2012 said the chances are 12% per decade, whereas this one from 2019 (using a different method called the Weibull Distribution) says the chances within the next decade are between 0.46% and 1.88%. I think the 2019 study cites the 2012 one, but even so it still illustrates that scientists don't know either.

[Christopher S.]

7 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

As someone who still gets anxious over stuff like this, I found out via this forum and other space weather enthusiasts that there's far more nuance to it than just "it could happen at any moment". 

That's awesome. I mean, knowing how complicated the physics are in a hypothetical apocalypse will give higher confidence in our "unlikely to happen" conjectures

[David Silver]

A recent update about preparing the grid is available here from Dr. Adam Schultz, professor of Geology, Oregon State, 8 months ago.

PBS Terra interview

[No pseudoscience]

On 11/10/2022 at 9:02 AM, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

 

Hi, I'm back. anyways, this video is made by a channel that I trust, (it's also the video That got me interested in space weather), They list their sources, they point out the  Inaccuracies in their videos, and they encourage you to do your own research. The video isn't perfect, but they try very hard to make sure that they are Accurate, and they make their videos entertaining too.

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, No pseudoscience said:

Hi, I'm back. anyways, this video is made by a channel that I trust, (it's also the video That got me interested in space weather), They list their sources, they point out the  Inaccuracies in their videos, and they encourage you to do your own research. The video isn't perfect, but they try very hard to make sure that they are Accurate, and they make their videos entertaining too.

Agreed 💯

[Bedreamon]

On 12/14/2022 at 12:13 PM, No pseudoscience said:

The video isn't perfect, but they try very hard to make sure that they are Accurate, and they make their videos entertaining too.

That's the general knowledge I have on this channel too. However, I still slightly agree with Archmonoth saying that "sometimes they are rhetorical and exaggerated about topics". That's just the nature of the YouTube landscape, but that's going way off-topic.