Region 3081

[MinYoongi]

Bubbled up quite fast!

 

If im not completely blind though, the polaritys are not toooooo close as of yet.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Nice growers a bit of intermixing but not active yet. Hopefully it develops further with nice activity

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Nice growers a bit of intermixing but not active yet. Hopefully it develops further with nice activity

SWPC have given it a fairly strong rating - 50% C and 15% M - the same as AR3079 !

[Vancanneyt Sander]

9 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

SWPC have given it a fairly strong rating - 50% C and 15% M - the same as AR3079 !

Likely because it’s a fast grower so it can get magnetically complex fast, but as of now still beta region as I can still can easily a line between the two polarities so it doesn’t pose a threat now, but it may change as it’s developing fast. 

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Likely because it’s a fast grower so it can get magnetically complex fast, but as of now still beta region as I can still can easily a line between the two polarities so it doesn’t pose a threat now, but it may change as it’s developing fast. 

spot on

 

 

 the polaritys seem to drift away from each other, though.

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Likely because it’s a fast grower so it can get magnetically complex fast, but as of now still beta region as I can still can easily a line between the two polarities so it doesn’t pose a threat now, but it may change as it’s developing fast. 

Ah,  @Vancanneyt Sander , One more question.

They state a 5% X chance on their recent Solar Synoptic Map + Forecast discussion but none of the Regions depicted in the Solar Synoptic Map got assigned the 5%. Do you maybe know the reason too?

[Drax Spacex]

I may be able to answer that question.

For each active region, for each flare type, SWPC assigns a maximum probability of 99% and a minimum probability of 1%.  The whole disk X flare probability I suspect is 5% due to high number of current active regions (8).

If each region individually has an X flare probability of 1%, the probability of at least one of these 8 regions firing off an X flare is 1-(1-.01)^8 = 7.7%.

SWPC may bring other factors into account when estimating the whole disk flare probabilities.

[MinYoongi]

Is the Region still beta or beta gamma?

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Is the Region still beta or beta gamma?

Solen has this as beta at the moment but they list AR's 3078 and 3079 as beta-gamma.

3078 is now beta-gamma-delta

N.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Newbie
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