G1 on 21 July, real?

[oemSpace]

Referring to following link, I would like to know on whether G1 is real or not, since there is nothing under wsa-enlil.

Does anyone have any suggestions?
Thanks in advance

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

            Jul 19     Jul 20     Jul 21
00-03UT        3          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          2          3     
06-09UT        5 (G1)     2          3     
09-12UT        4          2          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          4     
21-00UT        2          4          4  

[Bry]

coronal hole..?

[Sunshine]

2 hours ago, Bry said:

coronal hole..?

That's what I believe too, however wasn't eta for solar wind from it pushed back one day and is expected for 22./23. now?

[Bry]

"

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 20-Jul 22 2022

            Jul 20     Jul 21     Jul 22
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          3          3     
06-09UT        4          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          2          3     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        4          4          4     
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on 15 Jul combined with a
CH HSS (-) that arrives as early as 21 Jul is likely to produce isolated
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on 21-22 Jul.

"

This makes me think the coronal hole is expected to combine with the cme that just happened and hit sooner than 7/22-23.

Crazy to see 4 G1 events crammed into predictions for the next 3 days from this activity..

[Sam Warfel]

I agree, I think today's G1 was due to the CME arriving earlier than expected, but the CH HSS has yet to arrive, meaning we probably will have more storming.

So yes, the prediction is "real" if by that you mean credible.

[oemSpace]

3 hours ago, Orneno said:

I agree, I think today's G1 was due to the CME arriving earlier than expected, but the CH HSS has yet to arrive, meaning we probably will have more storming.

So yes, the prediction is "real" if by that you mean credible.

If prediction G1 is real, then wsa-enlil is not updated for this event, correct?

so the most updated information is from following link, correct?

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Moon is under Third Quarter at this moment, I would like to know on which moon phase has higher chance for aurora.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

[Sam Warfel]

12 hours ago, oemSpace said:

If prediction G1 is real, then wsa-enlil is not updated for this event, correct?

Where are you getting your Wsa-enlil runs?

12 hours ago, oemSpace said:

Moon is under Third Quarter at this moment, I would like to know on which moon phase has higher chance for aurora.

The moon does not affect the aurora at all, other than dim aurora are harder to see when the moon is bright. 

[oemSpace]

22 hours ago, Orneno said:

Where are you getting your Wsa-enlil runs?

The moon does not affect the aurora at all, other than dim aurora are harder to see when the moon is bright. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)