How high are chances of a major CME?

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

Internet is part of my life and many people's lives it's like electricity it's hard to imagine what it would be like without it, so the questions are simple: Could an event similar to Carrington's that would cause us to lose all electricity and our satellites happen to us in our lifetime? I've heard the chances where about 12% by Solar cycle is it true ?  Could another "less serious" event like the one in 2003 happen again? during our lifetime

Edited August 9, 2022 by Orneno

[MinYoongi]

No. As stated in the FAQ that is very unlikely.

 

Dr.Tamitha Skov did many videos about this on Youtube too, we're able to ride out those intense Events. We make our Infrastructure able to do that bit for bit. 

Ofc problems could occur, but worrying about that is as useful as worrying that yellowstone supervulcano will erupt, you know what i mean? unlikely. but even if, we could do nothing really in case such a severe catastrophe happens.

PS : up to 12% chance is still 88% chance for a no.

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

Thank for the answer

[MinYoongi]

Youre welcome! Dont consume too much fearmongering on youtube. 

I can recommend Dr.Tamitha Skov  

[Sam Warfel]

Agreed with MinYoongi. 

[Marcardo]

Good question. 

[Philalethes]

14 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

No. As stated in the FAQ that is very unlikely.

 

Dr.Tamitha Skov did many videos about this on Youtube too, we're able to ride out those intense Events. We make our Infrastructure able to do that bit for bit. 

Ofc problems could occur, but worrying about that is as useful as worrying that yellowstone supervulcano will erupt, you know what i mean? unlikely. but even if, we could do nothing really in case such a severe catastrophe happens.

PS : up to 12% chance is still 88% chance for a no.

Well, there are different degrees of worry. A direct hit from a CME associated with an X40-X50 flare, or even stronger, especially with the weakening magnetic field, could definitely cause major problems for the global power grid. Transformers would be particularly vulnerable, and replacing large transformers is no small feat. The problem could potentially compound, since manufacture and replacement of such technologies itself relies on a working power grid, and in a worst-case scenario the entire grid could come to a screeching halt, leaving millions, if not tens or hundreds of millions, with little to no access to electricity for many years, possibly even decades. This is all a lot more likely as far as I'm concerned than Yellowstone erupting.

In other words, while I agree there's zero point in constantly thinking about it to the point of crippling anxiety, it's definitely a scenario that's worth thinking about, and to perhaps at least have formed some sort of contingency plan for, at least if you like to be prepared for the worst. There are obviously certain courses of action that would be preferable to others under such circumstances.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 uren geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei:

Well, there are different degrees of worry. A direct hit from a CME associated with an X40-X50 flare, or even stronger, especially with the weakening magnetic field, could definitely cause major problems for the global power grid. Transformers would be particularly vulnerable, and replacing large transformers is no small feat. The problem could potentially compound, since manufacture and replacement of such technologies itself relies on a working power grid, and in a worst-case scenario the entire grid could come to a screeching halt, leaving millions, if not tens or hundreds of millions, with little to no access to electricity for many years, possibly even decades. This is all a lot more likely as far as I'm concerned than Yellowstone erupting.

In other words, while I agree there's zero point in constantly thinking about it to the point of crippling anxiety, it's definitely a scenario that's worth thinking about, and to perhaps at least have formed some sort of contingency plan for, at least if you like to be prepared for the worst. There are obviously certain courses of action that would be preferable to others under such circumstances.

Like already said the grid always takes precautions when significant activity happens to prevent the grid from going down. The modern grid can handle a Carrington like event now. Also the chances of a direct hit is also pretty low as we've seen with many many CME's most are a glancing blow and sometimes it's directly at us but still it depends on the characteristics and CME propagation if it will be a direct hit. For example the X17 in 2003 that occurred center disk was a direct hit that caused the last severe geomagnetic storm, even that didn't knock the grid down (ok few problems occurred but no major outages), the stronger X28 was on the limb. 

