You had me at “Gigantic Radiation Storms”

[David Silver]

Live Science: Gigantic radiation storms have been pummeling Earth for at least 10,000 years and could strike again, tree ring analysis reveals

By Ben Turner

  published 2 days ago (10/27/22)

One of the events was 80 times more powerful than the strongest solar flare ever recorded

An aurora, produced in the sky during geomagnetic storms, is spotted from the International Space Station. (Image credit: NASA/JSC)

 

A series of sudden and colossal spikes in radiation levels across Earth's history could have come from a series of unknown, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic cosmic events, a new study has revealed. 

Named Miyake events after the lead author of the first study to describe them, the spikes occur roughly once every 1,000 years or so and are recorded as sudden increases in the radiocarbon levels of ancient tree rings.

The exact cause of the sudden deluges of radiation, which periodically transform an extra chunk of the atmosphere's nitrogen into carbon sucked up by trees, remains unknown. The leading theory among scientists is that Miyake events are solar flares that are 80 times more powerful than the strongest flare ever recorded. But a new study, published Oct. 26 in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, suggests that the origin of the radiation bursts could be even more mysterious than first thought.

"These huge bursts of cosmic radiation, known as Miyake Events, have occurred approximately once every thousand years but what causes them is unclear," lead author Benjamin Pope, an astrophysicist at the University of Queensland, Australia, said in a statement. "We need to know more, because if one of these happened today, it would destroy technology including satellites, internet cables, long-distance power lines and transformers. The effect on global infrastructure would be unimaginable."

Each year, temperate tree species develop a new concentric ring around their trunks that, added up, indicates their age. Because trees suck up carbon from the atmosphere, scientists can study the amount of radiation in the atmosphere during Earth's recent history by measuring tree rings for quantities of the radioactive isotope carbon-14 — produced when energetic cosmic rays collide with atmospheric nitrogen.

Scientists have spotted six Miyake events in tree rings so far, indicated by sudden, single-year leaps in the concentrations of carbon-14 and other isotopes; these occurred in the years 7176 B.C., 5410 B.C., 5259 B.C., 660 B.C., A.D. 774 and A.D. 993; alongside a number of other, smaller events spotted at other times.

To investigate if the sudden carbon-14 spikes were caused by incredibly powerful solar flares, the researchers created a simplified model of the global carbon cycle; inputting the tree ring data to demonstrate how carbon was produced by solar radiation and absorbed into Earth's atmosphere, oceans, land and organisms. By comparing their timeline of atmospheric carbon with the known 11-year solar cycle, the researchers expected to find that the years of the Miyake events corresponded to moments of peak solar activity.

But instead they discovered that the Miyake events did not line up with peak solar activity, and some of the events, unlike the brief flashes we recognize as solar flares, lasted for one or two years.

"Rather than a single, instantaneous explosion or flare, what we may be looking at is a kind of astrophysical 'storm' or outburst," first author Qingyuan Zhang, a mathematician  at the University of Queensland, said in the statement. 

The intensity of these unexplained cosmic barrages is hard to understate. The largest solar storm ever recorded is the 1859 Carrington Event, which, after slamming into Earth, sent powerful streams of solar particles that fried telegraph systems all over the world and caused auroras brighter than the light of the full moon to appear as far south as the Caribbean. The storm released roughly the same energy as 10 billion 1-megaton atomic bombs. If an equally powerful flare were to hit Earth now, it would cause an 'internet apocalypse,' blackouts, and trillions of dollars’ worth of damage, according to scientists. But the Carrington Event was 80 times less powerful than the A.D. 774 Miyake event.
 

Having cast doubt on the spikes coming from conventionally understood solar flares, the researchers considered whether the Miyake events were generated by supernovas or a type of solar superflare. But these alternate theories have holes too: Supernovas sometimes produce radiocarbon spikes in Earth's atmosphere, but sometimes they don't; and stars like ours are not known to produce solar flares energetic enough to cause the Miyake events. Evidence for a solar superflare is also missing in recovered ice core nitrate records for the events in A.D. 774 AD and A.D. 993.

