Likelihood of flares being produced

[3gMike]

We often try to judge how likely it is that any given sunspot will produce (large) flares.

This paper offers a good indication of the variables that should be considered - and statistical data relating to recent cycles.

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/441/3/2208/1119893

[MinYoongi]

Am i reading it right, during/around solar maximum even Beta Class Sunspots can give X class flares and that more likely than Beta-Gamma? 

[Philalethes]

14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Am i reading it right, during/around solar maximum even Beta Class Sunspots can give X class flares and that more likely than Beta-Gamma? 

I don't think that's quite right. In the abstract they state:

Quote

near the two solar maximums, X-class flares occurred in various sunspot groups, but still most X-flares occurred in the βγδ sunspot groups

From table 2 we can see that X-flares in the period they measured occurred from every type of group except A (alpha, from which M-flares didn't occur either), so that's what they refer to by "various sunspot groups", but to me it seems clear from that statement in the abstract that X-flares are still most common from BGD groups even near the maxima.

In figure 1 they show both of these facts even more explicitly visually.

EDIT:

Never mind, I didn't read your question properly; yes, it seems that they're saying more X-flares comes from B (beta) groups rather than BG groups.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

I don't think that's quite right. In the abstract they state:

From table 2 we can see that X-flares in the period they measured occurred from every type of group except A (alpha, from which M-flares didn't occur either), so that's what they refer to by "various sunspot groups", but to me it seems clear from that statement in the abstract that X-flares are still most common from BGD groups even near the maxima.

Thank you 🙂 I mustve missed that.

[Philalethes]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you 🙂 I mustve missed that.

I believe it was me who misread your question; see my edit.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

I believe it was me who misread your question; see my edit.

Huh, thats weird. I wonder why.

[Solar_Marcel]

29 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Am i reading it right, during/around solar maximum even Beta Class Sunspots can give X class flares and that more likely than Beta-Gamma? 

Strange, i would like to know why?

Is it cause of some magnetic stuff or am i on the wrong thoughtpath?

 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Solar_Marcel said:

Strange, i would like to know why?

Is it cause of some magnetic stuff or am i on the wrong thoughtpath?

 

Willkommen zurück   

Yeah, its always related to magnetic stuff when it comes to sunspots, lol!

I'm also wondering how though, i always thought the complexer the better. Isnt a Beta Delta more complex than a simple Beta class?

[Solar_Marcel]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Willkommen zurück   

Yeah, its always related to magnetic stuff when it comes to sunspots, lol!

I'm also wondering how though, i always thought the complexer the better. Isnt a Beta Delta more complex than a simple Beta class?

Now its VERY confusing my Brain reading something on german here..., But thanks! Nice to be back here, i literally had no time

Yes i also thought BGD is better than Beta... Hmm...

Maybe @Vancanneyt Sanderknows better? Also Maybe i am missing something here...

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Solar_Marcel
Well it just sent it as i was still writing, lol

[MinYoongi]

BGD is better than Beta, but according to their study, B is better than BD

[Solar_Marcel]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

BGD is better than Beta, but according to their study, B is better than BD

But why is Beta-Delta (according to their study) "weaker" than Beta alone? I dont quite understand.

 

[MinYoongi]

Thats what im asking too  

my theory : as far as i know beta is the most often seen magnetical layout for sunspot groups after solar minimum, so a good portion of flares will have to occur from them since the more complexer ones are "rarer".

 

take this with a grain of salt, im no scientist  

[Solar_Marcel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Thats what im asking too  

Someone other has to help us out here, lol

 

[Philalethes]

29 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Huh, thats weird. I wonder why.

 

18 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Strange, i would like to know why?

Is it cause of some magnetic stuff or am i on the wrong thoughtpath?

It seems strange indeed. A first guess would be perhaps that BG groups that don't have any delta end up with weaker spots through their mixing and thus less chance of action, or have a slightly higher chance of such development than "plain" B groups. Just speculation.

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thats what im asking too  

my theory : as far as i know beta is the most often seen magnetical layout for sunspot groups after solar minimum, so a good portion of flares will have to occur from them since the more complexer ones are "rarer".

 

take this with a grain of salt, im no scientist  

That's a great point. It could indeed simply be that the sheer number of B groups are the reason for it. I suppose neglecting to account for this would be an example of the base rate fallacy (not something I'm accusing the authors of, but perhaps something we've missed or isn't deemed relevant to the study since the rates from such groups are quite low anyway).

Also, maybe it's rarer for B groups to develop into BG groups without becoming BGD groups during those conditions too.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[Solar_Marcel]

1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

 

It seems strange indeed. A first guess would be perhaps that BG groups that don't have any delta end up with weaker spots through their mixing and thus less chance of action, or have a slightly higher chance of such development than "plain" B groups. Just speculation.

