Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Region 3079 (AR13079) is the most complex region on the disk currently, it has one tiny delta spot in the trailing part of the region and it’s popping with C-class solar flares (strongest C6,9). Hopefully it continues to grow and we might see some M-class solar flares. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Thank you for pointing out the tiny delta, i did not notice it until now ! Keep us updated 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Region 3079 (AR13079) is the most complex region on the disk currently, it has one tiny delta spot in the trailing part of the region and it’s popping with C-class solar flares (strongest C6,9). Hopefully it continues to grow and we might see some M-class solar flares. Yes, it certainly shows some promise. AR3076 in the northern hemisphere is also growing quite well, and has an interesting magnetic configuration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, 3gMike said: Yes, it certainly shows some promise. AR3076 in the northern hemisphere is also growing quite well, and has an interesting magnetic configuration Why interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 24 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: AR3076 in the northern hemisphere is also growing quite well, and has an interesting magnetic configuration Magnetically 3076 is still beta based on latest imagery. Trailing part of the region has had its development a few days ago but seems not to grow but relatively stable and it shrunk in penumbral area compared to two days ago. So that I won’t call interesting 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Why interesting? The negative field is located between two positive fields, and magnetic field strength looks quite strong, so I'm hoping that gives rise to some inter-mixing 6 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Magnetically 3076 is still beta based on latest imagery. Trailing part of the region has had its development a few days ago but seems not to grow but relatively stable and it shrunk in penumbral area compared to two days ago. So that I won’t call interesting 🤔 O.K. perhaps I was being a bit optimistic, but otherwise I do not see much hope for anymore action in the northern hemisphere for perhaps half a rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 A CME appears to be headed marginally down and ahead by the look of things on GOES SUVI 284A. Of course that's guesswork until SOHO confirms. I'm just posting since as far as I can tell GOES SUVI imagery doesn't hang around publicly for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said: A CME appears to be headed marginally down and ahead by the look of things on GOES SUVI 284A. Of course that's guesswork until SOHO confirms. I'm just posting since as far as I can tell GOES SUVI imagery doesn't hang around publicly for long. Earth Directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 I really hope so Gotta wait for LASCO though, it’s not on there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: I really hope so Gotta wait for LASCO though, it’s not on there yet Its on Stereo so its a CME for sure, but this Video makes me think its mostly westward? What do you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 @HalfFeralHuman @Orneno https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-density/2022/08/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif impact predicted tuestday midnight UTC time. i dont agree with this though i thought it looked way more westward during the eruption tbh.. well, im not the expert. is it possible that it mixes with the CH HSS and/or they interact? @Vancanneyt Sander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 14, 2022 Author Share Posted August 14, 2022 11 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: @HalfFeralHuman @Orneno https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-density/2022/08/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif That’s very optimistic 😂 looking at LASCO bulk is to the west and I don’t see an asymmetrical full halo CME so I don’t think it will be Earth directed or at max minor flank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: That’s very optimistic 😂 looking at LASCO bulk is to the west and I don’t see an asymmetrical full halo CME so I don’t think it will be Earth directed or at max minor flank. Thank you! I hope you guys keep us updated. It's nice to know that you and marcel always try to be really fast with reporting even outside of aurora season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 14, 2022 Author Share Posted August 14, 2022 Zojuist, MinYoongi zei: Thank you! I hope you guys keep us updated. It's nice to know that you and marcel always try to be really fast with reporting even outside of aurora season. Well I’m reporting from a festival currently 😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Well I’m reporting from a festival currently 😂 Have fun! On the CME scoreboard it got reported with 5-8 in KP. do you think the 8 is too optimistic? " CME Note: Visible as a partial halo situated to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption from AR 13076 lifting off at approximately 2022-08-14T11:42Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 as a EUV wave, brightening, and post eruptive arcades. Best seen in SDO AIA 304 as dark filament material lifting off the disk to the west. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 The CME is Earth directed. Half of the full halo is bright, and the other very dull. The leading span looks fairly small, so I'd have no arrival time prediction. 51 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: On the CME scoreboard it got reported with 5-8 in KP. do you think the 8 is too optimistic? I'd guess possibly Kp5 likely, Kp6 possible, Kp7 unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 14, 2022 Author Share Posted August 14, 2022 53 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: On the CME scoreboard it got reported with 5-8 in KP. do you think the 8 is too optimistic? Yes, don’t forget that there is currently only 1 forecast made in the scoreboard and it was only a preliminary one. Let’s await other forecasters before drawing any conclusions! I really don’t expect much from it pure based on LASCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 5 hours ago, HalfFeralHuman said: and ahead By ahead I mean east from our perspective. I just don't feel east/west have much meaning here. I'm struggling to find the better terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Looks like some Earth-directed component but not major, maybe G1/G2. We should see something though. I’m sure hopeful cause I’m going to be in the Upper Peninsula of MI for the next two weeks, I’ll be well-positioned if there is anything to see! Wish me luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 (edited) The Parker Spiral effect may help to curve its trajectory more towards Earth. On the other hand, solar winds from coronal hole #14 might push it away from Earth. On the other other hand, the effects of both CME and CH HSS may combine to yield storm conditions. 🤔 Edited August 15, 2022 by Drax Spacex other other hand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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