Venturing into the historical records brought up only two tantalizing references. One made in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (a ninth century collection of annals recounting Anglo-Saxon history) refers to a possible aurora in the form of a "red crucifix, after sunset" being spotted in the sky in A.D. 774, but the researchers think it may also have been an optical illusion known as a moon ring. Another account, made in A.D. 775 in the Chinese chronicle Jiutangshu, describes what also could have been an aurora, but its existence is so far not backed up by other records.

The researchers' next step is to gather more tree ring and ice core data to further pin down the timing of the events and the mixtures of isotopes produced by them. But the scientists’ uncertainty as to what the events are, or how to predict when they occur, is "very disturbing," Pope said.

"Based on available data, there's roughly a one percent chance of seeing another one within the next decade. But we don't know how to predict it or what harms it may cause," Pope added. "These odds are quite alarming, and lay the foundation for further research."
 

[MinYoongi]

"But we don't know how to predict it or what harms it may cause," 

 

There is alot of Fearmongering/Sensationalism and an even greater amount of uncertainty in this article if you ask me.

It was also featured in Ben "Doomsday Cult" Davidsons latest Video. I do not recommend watching his shitshow.

[Christopher S.]

This study is biased to a few faults, and overlooks the shortcomings of carbon-14 dating to cast fear over several unknowns, to which only further conjecture and hypotheses are presented to the reader.

[Sam Warfel]

Classic article, starts with a big bold claim and spends the rest of it slowly walking back on it until by the end they say “but who knows”

[David Silver]

So far, a result/effect is described. The cause remains unknown…I’m surprised by replies so far. This forum is “Insightful Reading”- is this not interesting new science to merely consider and discuss? I assumed anyone seriously interested in the Sun, Earth, and reality in general would have read further into this new and ongoing research data:

Research abstract: Royal Society of London

”For many species, tree-rings can be dated to the exact year of their formation, the science of dendrochronology. Radiocarbon in tree-rings, appropriately adjusted for radioactive decay, therefore offers a detailed record of radiocarbon concentrations over time. The existence of variation from one year to the next was first shown by de Vries [6]. Using measurements on North American bristlecone pine, Suess [7] revealed the scale of radiocarbon fluctuations over millennial time scales, demonstrating the necessity for a ‘calibration curve’ for archaeological dating. Such curves have attained increasing sophistication over time, and have in the last decade attained high precision and annual resolution, for example IntCal13 [8] and IntCal20[9–11].

These newly detailed curves revealed the long-suspected astrophysical influence of the solar activity cycle on modulating radiocarbon production in individual solar cycles [12]. They also yielded a surprise: Miyake et al. [13] discovered in Japanese cedar tree-rings a sudden single-year jump in radiocarbon concentration around 774 CE. This was followed shortly by the discovery of another spike in tree-rings from 993 CE [14], and further such spikes have been found in 660 BCE [15], 5259 BCE [16], 5410 BCE [17] and 7176 BCE [16], for a total of six well-studied and accepted radiocarbon spikes. These are often known as ‘Miyake events’, after their first discoverer. Other spikes have been claimed from some tree-ring samples, but not replicated globally: one in 800 BCE [18], and claimed but refuted in 3372 BCE [19,20]. Several small events are also proposed in 1052 CE, and 1261, 1268 and 1279 CE by Brehm et al. [21] and Miyahara et al. [22].

Detailed study of these events is important to determine their origin. Better data are available for the two events in the Common Era, showing that the events of 774 and 993 CE are globally coherent, including many trees in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres [23]. Meanwhile, although the other events show sharp single-year rises, the event of 660 BCE has a prolonged rise over a couple of years, which could be due to a prolonged production or a succession of events [24]. For comparison, a decade-long rise in 5480 BCE, less than a century before the single-year rise in 5410 BCE, is ascribed by multiradionuclide evidence to an unusual grand solar minimum of very great depth and short duration [25,26]. No other sharp rises in Δ14CΔ14C so far detected have shown evidence of substructure in time.