[Philalethes]

On 8/9/2022 at 4:50 PM, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Like already said the grid always takes precautions when significant activity happens to prevent the grid from going down. The modern grid can handle a Carrington like event now. Also the chances of a direct hit is also pretty low as we've seen with many many CME's most are a glancing blow and sometimes it's directly at us but still it depends on the characteristics and CME propagation if it will be a direct hit. For example the X17 in 2003 that occurred center disk was a direct hit that caused the last severe geomagnetic storm, even that didn't knock the grid down (ok few problems occurred but no major outages), the stronger X28 was on the limb. 

For certain components of the grid this is not feasible, especially for the largest transformers that form the backbone of many operations. This, combined with the principles by which transformers work, is why I pointed out that large transformers would be among the most vulnerable and critical parts of the grid; and as also pointed out, they'd be among the most difficult to replace.

Sure, the risk of a direct hit, especially from a very powerful flare and CME, is indeed quite low, but it's not exactly unimaginable. If I were to take a wild guess, I'd say the chance of it happening is orders of magnitude larger than an eruption of Yellowstone (but of course, with both probabilities being very low in absolute terms; it's not like you can really quantify those probabilities very well anyway).

As for the X17 in 2003, that's well and good, but there's quite a big difference between that an an X50 or beyond, especially if the same sunspot(s) producing it "clears the way" with a smaller CME beforehand, like the Carrington Event is guessed to have done. There's also the very real matter of the continuously weakening magnetic field, which would make such an event even more impactful.

All in all it's definitely something to keep in the back of one's mind, but as I said before, nothing to have crippling anxiety about.

[Andrey M]

 There are a lot of extended dark lines on the sun right now - are they all filaments that could be erupted as coronal mass ejections?

[David Silver]

This interview with Professor of Geophysics Adam Schultz on PBS gives an update on how they are assessing and trying to prepare the grid for an inevitable solar event. They are surprised to learn the ground current is far more variable than expected Induced Ground Current variability

 

[Newbie]

6 hours ago, Andrey M said:

 There are a lot of extended dark lines on the sun right now - are they all filaments that could be erupted as coronal mass ejections?

Solar filaments can last a long time before they disappear. Some survive for weeks! When solar filaments become unstable they can either fall back onto the Sun or erupt into space, sending a coronal mass ejection away from the Sun which can come towards Earth if the solar filament was well positioned otherwise it will pass by the Earth without effect.

N.

[Archmonoth]

On 8/8/2022 at 1:21 PM, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

Internet is part of my life and many people's lives it's like electricity it's hard to imagine what it would be like without it, so the questions are simple: Could an event similar to Carrington's that would cause us to lose all electricity and our satellites happen to us in our lifetime? I've heard the chances where about 12% by Solar cycle is it true ?  Could another "less serious" event like the one in 2003 happen again? during our lifetime

Probability is a reflection of knowledge. So if the chance is 12% of occurrence, what is the frequency of events? 

 

We can see when there are more c-class flares erupting the chance for m-x class flares goes up, because the conditions, the averages, and the amount of information is showing a change in the conditions leading to bigger events. 

 

Electricity, internet, comforts you enjoy are more likely to be disrupted by known issues on Earth, like rolling blackouts from unprepared grids during cold weather, windstorms, and heat. France for example is having issues with their grid due to heat, and sometimes has to shut down their nuclear plants to conserve on water. Texas has power issues due to heat, cold, storms, and malmanagement. 

 

These issues are local and known and have more of a chance at disrupting your internet than a solar event. 

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Tormentius]

On 8/8/2022 at 5:49 PM, MinYoongi said:

Youre welcome! Dont consume too much fearmongering on youtube. 

I can recommend Dr.Tamitha Skov  

Hey MinYoogi where are the videos where Dr Tamitha Skov says the grid can handle the extreme events because I can’t find them on her channel

On 8/8/2022 at 5:49 PM, MinYoongi said:

Youre welcome! Dont consume too much fearmongering on youtube. 

