MinYoongi Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 So, according to this Tweet and Nasa's Enlil Forecast, yesterday's filament eruption should / could arrive sunday. Ive seen the model run and it looks okay, the tweet said KP5 cant be ruled out but no greater storming should happen. (Sorry aurora watchers from middle latitudes ) But the Nasa Enlil Model suggests Kp8 ? Can someone tell me more about that? Is that Model sensitive to some parameters or faulty? or because of the Clock Angle? (can someone explain this too?) also i will link the Enlil run here : Have fun to all high latitude aurora watchers 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: So, according to this Tweet and Nasa's Enlil Forecast, yesterday's filament eruption should / could arrive sunday. Ive seen the model run and it looks okay, the tweet said KP5 cant be ruled out but no greater storming should happen. (Sorry aurora watchers from middle latitudes ) But the Nasa Enlil Model suggests Kp8 ? Can someone tell me more about that? Is that Model sensitive to some parameters or faulty? or because of the Clock Angle? (can someone explain this too?) also i will link the Enlil run here : Have fun to all high latitude aurora watchers Where did the filament eruption come from? I didn’t see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Orneno said: Where did the filament eruption come from? I didn’t see anything https://twitter.com/spacewxwatch/status/1535328938876370944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 According to SolarSoft all flares came from 89ºE limb locations and were not attributed to FE's. It would be so unlikely to get Kp 8 from a FE. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Newbie said: According to SolarSoft all flares came from 89ºE limb locations and were not attributed to FE's. It would be so unlikely to get Kp 8 from a FE. N. yup would take that with a grain of salt too. but we still maybe have a lil something arrive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yup would take that with a grain of salt too. but we still maybe have a lil something arrive! I'm not saying there won't be a 'Little something'. How about posting a pic of your FE? The link above provides a location and not much else, no mention of a FE (have I missed something?) Edited June 11, 2022 by Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Newbie said: I'm not saying there won't be a 'Little something'. How about posting a pic of your FE? The link above provides a location and not much else, no mention of a FE (have I missed something?) Check the comments of the tweet.. Im on Mobile, cant provide imagery now. Will do once im awake again. (its 4 am and im sleepy 😛 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: https://twitter.com/spacewxwatch/status/1535328938876370944 Looks awfully darn faint to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Looks awfully darn faint to me Yup. buuut Kp5 is in the cards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: Yup. buuut Kp5 is in the cards! Hey I’ll take anything at this point, after the Grand Solar Minimum of 2022 😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Orneno said: Hey I’ll take anything at this point, after the Grand Solar Minimum of 2022 😂 Hah! That's what it felt like. Radio this week has been challenging and less fun than usual. As you've probably surmised from my various comments, shortwave radio aficionados prefer a high level of ionization of the F-Layer of the ionosphere along with the lowest possible Kp index. That's ideal. When the UV and X radiation dropped a few days ago it brought magnetic field stability and low Kp indices. Great. But then the ionization of the F Layer, which had become quite high due to the sustained SFI of 160, faded down and down to where propagation was very poor. In some cases certain forms of propagation that are normally reliable, even at solar minimum, became poor and started exhibiting odd behaviors like "one way skip". Normally, when you have a propagation path between two points on Earth, the propagation is roughly the same in both directions. If I hear you loudly, it's almost certain you'll also hear me. One-way-skip is a poorly understood phenomenon where signals are much stronger in one direction than the opposite direction. This makes operating challenging and frustrating. Not fun. It's all part of the game though and one-way-skip is fortunately fairly rare, but it happened pronouncedly this week as the ionization levels faded. I suspect that this is a clue to understanding what causes one way skip, but I'm not an ionosphere physicist. I dunno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 11 hours ago, Orneno said: Hey I’ll take anything at this point, after the Grand Solar Minimum of 2022 😂 Grand solar minimum of 2022? Our very first day with a spotless face on the sun does not quite make for a “grand solar minimum” IMNSHO… A watched pot never boils! The NE limb is showing something bright right around the limb! maybe a super spotted Sunday! And we have a Saharan dust cloud moving in which will reduce viewing conditions… Alex & O’Riley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, WildWill said: Grand solar minimum of 2022? Our very first