Miyake events offer archaeologists a sharp radiocarbon signal, synchronized across the Earth, which can be used to achieve single-year dates for tree-rings in samples otherwise beyond the reach of dendrochronology [27]. For example, the historically significant eruption of the Changbaishan volcano can be dated to 946  CE [28,29]. By dating the Uyghur site of Por-Bajin in Russia to exactly 777  CE , it can be identified as a monastery built under the Uyghur Khaganate’s short-lived conversion to Manichaeism [30]. These data have been most revolutionary for Viking Age archaeology. The 774  CE event dates finds at Ribe, Denmark, and anchors interpretation of their trade networks [31], while the 993  CE event securely dates the L’Anse aux Meadows settlement to 1021 CE—the first evidence of European settlement in the Americas [32].

The sharp rise in radiation, with a simultaneous global onset, indicates that Miyake events are of astrophysical origin, for which a variety of explanations have been offered (thoroughly reviewed in [33]). Dying stars and their remnants are known to produce extremely intense bursts of radiation, and are prima facie reasonable astrophysical sources. For instance, a sharp burst of radiation could have been delivered by a Galactic gamma-ray burst [34,35] or nearby supernova, though astronomical evidence of these is so far lacking. Dee et al. [36] have failed to find evidence of a radiocarbon rise associated with any of the known historical supernovae, while Terrasi et al. [37] find a 2𝜎σ increase in radiocarbon in 1055  CE after the Crab supernova. An alternative proposal considers a magnetar burst from a nearby magnetized neutron star [38], which is energetically plausible—but no sufficiently nearby or active neutron star is yet known from conventional astronomical observations. Pavlov et al. [39] and Pavlov et al. [40] have suggested prolonged events like 660 BCE and 5480 BCE are the result of enhanced Galactic cosmic ray flux over several years after the heliosphere is compressed by dense clouds in the interstellar medium. Closer to home, Liu et al. [41] suggest the 14C 14C could be deposited into the atmosphere directly by a passing comet; this interpretation is rejected by Usoskin & Kovaltsov [42], who argue that such a comet would need to have been of a size (⪆100km⪆100 km) that would have devastated the Earth.

The wide consensus of the literature is that these events have a solar origin, beginning with Melott & Thomas [43]; Usoskin et al. [44]. For example, the events could represent a solar magnetic collapse, a very brief grand solar minimum, with the reduced heliospheric shielding exposing the Earth to an increase in Galactic cosmic rays [45]. Alternatively, and more popular in the literature, the Miyake events could represent the extreme tail of a distribution of solar flares continuous with those that are observed astrophysically on the modern Sun and other solar-like stars. We are fortunate that 14C 14C is not the only cosmogenic isotope that can trace these events: we see evidence of the 774 CE and 993 CE events in time series of 10Be 10Beand 36Cl 36Cl from ice cores [46,47], and because the production of these isotopes depends on input particle energy, they can be used to infer a particle energy spectrum similar to solar energetic protons [48]. Only the most energetic particles produce 10Be 10Be , but 36Cl 36Cl is expected to be produced at comparatively low energies and may therefore shed light on other events as well [49]. Extreme solar flares or emissions are plausible astrophysically: based on the findings of the KeplerSpace Telescope [50], G dwarf stars (like the Sun) are thought to produce superflares every few hundred to few thousand years [51], even old and slowly rotating stars [52,53].

Nevertheless, even in light of the uncertainties in particle flux from the existing literature, an event like the 774 CE event would need to be more than an order of magnitude larger than even the Carrington event, the most significant coronal mass ejection and accompanying geomagnetic storm ever observed in the instrumental era of science [54]. By considering possible beaming angles and uncertainties in models of the carbon cycle, Neuhäuser & Hambaryan [55] argue that the 774 CE event might be implausibly huge to be a single solar superflare. The solar proton event of 1956 produced an estimated 3.04×106atoms/cm−23.04×106 atoms/cm−2 of 14C 14C [56]; depending on assumptions about its flare class and spectral hardness, the 774 CE event could correspond to an X-ray flare as bright as X1800, nearly two orders of magnitude larger than any previously observed [57].