I can recommend Dr.Tamitha Skov  

I only ask because I’ve seen some earlier videos of her where she says that she doesn’t think the grid can handle a Carrington Event so I was wondering where you saw her say that it can handle it 

[Jesterface23]

When it comes down to it, the only way we will know where the power grid holds up or goes down is when we have a second top 2 strongest geomagnetic event impacting Earth. The good news is technology and innovations are only getting better.

[Newbie]

With due respect to everyone who reads this, there are so many more naturally occurring events capable of impacting life and infrastructure on this planet, far more certain than the chance of any catastrophic solar event. Is it perhaps because the Sun holds a certain mystique? it's workings are largely unknown, not yet discovered.

The magnetic field surrounding the Earth does a great job at protecting us from the ravages of the Sun, if it takes a hit, it bounces back. This has been mentioned on this forum time and time again. 

Earthquakes, flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes, famine, potable water, war etc etc. I believe these issues are the real, more pressing threats to life and infrastructure. 

I'm not trivialising the impact a severe solar storm could have on power grids however the agencies and people who have an  investment in their continuance and maintenance are well aware of potential impacts and spend great amounts of both money and time towards minimising any possible effects. 

Newbie

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

23 hours ago, Newbie said:

With due respect to everyone who reads this, there are so many more naturally occurring events capable of impacting life and infrastructure on this planet, far more certain than the chance of any catastrophic solar event. Is it perhaps because the Sun holds a certain mystique? it's workings are largely unknown, not yet discovered.

The magnetic field surrounding the Earth does a great job at protecting us from the ravages of the Sun, if it takes a hit, it bounces back. This has been mentioned on this forum time and time again. 

Earthquakes, flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes, famine, potable water, war etc etc. I believe these issues are the real, more pressing threats to life and infrastructure. 

I'm not trivialising the impact a severe solar storm could have on power grids however the agencies and people who have an  investment in their continuance and maintenance are well aware of potential impacts and spend great amounts of both money and time towards minimising any possible effects. 

Newbie

 

I don't think it has to do with the "mystique" at all, but rather that the destruction that such an event could bring would be radically different from most other natural disasters. Floods and storms and volcanic eruptions and earthquakes all wreak havoc, but the way CMEs target the electrical grid in the worst case scenarios while leaving everything else intact (apart from anything that might catch fire from the resultant activity, as well as perhaps things like geological stress, but that's more speculative) sets it apart from those other types of destruction. I do however agree that such events in general are much more frequent and likely, but it's difficult to adjust for rarity relative to destruction, since the most destructive events are still very rare, and even more so for very destructive Solar events.

Also, as I've mentioned in a couple of posts in this thread already, Earth's magnetic field has been steadily declining for a long time now, and shows no sign of stopping. This means less protection not just in the event of a large CME, but also for smaller ones and certain other types of activity, such as cosmic radiation.

As for the people maintaining the grids being prepared, I strongly doubt that the grid is prepared for exceptional CMEs. There's always a tradeoff being made, and accounting for such extraordinary events would most likely be a total waste of resources for the most part, but would also mean that the grid could really suffer if it were to take such a hit. I've described above the vulnerability of large transformers in particular, and how they could prove to be very difficult to replace under such circumstances, and in the worst cases you could very well end up with a positive feedback loop where the problem just gets worse and worse with time as the lack of a proper grid makes it harder to maintain the other parts of it too, to the point where the entire thing unravels. People tend to not appreciate how the current grid isn't something you can replace like you do a toothbrush, but something that has essentially "grown" in an organic fashion over the course of the past century or so. In that manner, to draw a parallel to other systems that grow organically, e.g. plants, such systems are not really something you can artificially put together if you destroy them; sure, if some leaves wilt due to lack of certain nutrients or biological activity in the soil, or lack of sunlight or water, adjustments can be made to maintain them, but if too much of the plant dies, the whole of it might become unable to sustain itself and die off in its entirety (that would obviously be a metaphor for the absolutely worst case scenario of the power grid), and the only way to replace it at that point would be to grow a new one from scratch. Maybe that's stretching the analogy too far, but I'm sure you see my point, and that it's not necessarily always as simple as thinking that you can always just replace some parts and that things will be fine and go "back to normal".

