Why are we Kp 5 today ?

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

I thought it was supposed to be Kp 4 max for monday, is something wrong happening ? 

[Marcel de Bont]

Looks like a stronger than expected coronal hole solar wind stream

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 uren geleden, Mogh, Lord of Blood zei:

I thought it was supposed to be Kp 4 max for monday, is something wrong happening ? 

Kp predictions are never 100% correct, a bit like in weather where the forecaster said it wouldn't rain but it did. This happens a lot of times and it's normal. Why you ask? Well between the Sun and Earth is a lot of space and the first satellite to measure the solar wind and IMF parameters is only at 1,5 million kilometers away from Earth which is just in the last hour before it arrives at Earth that we'll know what the conditions can become in space weather. If we would have satellites much closer to the Sun we would be able to make predictions better, but that is not possible. So with coronal holes, most of the times they'll look at what the coronal hole did in the previous rotation, but coronal holes change shapes so the resulting parameters can change as well.