Activity at same location over several rotations

[3gMike]

I have felt for some time that certain areas of the sun seem more likely to produce sunspots than others. There have been a number of discussions in various topics which have touched on this subject. Discussions around AR3014 have led me to look in more detail at the farside maps. It is important to recognise that these maps represent areas of Strong Activity, and do not necessarily relate directly to a particular sunspot / Active Region. I prefer to identify the farside patches as zones in order to avoid any confusion with Active Regions identified on the earthside. One zone in particular has spanned approximately 60 degrees of longitude on the last four rotations, variously identified on the plots below as FS_2022_017, FS_2022_026, FS_2022_036 and FS_2022_045. It is clear from the plots that this region has changed shape and the centre coordinates have shifted from around Carrington 90 to Carrington 120 over the whole period. This zone has at times supported multiple Active Regions and it seems reasonable to say that AR3014 (Carr 104, Lat 22) and AR3032 (Carr 106, Lat 20) could be the same sunspot, but at the same time we had AR3030 (Carr 118, Lat 18). Should that be considered two separate spots, or a development of the original AR3014 ? It will be interesting to see what Active Regions we see earthside in the next week or so.

I note that these maps also show magnetic activity (not necessarily sunspots) on the earthside. We can see that there is a propensity for activity to arise at similar locations for each rotation. For example Carrington 240, Lat -20 to -30, or Carrington 325?, Lat -15

The two diagonals which are very obvious on the earthside in the map for April have produced little in the way of sunspots, and appear to be fading as time progresses, but we can still see them on the current HMI magnetogram.

All of this suggests to me that there are centres of activity which remain fairly stable over periods of months, and provide the source for the majority of sunspots. Can we identify what it is that causes these magnetically organised areas to persist while the majority of the disk is inactive?

[Archmonoth]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Can we identify what it is that causes these magnetically organised areas to persist while the majority of the disk is inactive?

I can't identify, but I can speculate that the area is the side of the Sun conserving the momentum of the Sun. This would be like the side of the car door when you go around a turn, the forcing from the differences in rotation causes turbulence. This is just my speculation, and I don't have a method to model this yet. 

[3gMike]

17 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

I can't identify, but I can speculate that the area is the side of the Sun conserving the momentum of the Sun. This would be like the side of the car door when you go around a turn, the forcing from the differences in rotation causes turbulence. This is just my speculation, and I don't have a method to model this yet. 

I'm not sure that it relates to a particular side of the sun. On the basis of a quick assessment of the images above I would suggest that there appears to be repeating patterns at (roughly) 10, 90 to 120, 240 and 320 degrees longitude.

[Mpgoggin]

Perhaps due to special deep combustion events that lead to a venting of sorts? Once a vent is created, it would offer a low resistance pathway for future events, hanging on like a vortex of sorts and sustaining itself until a significant change in the internal mechanisms occurs.

[3gMike]

11 hours ago, Mpgoggin said:

Perhaps due to special deep combustion events that lead to a venting of sorts? Once a vent is created, it would offer a low resistance pathway for future events, hanging on like a vortex of sorts and sustaining itself until a significant change in the internal mechanisms occurs.

I do not know. I would like to understand a bit more about how the images represent magnetic configuration at different levels in the Sun. I think it may help to compare these images with the Synoptic maps.

I found this description of how HMI works http://hmi.stanford.edu/Description/hmi-overview/hmi-overview.html It is interesting but I would still like to understand a bit more.

[MinYoongi]

By the way, the fast CME from 30. (2000KMS) is it from filaments or from that region possible? Its southward i guess so maybe another region ..

[Newbie]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

By the way, the fast CME from 30. (2000KMS) is it from filaments or from that region possible? Its southward i guess so maybe another region ..

FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: The Earthside of the sun is quiet. The farside is not. Yesterday, an explosion from a hidden sunspot hurled a partial halo CME into space:

The storm cloud will not hit Earth; it is traveling almost directly away from us. The active sunspot should turn to face Earth about 10 days from now when it completes its farside transit. (Courtesy Spaceweather.com)

This the one you were referring to Min?

N.

 

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

By the way, the fast CME from 30. (2000KMS) is it from filaments or from that region possible? Its southward i guess so maybe another region ..

Possibly from that region or, maybe more likely, from the old AR3038

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Possibly from that region or, maybe more likely, from the old AR3038

When is that due to return?

4 hours ago, Newbie said:

FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: The Earthside of the sun is quiet. The farside is not. Yesterday, an explosion from a hidden sunspot hurled a partial halo CME into space:

The storm cloud will not hit Earth; it is traveling almost directly away from us. The active sunspot should turn to face Earth about 10 days from now when it completes its farside transit. (Courtesy Spaceweather.com)

This the one you were referring to Min?