On 8/12/2022 at 1:10 AM, Jesterface23 said:

When it comes down to it, the only way we will know where the power grid holds up or goes down is when we have a second top 2 strongest geomagnetic event impacting Earth. The good news is technology and innovations are only getting better.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[Newbie]

37 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I don't think it has to do with the "mystique" at all, but rather that the destruction that such an event could bring would be radically different from most other natural disasters. Floods and storms and volcanic eruptions and earthquakes all wreak havoc, but the way CMEs target the electrical grid in the worst case scenarios while leaving everything else intact (apart from anything that might catch fire from the resultant activity, as well as perhaps things like geological stress, but that's more speculative) sets it apart from those other types of destruction. I do however agree that such events in general are much more frequent and likely, but it's difficult to adjust for rarity relative to destruction, since the most destructive events are still very rare, and even more so for very destructive Solar events.

Also, as I've mentioned in a couple of posts in this thread already, Earth's magnetic field has been steadily declining for a long time now, and shows no sign of stopping. This means less protection not just in the event of a large CME, but also for smaller ones and certain other types of activity, such as cosmic radiation.

As for the people maintaining the grids being prepared, I strongly doubt that the grid is prepared for exceptional CMEs. There's always a tradeoff being made, and accounting for such extraordinary events would most likely be a total waste of resources for the most part, but would also mean that the grid could really suffer if it were to take such a hit. I've described above the vulnerability of large transformers in particular, and how they could prove to be very difficult to replace under such circumstances, and in the worst cases you could very well end up with a positive feedback loop where the problem just gets worse and worse with time as the lack of a proper grid makes it harder to maintain the other parts of it too, to the point where the entire thing unravels. People tend to not appreciate how the current grid isn't something you can replace like you do a toothbrush, but something that has essentially "grown" in an organic fashion over the course of the past century or so. In that manner, to draw a parallel to other systems that grow organically, e.g. plants, such systems are not really something you can artificially put together if you destroy them; sure, if some leaves wilt due to lack of certain nutrients or biological activity in the soil, or lack of sunlight or water, adjustments can be made to maintain them, but if too much of the plant dies, the whole of it might become unable to sustain itself and die off in its entirety (that would obviously be a metaphor for the absolutely worst case scenario of the power grid), and the only way to replace it at that point would be to grow a new one from scratch. Maybe that's stretching the analogy too far, but I'm sure you see my point, and that it's not necessarily always as simple as thinking that you can always just replace some parts and that things will be fine and go "back to normal".

 

I mostly agree with you PB (please excuse the shortening of your name). 

My intent was to put such events into context and perspective. There are many people who are extremely anxious about the occurence of Carrington type events, even solar storms in general, from Kp4 or 5 and higher.

A few strategically placed nuclear bombs!  What affect will that on power grids etc etc.?

Many eyes watch for PHA's, potentially hazardous asteroids, capable of causing great upheavals on the Earth.

People can harbour a great fear or dread of these things for a lot of their lives, yet get hit and killed by a car they didn't see coming or fall to some terrible disease or die from anaphylaxis, stung by a bee or eating a peanut. Who foresaw COVID 19? Please, I'm not being flippant.

For a lot of people the Sun is mysterious and I believe the more that people study it, the Sun, the more they realise the little they actually do know, just MHO.

I acknowledge that the Earth's magnetic field has over recent times been weakening, I don't believe this is a new thing as the magnetic poles of the Earth have flipped often. The forces that generate our magnetic field are constantly changing, the field itself is also in continual flux, its strength waxing and waning over time. This causes the location of Earth's magnetic north and south poles to gradually shift, and to even completely flip locations every 300,000 years or so...but to this point in time it has done a pretty good job protecting us.  

I do see your point PB, will mankind pay for his reliance on energy from electricity, nuclear, coal? I have also read where it might take 10 years to fully restore such infrastructure if such an event took place meanwhile everyone is happily plugging in their electric toothbrush to clean their teeth. Time to go 'off grid'?

