G1 storm, G2 (Kp6) chance!

[MinYoongi]

Such a shame its daytime and also summer in northern europe. night does not get dark enough really for aurora atm, but still excited that the arriving storm is stronger than expected  

Edited July 7, 2022 by Orneno

[oemSpace]

Referring to following link, there is a G1 event for today, but I don't see anything under WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction.

Would it be updated issue under WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction?

Does anyone have any suggestions?
Thanks in advance

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 07-Jul 09 2022

            Jul 07     Jul 08     Jul 09
00-03UT        0          3          2     
03-06UT        1          2          1     
06-09UT        2          3          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          1     
15-18UT        4          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          1    

[Sam Warfel]

42 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Referring to following link, there is a G1 event for today, but I don't see anything under WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction.

Would it be updated issue under WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction?

Does anyone have any suggestions?
Thanks in advance

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 07-Jul 09 2022

            Jul 07     Jul 08     Jul 09
00-03UT        0          3          2     
03-06UT        1          2          1     
06-09UT        2          3          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          1     
15-18UT        4          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          1    

Well, there’s a G1 happening right now, and it may be a G2 as well!

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Such a shame its daytime and also summer in northern europe. night does not get dark enough really for aurora atm, but still excited that the arriving storm is stronger than expected  

Yeah, I don’t think it will stick around all the while until North American nightfall 😭

[Sam Warfel]

This is the strongest Bz I’ve seen in a long time, maybe ever 

[mozy]

32 minutes ago, Orneno said:

This is the strongest Bz I’ve seen in a long time, maybe ever 

The bz reached -23.82 back in March during the G2 storm. 

You sure you're just not forgetting that one? 😎

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2022/03/13/aurora.html

[Sam Warfel]

4 hours ago, mozy said:

The bz reached -23.82 back in March during the G2 storm. 

You sure you're just not forgetting that one? 😎

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2022/03/13/aurora.html

Yeah, but it didn’t stay down as long as today. When I said “strong” I meant a combination of actual field strength and duration, cause for example a spike to -30 that only lasted half an hour would not actually kick up that much Aurora, so wouldn’t really be as strong as -10 for 6 hours, even though the number is larger in magnitude. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

What did I miss and why?

[oemSpace]

2 hours ago, Orneno said:

Yeah, but it didn’t stay down as long as today. When I said “strong” I meant a combination of actual field strength and duration, cause for example a spike to -30 that only lasted half an hour would not actually kick up that much Aurora, so wouldn’t really be as strong as -10 for 6 hours, even though the number is larger in magnitude. 

If 30 minutes for G1 is too short, usually, how long should G1 last for Aurora?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

[Isatsuki San]

geomathenic storm g1 right now, but it seems that it did not come alone, it seems that the solar wind is slightly increasing its speed and the interpertary field its strength reaches 20? Could it be that this time we will have a g2 geomatenic storm?

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

geomathenic storm g1 right now, but it seems that it did not come alone, it seems that the solar wind is slightly increasing its speed and the interpertary field its strength reaches 20? Could it be that this time we will have a g2 geomatenic storm?

Doubt it, the Bz has been weakening for hours and is all the way up to -4, far less than it was earlier that triggered this storm 

[Newbie]

Ok, this increase in GM activity is from a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream, that has arrived later than expected. There was a chance it might have gone to G2 but appears for now to be abating. These disturbances don't often pass G1 but it's not impossible. 

They call her Lady Aurora in Scandanavia. She can appear and disappear at the drop of a hat. Arrive unexpectedly or turn up late. Present her full display or give you hardly anything. Yet we are all still drawn to her.

Local midnight is the best time to see her.

Newbie

Edited July 8, 2022 by Newbie

[mozy]

9 hours ago, Newbie said:

Ok, this increase in GM activity is from a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream, that has arrived later than expected. There was a chance it might have gone to G2 but appears for now to be abating. These disturbances don't often pass G1 but it's not impossible. 

Look at Tamitha Skov's posts, it was actually a stealthy CME that was the actual cause for this event, along with the coronal hole stream probably.

Edited July 8, 2022 by mozy

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Look at Tamitha Skov's posts, it was actually a stealthy CME that was the actual cause for this event, along with the coronal hole stream probably.

Good pick up Mozy. They've done a good job of rattling Earth's magnetic field. Did you get to see anything?

N.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Newbie

[mozy]

45 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Good pick up Mozy. They've done a good job of rattling Earth's magnetic field. Did you get to see anything?

N.

Nah, way too bright out here during summer, just not possible, sun never really sets

[Sam Warfel]

It was maybe a CME within/next to a CIR. It didn’t look exactly like either one

[Newbie]

8 hours ago, Orneno said:

It was maybe a CME within/next to a CIR. It didn’t look exactly like either one

Hi Orneno SWPC reported a CME along with the late arrival of CHHSS.

Each way bet?

N.

9 hours ago, mozy said:

Nah, way too bright out here during summer, just not possible, sun never really sets

No it doesn't... but how exciting living in Sweden hey, so close to the action.  Mind you I travelled all the way up to Abisko and saw nothing. The cloudless lake Torneträsk, was cloudy!

[WildWill]

On 7/7/2022 at 4:38 PM, Solarflaretracker200 said:

What did I miss and why?

A long term M class flare with a CME which is supposed to (possibly) arrive at L1 in 3 days! At least I believe that’s the scoop! Anyone, please correct me if I’m wrong.

why? I guess because you weren’t paying attention! 😎

Too busy battling those Aliens? Beware, they may try to sneak up on you using the CME as cover!
 

Good Hunting!

W & A

Edited July 9, 2022 by WildWill

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

A long term M class flare with a CME which is supposed to (possibly) arrive at L1 in 3 days! At least I believe that’s the scoop! Anyone, please correct me if I’m wrong

The flare had a faint partial halo, so yea we can expect to see a bit of CME. However, the part directed our way looked very weak, G1 at most. 

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

The flare had a faint partial halo, so yea we can expect to see a bit of CME. However, the part directed our way looked very weak, G1 at most. 

As we all know, weak is a very relative term…

if you have a front row seat, it doesn’t matter whether it’s a 5 MTon or 50 MTon bomb! lol.

Seriously though, when I sit down and think about all that energy, it’s really incomprehensible, in real terms. It one thing (for me) to look at numbers, quite another to sit down and really think about just how big it is. Even if it comes this way, only a tiny piece of it will strike the earth… a very small part.

I have just really been amazed with the sun over the last year. With the filters and tools available to the amateur enthusiast astronomer these days, it’s really opened a whole new frontier to explore. (Not to mention the advances in sensors and instruments in orbit, available not only to researchers, but to amateurs also. 
 

The sun is the most exciting object in the sky. It’s different every time I look at it, even if it’s only been an hour or two! I have a couple of filters now. I had purchased what was supposed to be 0.5A H-a - but in reality it was 5A, not gonna see the chromosphere with that. They didn’t give me a hard time returning it. So, now I am buying another H-a filter as well as a Ca K-line filter. H-a (Hydrogen Alpha spectral emission line (656.28nm) is really where the action is. I’m stoked. 

There is nothing else you can look at through a telescope that is always changing. I realize I’m not saying anything y’all don’t already know, but for me, when you sit down and really think about just what is happening and imagine the scale on the SDO far uv images - just so incredible to me.

I am truly overwhelmed by the glory of God. 

On a more positive note, I might not be online as much with my eye stuck on an eyepiece from sun up to sun down! lol.I’m sure that will improve the quality of the forums! 
 

L & A