Meanwhile, ice core nitrate records at 774 CE and 993 CE do not show any hint of a signal from extreme solar activity [58,59]. At least some superflares observed from other stars are known in fact to originate from unresolved M dwarf binary companions [60], which are much more active than G dwarfs like the Sun and, because we do not have such a companion ourselves, could not explain the radiocarbon bursts. Extreme geomagnetic storms preferentially occur around the maxima of the solar cycle [61]. While the historical data on solar energetic particle events is far more limited, it is reasonable to assume they follow a similar pattern [62], as both result from energetic coronal mass ejections. Thus if Miyake events occur preferentially at solar maxima, this would support a solar origin. The radiocarbon data themselves contain the 11-year solar cycle, and several attempts have been made to determine its phase at the time of a Miyake event [15,21,63–65]. In this paper, we will attempt a similar inference.” …

Edited October 30, 2022 by David Silver

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, David Silver said:

is this not interesting new science to merely consider and discuss?

I’ve seen it all before tbh 

The ice core data 

[hamateur 1953]

C’mon, he may be angling for a presidential appointment.  

19 hours ago, Orneno said:

Classic article, starts with a big bold claim and spends the rest of it slowly walking back on it until by the end they say “but who knows”

 

[hamateur 1953]

Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has announced a Tax upon the Sun for increasing our carbon footprint. Details to be divulged when their secret meetings conclude.  

[Bry]

 

**

I thought the tree ring study might have been referencing effects of that recent brightest, closest supernova gamma burst on oct 9th on tree rings, and potentially the dart asteroid collision experiment on sept 26th as new timestamps.. but maybe the shortcomings with carbon-14 dating have to do with our reference point requiring us to do nuclear tests to make a “bomb pulse” to calibrate to.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomb_pulse

Found a really cool study on health effects of Russian inhabitants, (especially women, which are rare in Spitsbergen) near the aurora belt. This  probably belongs under “heliobiology” but I thought it was relevant to this topic.

https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/69119

“It is possible that geomagnetic pulsations, in the ultralow frequency range, most pronounced during the polar day, could modulate brain and vascular functional activity and, accordingly, certain mental states. In particular, they might suppress the cognitive processing and promote switching of the brain to its noncognitive “idling” state or activation of default cortical networks whose activity is suppressed during cognitive processing [37, 38].”

I thought supernovas were important to human evolution and drove us to walk upright, although now I’m thinking it was to run away from all the fires started by the world-wide lightning!

https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2019/06/04/a-supernova-link-to-ancient-wildfires/

https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/could-a-supernova-have-led-to-humans-becoming-bipedal

thanks for sharing David, I have definitely been thinking more about cosmic radiation sources outside our solar system, their longer cycles, and effects on earth!

Edited November 1, 2022 by Bry

[Archmonoth]

On 10/30/2022 at 5:04 AM, David Silver said:

So far, a result/effect is described. The cause remains unknown…I’m surprised by replies so far. This forum is “Insightful Reading”- is this not interesting new science to merely consider and discuss? I assumed anyone seriously interested in the Sun, Earth, and reality in general would have read further into this new and ongoing research data:

 

The possibility of catastrophe exists every moment, it's not insightful or new. 

 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

"A series of sudden and colossal spikes in radiation levels across Earth's history could have come from a series of unknown, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic cosmic events, a new study has revealed. "

 

Could be a million things, with a million potentials, with a million systemic and direct causes. The "study" is speculation about the abyss of possibility.  

 

[Bry]

 

On 11/1/2022 at 11:40 PM, Archmonoth said:

The possibility of catastrophe exists every moment, it's not insightful or new. 

