Solar Xray Pattern precedes strong X class flares

[Aetherwizard]

I have been observing solar data as a hobby since the late 1990s. One of the patterns I have observed that precedes a major X class flare is an extended bell curve in the solar x-ray data. Often, a single bell curve will precede an X class flare, but today there are three cumulative bell curves. Not all bell curves lead to an X class flare, but often they do.

It would seem that there are massive magnetic structures building up on the Sun at this time, which lead to these bell curves in solar x-ray output. With the recent far side activity taking place, this is worth watching closely.

 

[MinYoongi]

Welcome to the Forum, Aetherwizard!

 

Can you maybe explain your thesis a bit better? 

If i understand it right:

A long buildup leads to an X-Class Flare?

 

 

Those Flares are actually most likely already X-Class Flares just not picked up fully due to the Sourceregion being behind the Limb.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur geleden, Aetherwizard zei:

I have been observing solar data as a hobby since the late 1990s. One of the patterns I have observed that precedes a major X class flare is an extended bell curve in the solar x-ray data. Often, a single bell curve will precede an X class flare, but today there are three cumulative bell curves. Not all bell curves lead to an X class flare, but often they do.

It would seem that there are massive magnetic structures building up on the Sun at this time, which lead to these bell curves in solar x-ray output. With the recent far side activity taking place, this is worth watching closely.

 

Can you give examples from the past? Maybe a small file… if true, this can be published

[mozy]

I'm entrigued 😎

[abc]

2 hours ago, Aetherwizard said:

I have been observing solar data as a hobby since the late 1990s. One of the patterns I have observed that precedes a major X class flare is an extended bell curve in the solar x-ray data. Often, a single bell curve will precede an X class flare, but today there are three cumulative bell curves. Not all bell curves lead to an X class flare, but often they do.

It would seem that there are massive magnetic structures building up on the Sun at this time, which lead to these bell curves in solar x-ray output. With the recent far side activity taking place, this is worth watching closely.

 

also what do you mean by a "bell curve"

[Drax Spacex]

I think the smooth bell curves are the strong flux loops just behind east limb.  The ebbing and flowing of their average intensity happens gradually with a long time constant as seen from SDO.  More jagged plots of X-Ray flux will result when these region rotate onto the solar disk and the more dynamic AR sparking/flaring from the solar surface will be visible.

[HalfFeralHuman]

I noticed something on SDO's imagery yesterday (2022-04-14) at around 4:30-5:30. There was this change in plasma flow (magnetic reconfiguration?) that appeared to start from the top-right side of the sun, head left and circle round the whole upper hemispehere. I have no idea if it feeds into this conversation, but the size of the event surprised me, and I've a feeling it extended further out than the SDO was able to capture. AIA composite 211, 304, 171 kinda shows it.

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

I noticed something on SDO's imagery yesterday (2022-04-14) at around 4:30-5:30. There was this change in plasma flow (magnetic reconfiguration?) that appeared to start from the top-right side of the sun, head left and circle round the whole upper hemispehere. I have no idea if it feeds into this conversation, but the size of the event surprised me, and I've a feeling it extended further out than the SDO was able to capture. AIA composite 211, 304, 171 kinda shows it.

Can you maybe post a video?

[Aetherwizard]

2 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

I think the smooth bell curves are the strong flux loops just behind east limb.  The ebbing and flowing of their average intensity happens gradually with a long time constant as seen from SDO.  More jagged plots of X-Ray flux will result when these region rotate onto the solar disk and the more dynamic AR sparking/flaring from the solar surface will be visible.

Hi Drax, thanks for your input. I will admit that I had not considered that the bell curve was caused by far side activity. My interpretation has been to see this as a near side magnetic field structure building up in intensity. However, it just occurred to me that I have not seen a curve "explode." The curve would always complete and the large flare would be about 6 to 24 hours later. If the curve had been a magnetic field intensity build up as I was thinking, then there should be some exploded bell curves.

Still, the three bell curves are there, and each of them build upon the intensity level of the previous curve. This pattern of solar x-ray flux is very rare. I can't remember seeing three stacked curves like this.

Maybe with everyone looking from their own perspective we may get a better idea of what exactly causes the bell shaped curve in the solar x-ray flux. 

[Drax Spacex]

The first 2 of these bell curves are likely the two long duration
C class X-ray events behind the east limb noted in the SWPC
Forecast Discussion.

Typically the distribution of a long duration flare seen on the
solar disk will have a sharp rise and a long tail (as in a Weibull
distribution gamma=2).

I suspect the high-alitude flux loops for these C class X-ray events
were registering in the measured X-Ray flux as the dominant component
(since we can't yet see the surface feature of the flare). This created
a broadening of the rise time, hence a bell curve.

In my limited experience I have seen clues of what might become an X flare:
A trending rising X-Ray Flux with significant scintillation (jaggedness)
superimposed upon periods of rise and decay. Almost like an orchestral
crescendo/decrescendo/crescendo cycle leading to the inevitable climactic
timpani roll and cymbal crash.

:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2022 Apr 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Solar Activity .24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare observed from beyond
the ENE limb at approximately 15/1101 UTC. This event was still in progress
at the time of this report. This area was also responsible for a long
duration, C4 X-ray event which was observed at 15/0306 UTC. An additional
long duration (almost 5 hours) C1 X-ray event was observed at 14/1519 UTC.
The three spotted regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.
No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Drax Spacex
formatting

[HalfFeralHuman]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Can you maybe post a video?