Ok. But why do sunspotgroups get classified as Beta-Delta? So like what is the difference? Sorry, im being rusted in, i wasn´t that active the last like 3 Months 😪 

[Philalethes]

18 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Ok. But why do sunspotgroups get classified as Beta-Delta? So like what is the difference? Sorry, im being rusted in, i wasn´t that active the last like 3 Months 😪 

A BD (beta-delta) group would be a group with clearly defined polarities (i.e. that you can draw a continuous line between the polarities), but where there is still a delta group, either due to one or both polarities wrapping around the other sufficiently for a delta to form "behind" them, or possibly even just right where the spots meet, although that's more rare from what I gather.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[3gMike]

I have reviewed the data presented in Table 1 of the document and it becomes clear that 88% of all X flares (of 283 studied) arose from BGD regions, with the next most prolific configuration being Gamma, which produced 7.4% of X flares.

A slightly different balance for M flares with 62% of all M flares (of 3171 studied) coming from BGD regions and next most prolific configuration being Gamma, which produced  20% of M flares.

Even for C flares 43% came from BGD and 28% from Gamma

So it seems that these are the configurations we should be seeking.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

20 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Isnt a Beta Delta more complex than a simple Beta class?

Yes, order of complexity from weakest to strongest: A, B, BD, BG, BGD.

BGD is the key for strong solar flares.

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Yes, order of complexity from weakest to strongest: A, B, BD, BG, BGD.

BGD is the key for strong solar flares.

True! But im talking about the paper where it says that Beta Classes fire off X more often than Beta Delta. (No Gamma.) and i'm wondering why.  

I know that BGD is the key for strong flares but my question was something else 😅

[Vancanneyt Sander]

8 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

True! But im talking about the paper where it says that Beta Classes fire off X more often than Beta Delta. (No Gamma.) and i'm wondering why.

Well… you know that the classification of SWPC is sometimes incorrect. Plus, a sunspot region can change a lot in a day, so the day can start as beta but rapidly changes into a BGD region but the classification is only done once per day. Other thing are regions that emerge on the eastern limb, because they are near the limb the classification can’t be made accurately so they always start as alpha or beta, so if they flare on the limb they are still ‘beta’.
So there is an error margin because of this.

Also the number of beta-delta regions is very very low, there are more beta regions because of that the odd that a beta gives a stronger flare is correct because beta-delta is pretty rare  

[MinYoongi]

So i was actually being right  nice !

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

True! But im talking about the paper where it says that Beta Classes fire off X more often than Beta Delta. (No Gamma.) and i'm wondering why.  

I know that BGD is the key for strong flares but my question was something else 😅

I think you may be misinterpreting what is claimed in the paper. Here is data pasted from Table 1

Flare class	Sum	Nα	Nβ	Nγ	Nβδ	Nγδ	Nβγδ
X	283	0	4	21	7	1	250

 

Beta produced only 4 X flares, while BetaDelta produced 7

[3gMike]

I discovered another paper based on an effort by Bradford University to develop a fully automated M and X flare prediction system.

https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/10454/4106/spaceweatherfinalsubmitted.pdf;jsessionid=18463F0F3B62CB5AEAC7D02B54FC45E8?sequence=3

Don't be put off by the rather odd title that appears in the tab - I guess that may be student humour.

There is a link in the paper referring to a website, which appears to be a broken link. After a bit of searching I came up with a link to a working website which shows current flare predictions.  https://spaceweather.bradford.ac.uk/fm/ The same website also seems to cover some other spaceweather topics.

[WildWill]

On 9/1/2022 at 12:25 PM, 3gMike said:

I think you may be misinterpreting what is claimed in the paper. Here is data pasted from Table 1

Flare class	Sum	Nα	Nβ	Nγ	Nβδ	Nγδ	Nβγδ
X	283	0	4	21	7	1	250

 

Beta produced only 4 X flares, while BetaDelta produced 7

I think the disconnect is that the statistics show more X flares and M flares from B than BG groups. This doesn't translate to the probabilities.

There are significantly more B sunspot groups than BG. For example, there may have been 1000 Beta groups during that time and 7 produced an X flare. That means 7 in 1000 produced an X flare.  During the same period, let's say there were 100 BG sunspot groups that produced 4 X flares. So 4 in 100 produced an X flare.

So the probability of an X flare happening in a B group is less than. 1 in 100. While the probability from a BG group is  1 in 25.

Thus any given BG group is about six times more likely to produce an X flare than a B sunspot group. 

Hope this helps.

Will

Edited February 14, 2023 by WildWill