MinYoongi Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Hello 🙂 ! Last night we got a CME from 3088 that will likely clip us. Noaa Issued a G1 warning. In the CME Scoreboard it ranges from Kp4-6. What wondered me is that Nasa Enlil suggests a whole miss and based on Lasco i thought its a miss too. what do you guys think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Hello 🙂 ! Last night we got a CME from 3088 that will likely clip us. Noaa Issued a G1 warning. In the CME Scoreboard it ranges from Kp4-6. What wondered me is that Nasa Enlil suggests a whole miss and based on Lasco i thought its a miss too. what do you guys think? I personally am leaning NASA based on the way LASCO imagery came out. NOAA seems a bit optimistic with the northeast propagation of that CME, but would be a nice outcome with solar winds exciting to ~800km/sec tomorrow evening. This is the brand new run which has the morning CME of Aug 26th being quickly caught up by the CME last night at 17/0224 UTC. Will be interesting for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Confidence level is low so it could not arrive, but with the Parker spiral effect never say never. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Confidence level is low so it could not arrive, but with the Parker spiral effect never say never. What do you personally think? I just dont know who to side with, since nasa did not issue another run (yet), they seem pretty confident in their miss-assignment, right? And how can 800Km/s only be G1? @Landon Moeller Thank you for your reply 🙂 I'm leaning with Nasa too but there has to be a reason the model runs are so different, which is why i'm invested now So, TLDR: This could be a miss or a glancing blow at best? And what to expect from it? Edited August 27, 2022 by MinYoongi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: What do you personally think? I just dont know who to side with, since nasa did not issue another run (yet), they seem pretty confident in their miss-assignment, right? And how can 800Km/s only be G1? @Landon Moeller Thank you for your reply 🙂 I'm leaning with Nasa too but there has to be a reason the model runs are so different, which is why i'm invested now So, TLDR: This could be a miss or a glancing blow at best? And what to expect from it? You’re welcome. I believe the G1 is just to account for the massive uncertainty, not pointing out specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said: You’re welcome. I believe the G1 is just to account for the massive uncertainty, not pointing out specifics. So it could be more? or do you think less is more likely? I'm just wondering because of the high speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: So it could be more? or do you think less is more likely? I'm just wondering because of the high speed I am leaning less, once again due to coronagraph imagery. Since the CME did erupt at such a high speeds, it will be carrying high velocities within it. It just becomes a matter of if Earth will get in on any part of the CME, which is a big uncertainty until we reach the window tomorrow evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So it could be more? or do you think less is more likely? I'm just wondering because of the high speed I may have mixed this CME up with a previous one, never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 The coronagraph imagery data gap isn't too good, besides giving enough to showing the CME is Earth directed. An arrival from mid day 28th to the end of the 29th could be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The coronagraph imagery data gap isn't too good, besides giving enough to showing the CME is Earth directed. An arrival from mid day 28th to the end of the 29th could be possible. Yeah, im just still confused why nasa says full miss and does not issue a rerun. and also i dont understand why only G1 when its such a fast CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Yeah, im just still confused why nasa says full miss and does not issue a rerun. and also i dont understand why only G1 when its such a fast CME. We only see a 2D image and have limited perspective. We know the edge of the CME is coming, but with the line of impact being so close to the edge of the CME it is hard to judge how close or far away that edge actually is. If it is fast enough, it arrives. If it is too slow the solar wind will breaks it down, no arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairyG Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Watching the m4 flare on the goes16 it looks like the filament absorbed into the area where the flare emerged. New to this and not sure if that is how it works or just the imagery is misleading. Also wondering why the sun tends to have flares the same days when previous coronalass ejection is predicted to possibly/probably strike earth and if there is any official correlation. I don't get a sense that the #CME has hit Earth yet today but any info about it is much appreciated! Love to follow y'all on Twitter too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Jeez there’s lots of M classes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 It’s been in M-class for like 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 M & M flares. This most recent is even shaped like an M! sheesh The “glancing blow” has already started and will arrive on charts shortly. My nervous system is the canary in the coal mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, David Silver said: The “glancing blow” has already started Not quite the way to put it. If a CME were to arrive at L1 now velocities may reach 650-700km/s. Merged Message: The CME may be at the point of arriving any time within the next 12 hours after looking at EPAM. Max velocities would be around 575km/s at that point. Edited August 29, 2022 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 (edited) Well, a CME that launched about 12 hours prior to the CME this topic is for from the same sunspot region may have arrived first if the velocity doesn't jump too much further. ........ And 9 hours later I guess it is part CME and part CH. Edited August 29, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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