N.

 

I dont know. I mean the speedy one on the 30th (cactus CME list) around 2000kms.

 

[3gMike]

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

When is that due to return?

10th July

Perhaps we could continue discussion about CMEs elsewhere. This thread was really intended to explore why we get repeated activity in the same locations.

Thanks.

[3gMike]

This plot obtained from WSO http://wso.stanford.edu/ suggests that magnetic cell sizes are quite large and this may limit the number of active longitudes.

I need to understand why this plot looks so different to the Synoptic Maps we see each day, and also take a look at earlier plots to see how these cells shift over time.

[WildWill]

Howdy 3g!

Happy “Give the Colonies Away Day”, mate!

I previously mentioned I had noticed the same pattern. Now, it would seem that this is luring, but the northern and Southern Hemispheres are active on opposite sides of the sun! We also had all those magnetic “lines”:angling across the quiet side of the northern hemisphere. They seem to be fading. Aside from Patrick’s “New Physics”, there’s got to be something driving this stuff…

The stuff in  the north looks impressive (right now). The flare vid was awesome! 
 

The plasma of a sunspot is “cooler” and this cooler plasma is trapped at the surface, the heat builds up from below and flares jet out any gaps on the surface to radiate heat away from the sun. If that’s not enough to regain a steady state equilibrium, then the heat continues to build underneath until it explodes in a massive flare, ejecting massive amounts of hot plasma into space! Not unlike a volcano with a huge magma chamber below, don’t ya think. Somewhat like that massive volcano they call Yellowstone…  

Thats my story and I’m sticking with it!😎

WW

 

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by WildWill

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, WildWill said:

Howdy 3g!

Happy “Give the Colonies Away Day”, mate!

I previously mentioned I had noticed the same pattern. Now, it would seem that this is luring, but the northern and Southern Hemispheres are active on opposite sides of the sun! We also had all those magnetic “lines”:angling across the quiet side of the northern hemisphere. They seem to be fading. Aside from Patrick’s “New Physics”, there’s got to be something driving this stuff…

The stuff in  the north looks impressive (right now). The flare vid was awesome! 
 

The plasma of a sunspot is “cooler” and this cooler plasma is trapped at the surface, the heat builds up from below and flares jet out any gaps on the surface to radiate heat away from the sun. If that’s not enough to regain a steady state equilibrium, then the heat continues to build underneath until it explodes in a massive flare, ejecting massive amounts of hot plasma into space! Not unlike a volcano with a huge magma chamber below, don’t ya think. Somewhat like that massive volcano they call Yellowstone…  

Thats my story and I’m sticking with it!

WW

 

 

Hi Wild Will . Happy 4th July!

If you are up for a 'deep-dive' into Plasma Physics related to the Solar System you might want to download this from National Academy of Science https://nap.nationalacademies.org/download/10993

[WildWill]

On 7/3/2022 at 1:05 PM, 3gMike said:

This plot obtained from WSO http://wso.stanford.edu/ suggests that magnetic cell sizes are quite large and this may limit the number of active longitudes.

I need to understand why this plot looks so different to the Synoptic Maps we see each day, and also take a look at earlier plots to see how these cells shift over time.

Perhaps this is worth looking at again to see what’s changed and what hasn’t… 

[3gMike]

On 7/10/2022 at 12:43 AM, WildWill said:

Perhaps this is worth looking at again to see what’s changed and what hasn’t… 

I agree. I've found an archive stored at WSO (Wilcox Solar Observatory) that allows just that.

For purposes of discussion, and to keep data manageable I will just post the last seven rotations.

I find two areas of particular interest. Firstly, the region between about 30 and 120 carrington longitude, in the Northern hemisphere. This is the large area where we have seen recurrent activity over several rotations. It has developed significantly over the period, but has now split into two smaller areas. I wonder what that means for activity in that area. Secondly, it is interesting to note the large area of low activity between about 210 and 310 carrington, also in the northern hemisphere.

The southern hemisphere seems to be slightly more organised and has had something like seven active regions  for most of the period.

[Bry]

On 7/3/2022 at 11:05 AM, 3gMike said:

This plot obtained from WSO http://wso.stanford.edu/ suggests that magnetic cell sizes are quite large and this may limit the number of active longitudes.

Super cool to see how magnetic cell size affects active longitude region growth potential. Would a smaller magnetic cell size contribute to more active regions?

