Quilloz Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 I noticed an influx of people on the internet (not just YouTube) mention that we're about to enter a GSM similar to the Maunder Minimum from the 1600s. Does this have any kernel of truth, or is this a byproduct of the whole "The sun is the reason Earth's climate changes" hypothesis that is popular with the YouTube solar community? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 So this one's new to me, but looking into it briefly I picked up that the Maunder Minimum was apparently preceeded by unusually long solar cycles. This cycle appears to be developing faster (or stronger, hard to tell) than predicted, but certainly not slower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Quilloz said: I noticed an influx of people on the internet (not just YouTube) mention that we're about to enter a GSM similar to the Maunder Minimum from the 1600s. Does this have any kernel of truth, or is this a byproduct of the whole "The sun is the reason Earth's climate changes" hypothesis that is popular with the YouTube solar community? It’s unsure yet whether SC25 will be stronger than SC24 as it was previously predicted to be, but it is stronger than expected, it’s pretty safe to say we have avoided the Grand Solar Minimum some people were predicting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maurizio Marsigli Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Cycle 25 possible like the Dalton. A Maunder will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Probably not even like a Dalton, it seems to be stronger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Orneno said: Probably not even like a Dalton, it seems to be stronger than that. What do you mean? I watched Dr.Tamitha Skov's stream yesterday and she thinks it wont be an exaggerating strong cycle like 19 or something, but stronger than the official prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: What do you mean? I mean it won’t be a Dalton Minimum, it seems to at least be an average strength cycle (much higher than the extremely weak one that was predicted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Thank god this cycle isn’t a bad one. So far it’s a banger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catchmenova Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 This is a very interesting prediction on SC25 based on observed data that I believe has a sound foundation, see link below: http://spaceref.com/space-weather-2/new-sunspot-cycle-could-be-one-of-the-strongest-on-record-new-research-predicts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 hopefully SC25 is going to be as powerful as SC23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, farm24 said: hopefully SC25 is going to be as powerful as SC23 I’d sure like that, although it’s much too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Orneno said: I’d sure like that, although it’s much too early to tell only time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Catchmenova said: This is a very interesting prediction on SC25 based on observed data that I believe has a sound foundation, see link below: http://spaceref.com/space-weather-2/new-sunspot-cycle-could-be-one-of-the-strongest-on-record-new-research-predicts.html That article was written in December 2020 and predicted a maximum of 210 - 260 sunspots. A more recent article, published in February 2022 claims that the terminator occurred in Dec 2021, and on that basis predicts a maximum of 170 - 210 sunspots. https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02/25/the-termination-event-has-arrived/ In the end it is nothing more than a prediction, and it remains to be seen what will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catchmenova Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Thanks for the update 3GMike... he did mention: “We have finalized our forecast of SC25’s amplitude,” says McIntosh. “It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20.” so it seems like waiting and seeing is like predictions, smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. I Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Extrapolation of the curve gets better of course with more time, yet the range can shrink or expand at any time affecting the slope. Currently looks like an average + cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 This link shows how time between terminators is related to Maximum SSN https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y#Fig4 Note how the distribution for earlier cycles is significantly wider than the forecast. Also note that this plot refers to the earlier forecast (Dec2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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