day with a spotless face on the sun does not quite make for a “grand solar minimum” IMNSHO Maybe not, but the sun’s been really boring for several months now 😆 38 minutes ago, WildWill said: And we have a Saharan dust cloud moving in which will reduce viewing conditions… Sounds like a European problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Orneno said: Maybe not, but the sun’s been really boring for several months now 😆 Sounds like a European problem It has kinda seemed to me that it has gone in fits and spurts… one day chicken, feathers the next… it like it has been all spotted up and then they all depart and nothing comes around the limb for a while… I’m new at sun worshiping, but it’s been interesting the last couple of months… Actually, I’m in S Texas, you can see the dust cloud stretching across the Atlantic and Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico right up to the Texas Coast… gonna get worse all week according to the forecast. It will also continue to put a damper on any tropical development in the inter-tropical convergence zone… It was pretty bad a couple of years ago. Doesn’t come up this far every year… Interestingly enough, (little tidbit for ya) The Amazon basin has been built up by dust delivered from the Saharan Desert for millions of years, fertilizing it and replacing sediments washed down stream. I went to the Canary Islands a couple of times, on Gran Canaria, there is a beach with sand dunes hundreds of feet high stretching inland a couple of miles from the water… It can be a long, difficult walk,particularly when you are carrying a cooler, umbrella, beach chairs, towels and my ex’s beach bags… lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) On 6/11/2022 at 2:03 AM, KW2P said: In some cases certain forms of propagation that are normally reliable, even at solar minimum, became poor and started exhibiting odd behaviors like "one way skip". Normally, when you have a propagation path between two points on Earth, the propagation is roughly the same in both directions. If I hear you loudly, it's almost certain you'll also hear me. One-way-skip is a poorly understood phenomenon where signals are much stronger in one direction than the opposite direction. This makes operating challenging and frustrating. Not fun. It's all part of the game though and one-way-skip is fortunately fairly rare, but it happened pronouncedly this week as the ionization levels faded. I suspect that this is a clue to understanding what causes one way skip, but I'm not an ionosphere physicist. I dunno. My marginally educated guess is that a highly dynamic ionosphere could create complex, assymetric refractive interfaces from numerous scintillation regions that split the transmitted radio wave into multiple paths that are either divergent or convergent or become phase shifted and combine constructively into strong signals or destructively into weaker signals. One propagation direction may be constructive; the opposite direction may be destructive. A change in the polarization of the radio wave (elliptical, horizontal, vertical) might also occur across a complex ionospheric interface and produce a polarization at the receive antenna it is not optimally designed for. Or, it could be sand. Edited June 12, 2022 by Drax Spacex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: My marginally educated guess is that a highly dynamic ionosphere could create complex, assymetric refractive interfaces from numerous scintillation regions that split the transmitted radio wave into multiple paths that become phase shifted which can converge constructively into strong signals or converge destructively into weaker signals. One propagation direction may be constructive; the other direction may be destructive. A change in the polarization of the radio wave (elliptical, horizontal, vertical) might also occur across a complex ionospheric interface and yield a radio wave polarization the receiving antenna may not be optimally designed for. Yeah, my uneducated guess is along similar lines: the de-ionizaton is uneven, perhaps small layers form, creating some kind of birefringence effect(s) which sounds much like what you're proposing. Polarization does get rotated by the ionosphere. The ionosphere has been observed to frequently "prefer" horizontal polarization. If you transmit a vertically polarized signal, it arrives horizontally polarized. Weird. This one-way-skip phenomenon is not subtle when it happens. The difference in signal strength between the forward and reverse paths can be on the order of 30 and 40 dB, so 10,000 to 1. This is huge and much larger than polarization alone can explain. However, destructive interference as you suggest could create such a large difference. We've long known that the F-layer splits into two layers during the daytime, reverting to a single layer at night, so I wonder if it's possible there are more layers under the right conditions. But I'm just hypothesizing. Now June 12 0740z. I guess we're waiting to get whacked by this CME. 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 This must be the CME! Only KP2 so far 😂 Gotta wait for it to update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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