Are the players truly prepared?  My hope is that they are working towards that end... but it's conjecture isn't it?.

Maybe the flies on the walls know...

...and it's an apt meme!

Newbie

[Philalethes]

10 hours ago, Newbie said:

I mostly agree with you PB (please excuse the shortening of your name). 

My intent was to put such events into context and perspective. There are many people who are extremely anxious about the occurence of Carrington type events, even solar storms in general, from Kp4 or 5 and higher.

A few strategically placed nuclear bombs!  What affect will that on power grids etc etc.?

Many eyes watch for PHA's, potentially hazardous asteroids, capable of causing great upheavals on the Earth.

People can harbour a great fear or dread of these things for a lot of their lives, yet get hit and killed by a car they didn't see coming or fall to some terrible disease or die from anaphylaxis, stung by a bee or eating a peanut. Who foresaw COVID 19? Please, I'm not being flippant.

For a lot of people the Sun is mysterious and I believe the more that people study it, the Sun, the more they realise the little they actually do know, just MHO.

I acknowledge that the Earth's magnetic field has over recent times been weakening, I don't believe this is a new thing as the magnetic poles of the Earth have flipped often. The forces that generate our magnetic field are constantly changing, the field itself is also in continual flux, its strength waxing and waning over time. This causes the location of Earth's magnetic north and south poles to gradually shift, and to even completely flip locations every 300,000 years or so...but to this point in time it has done a pretty good job protecting us.  

I do see your point PB, will mankind pay for his reliance on energy from electricity, nuclear, coal? I have also read where it might take 10 years to fully restore such infrastructure if such an event took place meanwhile everyone is happily plugging in their electric toothbrush to clean their teeth. Time to go 'off grid'?

Are the players truly prepared?  My hope is that they are working towards that end... but it's conjecture isn't it?.

Maybe the flies on the walls know...

...and it's an apt meme!

Newbie

Well, I've stated many times throughout the thread that it's certainly nothing to have crippling anxiety over, but it's a vulnerability in a system most people relies on this day that is quite different from the destruction caused by most natural disasters, since they at least tend to be more localized. You could of course blow up strategic points of the grid and achieve the same results, but that's not really the point.

It's not ultimately about recommending that people go off grid, but rather that people should be aware of how much they rely on it, and at the very least consider its possible vulnerabilities when making choices, such as e.g. choices to rely more on the grid or less on the grid.

And yes, the magnetic field weakening is certainly nothing new in terms of geological time, pole reversals have indeed been found to have occurred myriad times in the deep past, although there's still raging debate regarding how quickly such reversals generally occur. What's more "alarming" about the current trend is rather precisely what you say, namely that it's done a good job of protecting us for as long as we've known, probably for as long as civilization has existed if we are to go by previous estimates of how often such occurs, and yet the current weakening has been observed for at least 150-200 years now, and even seems to be accelerating somewhat.

What I'm suggesting is essentially not to break down in fear, but at the very least to not nonchalantly dismiss it out of hand, because in my view that would be more like building your home at the base of an active volcano or right on the banks of a large river that floods yearly.

[Tormentius]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Well, I've stated many times throughout the thread that it's certainly nothing to have crippling anxiety over, but it's a vulnerability in a system most people relies on this day that is quite different from the destruction caused by most natural disasters, since they at least tend to be more localized. You could of course blow up strategic points of the grid and achieve the same results, but that's not really the point.

It's not ultimately about recommending that people go off grid, but rather that people should be aware of how much they rely on it, and at the very least consider its possible vulnerabilities when making choices, such as e.g. choices to rely more on the grid or less on the grid.

And yes, the magnetic field weakening is certainly nothing new in terms of geological time, pole reversals have indeed been found to have occurred myriad times in the deep past, although there's still raging debate regarding how quickly such reversals generally occur. What's more "alarming" about the current trend is rather precisely what you say, namely that it's done a good job of protecting us for as long as we've known, probably for as long as civilization has existed if we are to go by previous estimates of how often such occurs, and yet the current weakening has been observed for at least 150-200 years now, and even seems to be accelerating somewhat.

