lightpanther Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Come on sunspot. You *know* you can do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 2993/4, give us an X5!! Or a long duration X1 Please 🥺 Edited April 21, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Oh look its flaring right now And it gave up- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Isnt it perfectly earth facing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 38 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Isnt it perfectly earth facing today? Not quite, maybe one more day, especially given the Parker Spiral Edited April 21, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catchmenova Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 You only live forever once, can I just get a CME to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: Not quite, maybe one more day, especially given the Parker Spiral How long will it stay in a good position? I know the more it moves to the west the likelier solar proton storms get, but CME's effectivenes shrinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei: How long will it stay in a good position? I know the more it moves to the west the likelier solar proton storms get, but CME's effectivenes shrinks. 5-6 days (from Center to nearing western limb). It will all depend if it blows another CME. But it has to be long duration with strong coronal dimming. As always with CMEs it depends on its characteristics and distribution to be Earth directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: 5-6 days (from Center to nearing western limb). It will all depend if it blows another CME. But it has to be long duration with strong coronal dimming. As always with CMEs it depends on its characteristics and distribution to be Earth directed. Thank you. Still no synpotic map or anything, so I dont know how possible further (strong) flares are. What confuses me is all this "THe best presucutor for an X-Class is an X-Class" Talk. Some say after a Strong flare a Region needs time to "reload" (reconfigure), and most regions cant shoot back to back strong flares, others say the exact opposite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 21, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted April 21, 2022 7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Still no synpotic map or anything, so I dont know how possible further (strong) flares are. You don’t need synoptic maps. Once you learned/mastered how you can classify the magnetic classification of sunspot regions you won’t need it. The rules are pretty simple all complex regions are different and you have regions that are so complex they don’t even “pop”, other regions will be so complex they are shooting a lot of strong flares but all impulsive and other very complex regions produced strong very long duration events with huge CMEs (that indeed need to ”reload” for a next event) . There is no exact scheme for any complex region, they are pretty unpredictable in the characteristics so you just have to wait till they happen. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 17 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: You don’t need synoptic maps. Once you learned/mastered how you can classify the magnetic classification of sunspot regions you won’t need it. The rules are pretty simple all complex regions are different and you have regions that are so complex they don’t even “pop”, other regions will be so complex they are shooting a lot of strong flares but all impulsive and other very complex regions produced strong very long duration events with huge CMEs (that indeed need to ”reload” for a next event) . There is no exact scheme for any complex region, they are pretty unpredictable in the characteristics so you just have to wait till they happen. Does the size of the spot determine its potential? That is, can smaller spots produce larger flares? This has certainly been interesting to watch over that last week, and the enthusiasm here is almost contagious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 35 minutes ago, Dan T said: Does the size of the spot determine its potential? That is, can smaller spots produce larger flares? This has certainly been interesting to watch over that last week, and the enthusiasm here is almost contagious. It’s all about magnetic complexity, more than it is about size. That being said, many very complex spots are larger, but they don’t necessarily have to be large to produce strong flares, just complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: It’s all about magnetic complexity, more than it is about size. That being said, many very complex spots are larger, but they don’t necessarily have to be large to produce strong flares, just complex. what do you think about this thread? ( There are more tweets under this one, really interesting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 4 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: what do you think about this thread? ( There are more tweets under this one, really interesting) Keep the discussion about 2993 in the correct topic! the M3 was a bit eruptive but won’t be earth directed as the bulk will be above and away from earth (narrow CME) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: Keep the discussion about 2993 in the correct topic! the M3 was a bit eruptive but won’t be earth directed as the bulk will be above and away from earth (narrow CME) Im sorry. I chose the wrong topic by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 On 4/21/2022 at 12:30 PM, Orneno said: 2993/4, give us an X5!! Or a long duration X1 Please 🥺 how about a long duration X5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 That would work too, but seems awfully optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 40 minutes ago, Orneno said: That would work too, but seems awfully optimistic Is the config so bad? 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Is the config so bad? 😕 It seems to be decaying more than growing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted April 22, 2022 Author Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Still nothing I keep checking "latest CMEs." Edited April 22, 2022 by lightpanther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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