On 11/1/2022 at 11:40 PM, Archmonoth said:

Could be a million things, with a million potentials, with a million systemic and direct causes. The "study" is speculation about the abyss of possibility.  

I think the point of these kinds of studies is to pick out the pulse, period or probability of catastrophe related to the longer time frames galactic orbits take. Just so we’re not worrying all the time.

  There is a theory called the Shiva Hypothesis from the 70’s that covers the cyclical impacts to our solar system from debris from the Oort Cloud as we orbit the galaxy. Apparently our solar system is tilted 60degrees so we run into the galactic plane at certain times of our clockwise orbit around the galaxy center. And our orbit has a wobble that has us passing in and out of the plane as well that might be related to changes in our solar cycle and when our planet is more likely to be bombarded by galactic debris more frequently than once every ~230-250million years.

The comet that potentially hit earth and basalt flooding from Deccan traps and other regions 66 million years ago indicates a galactic interaction where as supernovas seem to be more frequent but detecting the two incidents seem to be related.

The way in which we figure out these cosmic events is interesting as it seems to require organic materials to store the radiogenic signatures of both the ancient incident and our more recent nuclear “bomb pulse” calibration points for radiocarbon dating... like ancient trees, fossils, ice cores, etc. which only go so far back in time due to evolution or if buried and protected from our nuke test time stamps.

I’ve been wanting to share this article/blog about long term eventual demise of our solar system for discussion, though distant in our future, seemed relevant to this topic of long term catastrophe.

They mention the near term realities involving our oceans boiling off due to both human impacts our sun heating up. They even dismissed how our carbonate-silicate cycle is too slow to regulate this for our planet which was what I thought was going to save us! 

https://planetplanet.net/2022/09/15/the-end-of-the-solar-system/

Synopsis: Earth burns up, and the rest of the planets get ejected out of solar system from stars passing by.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Bry

[hamateur 1953]

Pretty cool!  But my cat Hagrid with Elon Musk’s assistance will kick some stellar butt!! 

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Bry said:

I’ve been wanting to share this article/blog about long term eventual demise of our solar system for discussion, though distant in our future, seemed relevant to this topic of long term catastrophe.

I believe the connotations are distracting and unnecessary. "Demise" if it describes a logical astrophysical cycle is attributing negative impacts to the event in question, yet the only circumstance which that can be applied is here on Earth, pertaining to the demise of its current biologically-sustainable state. So, if we want to be more relevant, let's remove the other planets from the equation, and consider the evolution of Solar Systems. Planets get ejected eventually, and exist out in a darker region of space without a stable orbital host. Next.

We'd be in for a rough time if a nearby star goes Supernova. The bombardment of particles initially wouldn't be too severe or impactful, but would definitely emit cosmic radiation to the surroundings in large quanta. The cloud itself could reach Earth within the span of a few thousand years. Betelgeuse is one candidate for such a scenario, where somewhere in the range of 10,000 years would pass after its Supernova and would then interact with our interplanetary medium, introducing this excessive, radiant, and large-scale energy into the functions present on nearly all celestial bodies. That would be impactful to Earth especially. This could happen far sooner than we'd like to believe, and is totally inevitable.

I've always been a proponent of modernizing basic electrical grids, to be more shielded from geomagnetic activity. However, this event would necessitate global climate control and cosmic radiation counter-measures. We need to pick up the pace, and fix schools around the world. No more brainwashing. Give kids the tools to save the planet from anything which could threaten it, and give them the spirit to fight that which is destroying it. IMO.

If the fields pertaining to biochemistry advance to the point of splicing in DNA and alleles to all organisms which enable resistance to such radiation, such as what is found in tardigrades, then damage could be significantly mitigated. There's still Earth however, and for that, we must learn more about the upper atmosphere, and its interactions with near-space, and advance our understanding of the harmonics present up there - perhaps it is possible to "damage control" the climate on a large-scale using energetic wave projectors, tuned to be "felt" by particular particles, blocking out the radiative "noise" of cosmic rays.