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I find two areas of particular interest. Firstly, the region between about 30 and 120 carrington longitude, in the Northern hemisphere. This is the large area where we have seen recurrent activity over several rotations. It has developed significantly over the period, but has now split into two smaller areas. I wonder what that means for activity in that area.

I was wondering how the two active carrington longitudes that Scott graphed compare with the ones you have graphed and from WSO (below)

The most active regions recently seem  to be 140 and 240 according to scotts chart, but I'm not sure if its accounting for both hemispheres.

How does that compare with the active regions you are observing at longitudes 30 and 120?

 

On 7/3/2022 at 8:08 PM, WildWill said:

Now, it would seem that this is luring, but the northern and Southern Hemispheres are active on opposite sides of the sun!

**I didn't realize the activity was on opposite sides of the sun and hemispheres, but I see how far longitude 140 is from 240. Scott seems to mention above the longitude graph that the hemispheric activity is pretty balanced, so I'm confused if this is just due to lower amounts of activity and will even out as solar cycle picks up.

**Here are some cool graphs depicting flare position and active regions latitudinally.

Awesome to see so many minds working on the same question!

[Bry]

I forgot about scotts other plot showing solar hemispheric activity looking pretty balanced over a couple more solar cycles

I didn't realize till this that solar activity on the sun mimics our jet stream here on earth with his rossby wave description, very cool!

However, he seems to suggest there hasn't been an active solar "jetstream" in the last two solar cycles, and thus less X flares.

I see how hard it is to study these trends in more solar cycles if we only have historical data since the digital era to capture solar activity quantitatively (flares, filaments, cmes, coronal holes, etc.). Maybe ice core data can fill in the past gaps.

** Maybe y'all have already taken a look at this awesomely relevant article from 2020,

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8b63

where the role of the suns spin affects its magnetic fluid dynamics and impacts the future location and activity of surface disturbances. They seem to suggest active region migrate or drift over many solar rotations, not entirely fixed to a particular longitude. Sort of like our storms on earth, which we don't track or identify as the same storm when it returns usually.

 

**

Very cool how similar fluid dynamics on earth are to the suns (magnetohydrodynamics) for determining future locations of surface disturbances dependent upon the greatest pressure gradients! I wonder what height of solar wind speed would be equivalent to our earths jet stream?

I definitely look at wind speeds in the jet stream for earth weather (30-12km) whenever weather shifts significantly or I can't figure out what long term trends are going on inside our seasons. Its interesting how our strongest jet stream (30km) on earth alternates between the north and south hemispheres between our winter and summer seasons in our year and how that affects storm where a storm forms... I wonder if there is a similar seasonality alternating rossby waves or the "solar jet stream" activity between the hemispheres, and how that affects the ever present equatorial solar and earth "jet-stream" creating and equivalent of our constant retrograde "easterlies" or "trade winds". Also when the earths jet stream switches between the hemispheres around equinox that seems to be the time with the most energy transferred (fall and spring). I imagine the equivalent "solar equinoxes" or time most energy transfer would be before and after the solar maximum.

regarding magnetic cell size and drift..

On 7/3/2022 at 11:05 AM, 3gMike said:

This plot obtained from WSO http://wso.stanford.edu/ suggests that magnetic cell sizes are quite large and this may limit the number of active longitudes.

I need to understand why this plot looks so different to the Synoptic Maps we see each day, and also take a look at earlier plots to see how these cells shift over time.

  I was wondering if magnetic cell size (being large right now) is influenced by solar jet stream being higher latitudinally from the equator and influencing magnetic re-connection loops to be bigger? And as the active regions get towards the equator the magnetic field cells get smaller and allow for more active regions to form?

 

[3gMike]

Rather frustratingly, WSO have not updated their website since the end of August. That has made it difficult to keep track of development in the magnetic fields.

Hopefully WSO will be back on line before too long. In the meantime I have been trying to use GONG and JSOC to get some idea of going on.

I've just put together an image showing status at last WSO report (Carrington Rotation 2260) compared with GONG and JSOC images for today - Carrington Rotation 2262. I modified the JSOC image to get an alignment of Carrington longitudes for all charts. There does seem to be reasonable correlation between GONG and JSOC, although the region around longitude 90 in the southern hemisphere is not currently showing on JSOC. The overall impression is one of limited activity, with only a few regions showing strong fields.

It seems clear that the Northern Hemisphere remains quiet in Longitudes 180 to 360, with the Southern hemisphere now also being fairly quiet in a similar range - although we will hopefully see some activity from the relatively strong region(s), centred on longitude 210 in the southern hemisphere, over the next couple of days.