What I'm suggesting is essentially not to break down in fear, but at the very least to not nonchalantly dismiss it out of hand, because in my view that would be more like building your home at the base of an active volcano or right on the banks of a large river that floods yearly.

The weakening magnetic field has been mentioned repeatedly in regards to this but everyone forgets to mention that scientists are in disagreement about whether it’s truly going to continue weakening.

I’ve seen several scientists who have said that the field is actually stronger than it’s usual average and that there is no sign that the poles are about to flip.

In fact a new study just came out around two months ago suggesting that the South Atlantic Anomaly does not indicate that the field is weakening and may be about to strengthen again.

This is not even that new of an idea as some have suggested that the anomaly has been there for close to a million years and indicates nothing 

Now I am not saying who is right or wrong but I see many who are obsessively worried about CMEs bring this up without going into the fact that it may not be the case.

Especially considering that the solar experts who are concerned about CMEs never mention this. On that note, we have to remember that most experts who are solar physicists who work with NOAA and the power grid do not believe in the apocalyptic scenario 

The old studies suggesting permanent damage of the transformers have been largely discredited. Because of the short amount of time that the currents from a CME last, it would most likely cause voltage instability in the vast majority of transformers.

Granted voltage instability would still be a disruptive event as these experts say but not the end of civilization event some make it out to be.

There may be some cases of transformers suffering physical damage but most likely will not be in the majority of cases. Not to mention that not every state will be affected the same. Some would still have a grid that is relatively intact so keep that in mind 

So hope that provides some perspective 

 

[Bry]

I like preparing for disasters and feel less stressed when I know adequate time has been spent to make a plan. I think worrying comes from knowing responsible parties are not as responsible as we imagine and in fact requires our own participation and understanding to function, which feels limited in today’s world. I think worrying over this stuff is not just coming out of fearmongering, but a realization that  we too are responsibile for taking part in understanding our part, any changes, new safety plans, and communicating it to each other. Most people don’t know about space weather or it’s effects within 200 miles of the largest tech hub which is dependent on this fluctuating energy distribution system.

I do think we could have seen covid coming unfortunately ...because I think we have had plenty of data from medieval and colonial times learning how globalization, overcrowding, exploitation of vulnerable populations, pollution, travel, and a warmer climate has historically been associated with higher rates of disease transmission. Not to mention the prior SARS and avian flu outbreaks in the 2000’s, and back to back housing crisis could have hinted at something.

But pattern recognition is fun hopefully, and not stressful to apply to solutions. Humans seem too good at it to get stressed from tracking our eventual disasters and preparing along the way... as long as you aren’t busy already dealing with it! I see tracking hurricanes to be like tracking sunspots development across the sun with more local impacts.

With regards to electrical grid vulnerability to space weather:

We keep getting all these gosh darn wildfires from transformers blowing in California at the slightest changes in grid use..  Solar effects manifest differently in different parts of the globe, and here we get fires, power outages, and earthquakes and no aurora.

I keep thinking a problem with powerline vulnerability in fire prone latitudes is that we rely on the power line grounds to be conductive in the soil below and in a drought prone region, and it’s not. So when a current surge happens near faults, it shorts into the ground which is resistive (less conductive)and it heats up and catches our flammable hydrocarbon soil on fire.. and the brush.

My short solution: wet the ground.

Longer solution: Reroute power lines in shorter segments, in less vulnerable orientations to our magnetic direction and tilt, and avoidance of crossing faults with changes in soil conductivity. 

theirs: put power lines underground in flammable areas (a.k.a. Near oil fields/wells, along oil trapping geologic structures) where we can’t see or address the same ground resistivity problems.

The reason we don’t have a train tunneling through our mountains crossing the slip fault, is the same reasons having our power being underground might have the same explosive outcome due to our region being a series of oil basins and traps.