Anyways. This is all far in the future. Maybe not as far away as the dinosaurs are, in the other direction.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Christopher S.

[Archmonoth]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:03 AM, Bry said:

I think the point of these kinds of studies is to pick out the pulse, period or probability of catastrophe related to the longer time frames galactic orbits take. Just so we’re not worrying all the time.

They might be related; they might be just a long enough time scale you can smudge 100 million years or so to make it fit into a pattern on that scale.

On 11/3/2022 at 11:03 AM, Bry said:

 There is a theory called the Shiva Hypothesis from the 70’s that covers the cyclical impacts to our solar system from debris from the Oort Cloud as we orbit the galaxy. Apparently our solar system is tilted 60degrees so we run into the galactic plane at certain times of our clockwise orbit around the galaxy center. And our orbit has a wobble that has us passing in and out of the plane as well that might be related to changes in our solar cycle and when our planet is more likely to be bombarded by galactic debris more frequently than once every ~230-250million years.

No doubt, and the moon is covered in craters. The smudge room on this time frame is 20 million years. So even if we were in this 20-million-year window. the chances are 5% blind probability per 1 million years? Or 1/10000 per 2000 years, or 1/ 20 million per year. We are also in an age where many of the ort cloud's low hanging fruit has already been shaken loose. By how much and to what degree is unknown, but the field is a lot clearer than during the earlier ages of the Solar System. 

On 11/3/2022 at 11:03 AM, Bry said:

I’ve been wanting to share this article/blog about long term eventual demise of our solar system for discussion, though distant in our future, seemed relevant to this topic of long term catastrophe.

They mention the near term realities involving our oceans boiling off due to both human impacts our sun heating up. They even dismissed how our carbonate-silicate cycle is too slow to regulate this for our planet which was what I thought was going to save us! 

 

The more distant the future prediction, the more vulnerable it is prone to inaccuracy. Any miscalculation can affect the result by massive amounts. Thanks for the videos, future demise is always a fun topic. 

 

Eventual heat death of the universe is another, like 90+ trillion years from now. This entire idea is assuming that the universe is a closed system, but we have no method currently of know how big the system is or if the universe is a closed system, the presumption is based on the Conservation Laws.

 

To evaluate the unknown, at least for me personally, avoiding rhetoric, outlining the boundaries of knowledge, and learning the past history. There is no guarantee or expectation for patterns to remain, this is the gambler's fallacy. So, if the port cloud bombardment is periodic every 230-250 million years correlating with galactic movement, like a centrifuge, at what point would the disruption stop? There is a point where the disruption is not enough to disrupt the remaining ort cloud objects, since we know there is a finite amount of them. There would be a peak, a slope of decrease, and eventually a stop. 

 

Where was the peak? How many million years ago were the most amount of bombardment from the ort cloud? 

Here is a hypothesis regarding this idea: Late Heavy Bombardment - Wikipedia This describes an early age of the solar system where the meteors were significantly larger. 

The peak was about 3.8 billion years ago and has been declining ever since. I'm not saying it can't happen, but the system has been shaken out for billions of years now, at least as far as ort cloud objects go. 

 

Always enjoy discussion and conversation Bry!

 

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Archmonoth

[David Silver]

I didn’t post this topic to fearmonger or to be conflated with histrionic end of humanity scenarios, fun as those may be. ( In fact I’ve written several rock operas about the demise of life on Earth, it’s a hobby)

I felt this recent discovery of ‘Miyake events’ warranted actual consideration, and found this sentiment compelling, that a ‘calibration curve’ for archaeological dating has attained increasing sophistication over time, and have in the last decade attained high precision and annual resolution.’
They know more about carbon dating than me, I will humbly admit. You?

And because I trust these actual scientists more than illogically-dismissive random internet opinions, I remain interested in learning more about these gigantic radiation storms. That hit the Earth. Every thousand years or so.

They have been researching this topic for 10 years, we have been chatting about it for 10 minutes.

