CME23 - 24th September

[Cat Perkinton]

I see the CME from the 24th is listed as potential full halo,  Im still unsure how to find out if this is earth directed.... are we expecting activity from this? 

[Drax Spacex]

SWPC didn't mention in their forecast discussion any Earth-directed CME's on the 24th.  Looking at the animation for this CME, I don't think the angular extent of 326° is correct, unless it's picking out image differences that are very faint.  Just eyeing it, the angular extent of CME erupting to the SE looks more like about 45°, presumably not Earth-directed.

[Jesterface23]

Looks like a CACTus glitch for that one specifically. It looks to have been on or just over the limb CME.

[Bry]

Prolly not related but the Dimorphos asteroid has been successfully hit by DART!

 

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Bry said:

Prolly not related but the Dimorphos asteroid has been successfully hit by DART!

 

Wow great news Bry! thanks for sharing. I hope it got smashed and didn't send anything our way. Haven't read the latest.

Newbie

[Drax Spacex]

Current solar wind data does indicate arrival of a CME.  If Bz swings negative, I suspect it could create storm-level conditions.

In her 24 Sept update, Dr. Tamitha Skov referred to "stealthy solar storm", a CME seen as a puff in SDO imagery late 22 Sept with late 26 Sept / early 27 Sept estimated arrival (i.e. now).

SWPC says current solar wind conditions are likely from a CME launched on 23 Sept.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Sep 27 0030 UTC
...
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal for most of the period, with wind
speeds fluctuating between 300-325 km/s and total field strength at or
below 6 nT. The phi angle switched from mostly positive to negative
around midday. Just after 26/2100 UTC, solar wind speeds began to rise
to over 365 km/s, density increased to 57 ppcm3, total field increased
to reach 19 nT, Bz saw a southward deflection to -13 nT, and phi began
to oscillate between positive and negative positions. All indications
that a transient feature, likely one of the CMEs from 23 Sep, was
passing by the DSCOVR spacecraft.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Drax Spacex
One 2 Many 24's

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 hours ago, Bry said:

Prolly not related but the Dimorphos asteroid has been successfully hit by DART!

 

I’ll laugh if that heads at us. 

[Cat Perkinton]

Ooft, so Dr T was right -  out on the hills early hours this morning 🙃 that was a sight, rays higher than the plough & colours visible to the eye 

[Sam Warfel]

Personally I think this is a CIR, and not a CME as Dr Skov and others say. We may find out in the coming hours, or we may not, who knows 

[Newbie]

3 hours ago, Orneno said:

Personally I think this is a CIR, and not a CME as Dr Skov and others say. We may find out in the coming hours, or we may not, who knows 

Two sites attribute the geomagnetic activity to the CME from the 23rd September, the one above to the 22nd September Everyone agrees it was unexpected.

N.

[Sam Warfel]

5 hours ago, Newbie said:

Two sites attribute the geomagnetic activity to the CME from the 23rd September, the one above to the 22nd September Everyone agrees it was unexpected.

N.

We sure seem to have an HSS now, so it definitely could have been a CIR…

Or maybe both at once, to deliver the strongest IMF since 2015!

[Landon Moeller]

 

Believe it or not, guys, but the NASA model modeled the widespread slow CME that erupted the morning of the 22nd hitting Earth on Monday by 18z, and it went unnoticed! And CIR effects were definetly mixed in as is evident now in solar wind with waning IMF distrubance.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Landon Moeller

[farm24]

of course this all has to go down when its cloudy