 

Fearmongering might come out of a general need to come up with specific solutions to our specific local geographic needs. Now that more people know about space weather across the globe we can see more diversity in its geographic effects potentially.

Here is a song that reminds me of this sentiment regarding our plight in relying on experts to think about problems they might not even be aware of. 

We are not powerless to our plight if can teach each other all how to be experts and help current ones make better decisions on our behalf. More participation in deciding solutions would ease the burden, worry, and stress collectively.

 

Regarding the Carrington event possibility:

Assuming El Niño/la Nina cycles are tied to solar cycles;

Apparently, California experienceing a crazy flood in 1862, that made a giant lake in the middle of it. According to extreme weather experts, the state is expecting another event like this it seems in the next forty years... and that makes we wonder if a carrington like even might happen within that time frame considering links between our La Niña/el nino cycles and solar cycle. I don’t think we need to wait until then to do the outreach needed to prepare for the localized effects in unexpected places.

here is an article just written about this flood potential:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/12/weather/california-megaflood-study/index.html

Edited August 13, 2022 by Bry

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Tormentius said:

The weakening magnetic field has been mentioned repeatedly in regards to this but everyone forgets to mention that scientists are in disagreement about whether it’s truly going to continue weakening.

I’ve seen several scientists who have said that the field is actually stronger than it’s usual average and that there is no sign that the poles are about to flip.

In fact a new study just came out around two months ago suggesting that the South Atlantic Anomaly does not indicate that the field is weakening and may be about to strengthen again.

This is not even that new of an idea as some have suggested that the anomaly has been there for close to a million years and indicates nothing 

Now I am not saying who is right or wrong but I see many who are obsessively worried about CMEs bring this up without going into the fact that it may not be the case.

Especially considering that the solar experts who are concerned about CMEs never mention this. On that note, we have to remember that most experts who are solar physicists who work with NOAA and the power grid do not believe in the apocalyptic scenario 

The old studies suggesting permanent damage of the transformers have been largely discredited. Because of the short amount of time that the currents from a CME last, it would most likely cause voltage instability in the vast majority of transformers.

Granted voltage instability would still be a disruptive event as these experts say but not the end of civilization event some make it out to be.

There may be some cases of transformers suffering physical damage but most likely will not be in the majority of cases. Not to mention that not every state will be affected the same. Some would still have a grid that is relatively intact so keep that in mind 

So hope that provides some perspective 

 

I'm fully aware of all of that, so I can't say that provides any new perspective. I also find it somewhat odd to use the phrase "obsessively worried" in this context when that's an attitude I've been explicitly distancing myself from. Most people I'm aware of who discuss these matters are rarely anything I would ever call "obsessively worried" either, so it strikes me as a very peculiar choice of words.

As for the magnetic field, scientists wisely tend to be cautious in drawing conclusions, and as such it's only natural to be open to the notion that the weakening trend is indeed just a negligible movement in a larger pattern, but it's equally wise to consider the actual observed movement as well, and think about what it would mean if such a trend were to continue.

With regards to the Solar experts working for NOAA and with the power grid, they will of course be equally prudent in their forecasts and predictions, and as I've said several times already, such a scenario is indeed quite unlikely. However, in the event that we would indeed be hit face-on with a large CME, possibly under somewhat similar circumstances as in the Carrington Event, I believe even they would admit that it could pose some serious problems.

When it comes to what I said about transformers, I wasn't really talking about any specific old studies, I was primarily talking about the principles by which they operate, as well as the empirical evidence we have for the fact that they are indeed among the most sensitive parts of the grid when Solar storms are raging. Even the previously mentioned 2003 Solar storm had a significant impact on grids, blowing out numerous transformers, including transformers in South Africa, 60 degrees from the pole at 30 degrees south, and causing system-wide blackouts in Sweden.