Follow up interview: Cosmos magazine, 10/28/22

 

Quote

This lack of relationship to the solar cycle means that Miyake events probably aren’t due to a solar flare, as flares occur more during the solar maximum. 

“It doesn’t seem that we know when they happen in the solar cycle,” says Pope.

“There’s one that occurs at maximum and other than that occurs mid cycle, another that occurs minimum. That’s not saying it’s not Sun, but you get about four times as many solar flares at the solar maximum as the solar minimum.”

We actually get more ¹⁴C deposited on Earth during solar minimums than solar maximums, as cosmic rays are mostly produced from outside the Solar System, and the Sun protects us more when it’s flaring up.

Pope suggests that this could mean that the Miyake events could have something to do with ‘grand solar minimums’ or ‘Dalton minimums’ – which are decades or centuries where solar activity is significantly lower than usual.

The other problem with the solar flare theory is that these events are lasting much longer than a solar flare would normally. We know from the Carrington Event that it lasted only a day or two, whereas the team’s research suggests that the Miyake event of 774 CE seemed to have lasted years.

“This is the biggest and most comprehensive study of data on these events, and all it raises is questions,” says Pope.

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by David Silver

[Archmonoth]

26 minutes ago, David Silver said:

They know more about carbon dating than me, I will humbly admit. You?

I know that carbon dating has limits (about 45,000 years). I know we look at longer timeline dating is done through uranium decay into lead. We can use meteors with zircon crystals to help establish a control group for the effects of distortion of uranium decay. I think carbon dating is a great topic, and there are plenty of experts collecting data and know more, but I doubt any of them would use carbon dating for prediction of radiation storms. (They don't in the article either)

26 minutes ago, David Silver said:

And because I trust these actual scientists more than illogically-dismissive random internet opinions, I remain interested in learning more about these gigantic radiation storms. That hit the Earth. Every thousand years or so.

Storms by their very definition are based on large systems. Super Novas are not patterned events, and storms are based on many variables. Weather on Earth (if you will pardon the analogy) is based on many complex systems, and the conservation of high/low pressures, land features, planetary tilt, distance from the Sun etc, so we get some patterns which present themselves. However, the article you posted was very rhetorical, and while you may confuse dismissal of the article for dismissal of the idea, they aren't the same. The idea is fun, there is a lot of science and speculation, but the article wasn't. 

 

Some dismissed rhetoric from the article: (The following are not David's words but from the article he posted)

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

"".... could have come from a series of unknown, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic cosmic events, a new study has revealed. ""

Could be radiation storms, could come from something local. This statement begins to lead the conclusion, while saying nothing. 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

.... remains unknown. .... suggests that the origin of the radiation bursts could be even more mysterious than first thought.

More mysteries than who thought? Its presumptuous and leads the conversation. 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

" approximately once every thousand years but what causes them is unclear," ... 

Something happens to trees with sequestering nitrogen from carbon 14, but it's unclear, again leading the conversation towards a conclusion while explicitly repeating its mystery. 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

."We need to know more, because if one of these happened today, it would destroy technology including satellites, internet cables, long-distance power lines and transformers. The effect on global infrastructure would be unimaginable."

Exaggerating the "unimaginable" into catastrophe, if you followed the leading statements. 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

....The researchers' next step is to gather more tree ring and ice core data to further pin down the timing of the events and the mixtures of isotopes produced by them. But the scientists’ uncertainty as to what the events are, or how to predict when they occur, is "very disturbing," Pope said.

Doesn't sound like the scientist are saying anything, other than "it's disturbing and unclear". This is why I don't consider it insightful or informative. 

On 10/29/2022 at 11:42 AM, David Silver said:

"Based on available data, there's roughly a one percent chance of seeing another one within the next decade. But we don't know how to predict it or what harms it may cause," Pope added. "These odds are quite alarming, and lay the foundation for further research."
 

They claim its 1% but they don't know how to predict it, it's just speculation and rhetoric to me. 

 

Here is a question? Can carbon 14 in trees be additive? (Assuming a frequency listed on this site: What is a solar radiation storm? | Help | SpaceWeatherLive.com)

An S5 is fewer than 1 per cycle (Like the Miyake event)

Could multiple S4 events be additive and create the same tree ring effects, as an S5 ? (Assuming the flux threshold is an indicator of total energy)

 

 

 

[Sam Warfel]

Remember, if a hypothesis is not testable and both provable and disprovable, it is not science. 

It looks like too little is known to either prove or disprove these radiation events as very large solar activity. Making speculation on them not very helpful or productive. 

It’s still worth reading and researching! Maybe someday we can prove or disprove the theory. But for now, don’t take it as more than it means. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Orneno

[hamateur 1953]

Orneno!! Can we have an AMEN choir???

7 hours ago, Orneno said:

Remember, if a hypothesis is not testable and both probable disprovable, it is not science. 

It looks like too little is known to either prove or disprove these radiation events as very large solar activity. Making speculation on them not very helpful or productive. 

It’s still worth reading and researching! Maybe someday we can prove or disprove the theory. But for now, don’t take it as more than it means. 

 

[David Silver]

I’m clearly…barking up the wrong tree here

(ahem)

[Bry]

**

On 11/9/2022 at 5:22 PM, David Silver said:

 

I’m clearly…barking up the wrong tree here

(ahem)

 

I appreciated the article David! Supernovas, and flares that happened since our oldest trees sprouted <45,000yrs seems super relevant to human evolution timescales to see what catastrophes we have made it through and changed us. I’d imagine the most recent supernova/gamma burst oct 9th might have made its mark on the carbon isotopes in the trees.

**

On 11/8/2022 at 5:23 PM, Archmonoth said:

I know that carbon dating has limits (about 45,000 years). I know we look at longer timeline dating is done through uranium decay into lead. We can use meteors with zircon crystals to help establish a control group for the effects of distortion of uranium decay. I think carbon dating is a great topic, and there are plenty of experts collecting data and know more, but I doubt any of them would use carbon dating for prediction of radiation storms. (They don't in the article either)

I agree, rocks with belerium, chlorine, and zircon are prolly needed to look at frequency and predict supernovas or other sources of cosmic radiation for longer time scales than carbon-14 can offer. I’m saying these ancient but still alive carbon based lifeforms (trees) might have more specific clues than rocks for more recent events and their implications on life. Whether it’s source is from our sun or another is another matter, the data inscribed in the trees might be more discernible in time.

**

On 11/8/2022 at 5:23 PM, Archmonoth said:

Here is a question? Can carbon 14 in trees be additive? (Assuming a frequency listed on this site: What is a solar radiation storm? | Help | SpaceWeatherLive.com)

An S5 is fewer than 1 per cycle (Like the Miyake event)

Could multiple S4 events be additive and create the same tree ring effects, as an S5 ? (Assuming the flux threshold is an indicator of total energy)

I’m not sure if smaller solar radiation storms can add up to look like a larger one if they happened at different times, they’d get trapped in their specific tree rings I’d expect, and not merge into one larger one. I’m no expert however.

**

On 11/8/2022 at 5:23 PM, Archmonoth said:

However, the article you posted was very rhetorical, and while you may confuse dismissal of the article for dismissal of the idea, they aren't the same. The idea is fun, there is a lot of science and speculation, but the article wasn't. 

 

I usually read news articles differently than scientific papers because they are interpreted for the public and might have inaccuracies or a different language used to describe more nuanced information found in the full text of the paper. 

I also see how with the link to the actual study being restricted by a paywall and limited to the abstract might make it more difficult to determine what is actually being found and how that’s interpreted to the public if it requires money to read it.

Thanks for the discussion and discourse, always fun to read what ppl have to share on here usually pretty interesting, even if controversial. Usually end up learning more than I would otherwise in the end, thanx y’all!

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Bry