Once again, I'm not telling people to go around actively worrying about this scenario at all, only to keep in the back of their minds that it is a real possibility. Even just having thought about it for a few minutes and being familiar with it can make a difference if it ever were to occur, just as it would for other types of natural disasters.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[Newbie]

20 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Well, I've stated many times throughout the thread that it's certainly nothing to have crippling anxiety over, but it's a vulnerability in a system most people relies on this day that is quite different from the destruction caused by most natural disasters, since they at least tend to be more localized. You could of course blow up strategic points of the grid and achieve the same results, but that's not really the point.

It's not ultimately about recommending that people go off grid, but rather that people should be aware of how much they rely on it, and at the very least consider its possible vulnerabilities when making choices, such as e.g. choices to rely more on the grid or less on the grid.

And yes, the magnetic field weakening is certainly nothing new in terms of geological time, pole reversals have indeed been found to have occurred myriad times in the deep past, although there's still raging debate regarding how quickly such reversals generally occur. What's more "alarming" about the current trend is rather precisely what you say, namely that it's done a good job of protecting us for as long as we've known, probably for as long as civilization has existed if we are to go by previous estimates of how often such occurs, and yet the current weakening has been observed for at least 150-200 years now, and even seems to be accelerating somewhat.

What I'm suggesting is essentially not to break down in fear, but at the very least to not nonchalantly dismiss it out of hand, because in my view that would be more like building your home at the base of an active volcano or right on the banks of a large river that floods yearly.

PB You have made your point well. Some people will heed warnings and act, others will bury their heads in the sand. It's symptomatic of the human condition. However I don't believe anyone here has been dismissive about such an event.

N.

[Archmonoth]

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

I don't think it has to do with the "mystique" at all, but rather that the destruction that such an event could bring would be radically different from most other natural disasters.

I don't think so, first off it wouldn't be global, since only 1 side would be exposed. 

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

Also, as I've mentioned in a couple of posts in this thread already, Earth's magnetic field has been steadily declining for a long time now, and shows no sign of stopping. This means less protection not just in the event of a large CME, but also for smaller ones and certain other types of activity, such as cosmic radiation.

Equating the magnetic sphere decrease to possible catastrophe takes a few steps to get there. The decrease is within "normal" limits, and nothing to be concerned with. 

 

Some of the changes are due to the hysteresis of magnetic fields, since they wander and change over time. Again, variance in the field isn't a sign of imminent collapse. 

Earth's Inconstant Magnetic Field | Science Mission Directorate (nasa.gov)

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

As for the people maintaining the grids being prepared, I strongly doubt that the grid is prepared for exceptional CMEs.

You can hypothetically say anything about an unknown cosmic event. This is not a grounded perspective (pun intended).

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

 I've described above the vulnerability of large transformers in particular, and how they could prove to be very difficult to replace under such circumstances, and in the worst cases you could very well end up with a positive feedback loop where the problem just gets worse and worse with time as the lack of a proper grid makes it harder to maintain the other parts of it too, to the point where the entire thing unravels.

Again, following the hypothetical can lead anywhere you want. What if there was a war, and a flood, and an earthquake, and famine! Imagine the catastrophe. There is no limit to the hypothetical, so each step gets further from a grounded perspective. 

 

Of course everything could positive feedback loop into oblivion, but a CME, even if Earth directed would only cripple (in the short term) 1 side of the Earth. 

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

People tend to not appreciate how the current grid isn't something you can replace like you do a toothbrush, but something that has essentially "grown" in an organic fashion over the course of the past century or so.

There are power lines, infrastructure and such replaced and upgraded all the time. 

On 8/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

 Maybe that's stretching the analogy too far, but I'm sure you see my point, and that it's not necessarily always as simple as thinking that you can always just replace some parts and that things will be fine and go "back to normal".

That's exactly what has happens when flares cause outages, or storms, or floods, or earthquakes, or war, or fires. People migrate, rebuild, and replace. 

 

[Bedreamon]

I mean... it's certainly possible, but I'm not exactly sure how possible percentage-wise. The Wikipedia page on coronal mass ejections has links to a scientific study from 2012 saying 12% per decade and another paper from 2019 made using Weibull distribution saying 0.46% to 1.88%. As for who's right, that's anybody's guess in my opinion.