Er... I'm not sure I'm allowed, but if you go here and select the right date and channel you'll see it: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

[MinYoongi]

34 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

Er... I'm not sure I'm allowed, but if you go here and select the right date and channel you'll see it: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

Thats a bit laborious since im not familiar with those systems but thank you anyway  

[ron]

NIce observation and interpretation of the data Aetherwizard!

[Aetherwizard]

6 hours ago, ron said:

NIce observation and interpretation of the data Aetherwizard!

I think Drax has the right interpretation. There is definitely a build up of magnetic flux, but it likely is related to the far side activity as Drax said.

[Aetherwizard]

12 hours ago, Aetherwizard said:

I think Drax has the right interpretation. There is definitely a build up of magnetic flux, but it likely is related to the far side activity as Drax said.

Nonetheless, a weak X-class flare came within 48 hours. Maybe there will be more to come?

[MinYoongi]

Im sorry but I do not think its related. I dont believe its that easily predictable.

3 hours ago, Aetherwizard said:

Nonetheless, a weak X-class flare came within 48 hours. Maybe there will be more to come?

 

[ron]

Rather than dismiss it because you don't agree, you should observe it to see if there is a correlation. Science is not built on "feelings."

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, ron said:

Rather than dismiss it because you don't agree, you should observe it to see if there is a correlation. Science is not built on "feelings."

Science is way more than some coincidental stuff happening too.

[ron]

Absolutely!!!! The patterns of the universe have been studied for eons! And they are still learning stuff everyday! But science requires a steadfast determination and a dedication few can master as the requirements demand more than most can supply. Who said: " Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration?" Genius is attainable by anyone willing to put in the effort-99% perspiration.

NEVER trust "coincidence!  Coincidence is an excuse for not going for the 99% perspiration!

[Aetherwizard]

After the bell curves, the baseline of the solar X-ray output rose to about C1 and has since remained at that level. Furthermore, the solar X-ray emissions then took upon a fairly steady sharp pulse mode. This is all part of the recurring pattern following the bell curve. It is during this "spiky" sharp pulse mode that the X-ray flares become common. 

Further still, the triggers for the largest solar X-ray bursts will occur in patterns that appear to be related to gravitational waves of distant supernovas as evidenced by gamma ray bursts. Mainstream astrophysicists do not acknowledge that certain patterns of solar X-ray bursts coincide with gamma ray bursts, but I have watched this pattern consistently repeat on a near daily basis for the past thirty years or so of data monitoring.

[Drax Spacex]

There's certainly information in the plots of X-ray flux that can be used on its own or in conjunction with sunspot group magnetic configuration analysis to determine likihood of X-flare.

Just looking at the X-ray plot, I see some common characteristics that proceeded the X2.2 flare:

1) Long duration (several days) of background X-ray flux exceeding C level.
2) Upwardly-trending (positive slope).
3) Several Strong flares (high C, M, or X) in the 24-hr period prior to X-flare.

If you were to smooth out this jagged curve (given the significant flare activity) with a running real-time filter to remove higher percentile values, you might see in the background X-ray flux interesting shapes or trends, possibly bell curves or other curve shapes with particular skewness/kurtosis.

I don't have my supernova / LIGO / gamma ray detector up and running in my home lab yet, so I can't comment with independent verification on the other

Edited April 20, 2022 by Drax Spacex
LIGO

[MinYoongi]

Sorry but this sounds so random. Its easy to call it a "prediction" but at the end of the day everyone should be aware that its not magic to "predict" an X-Class Flare with several really active/complex regions on the Map... Not prediction either that i get hungry 6 hours after eating almost everyday lol

[Drax Spacex]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Sorry but this sounds so random. Its easy to call it a "prediction" but at the end of the day everyone should be aware that its not magic to "predict" an X-Class Flare with several really active/complex regions on the Map... Not prediction either that i get hungry 6 hours after eating almost everyday lol

Even without any knowledge of what ARs are on the solar disk or their magnetic complexity, someone could look at the X-ray flux plot by itself and still make a prediction for X-flare probability.  The quality of that prediction would likely not be as good as if you also had detailed information regarding the ARs.  It's not random.  It's analytical.

[Aetherwizard]

19 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

There's certainly information in the plots of X-ray flux that can be used on its own or in conjunction with sunspot group magnetic configuration analysis to determine likihood of X-flare.

Yes, the observations you made are reflected in the historical data as well. 

As for the gravitational wave component of the X class flares, I would expect a third M8 to X1 class flare somewhere around 00:00 on 22 Apr 2022. Gamma ray bursts usually come in a very regular sequence of 3 to 5 clearly defined peaks. The GRBs are photonic wave ripples that follow longitudinal magnetic waves in the magnetic structure of space. These magnetic ripples strike the magnetic structures on the Sun and cause solar magnetic structures to temporarily collapse, which results in the strong X class flares. It is my view that the Sun is our most accurate detector of gravitational waves.

When the bell curve occurs, it is indicative of a very strong magnetic structure building up around the Sun. In the bell curve case that began about a week ago, the magnetic structure built up in a series of three steps, which as I mentioned is rare. Most of the subsequent bell curves that we will see in the coming few years will be single, and possibly double bell curves. After each bell curve, the baseline of the solar x-ray flux will increase noticeably, and remain at that level until the overall magnetic structure of the Sun relaxes again. As the magnetic structure relaxes, there will be a pronounced downward slope in the baseline of the solar x-ray flux.

The stronger the magnetic flux on the Sun becomes (and thus the greater the baseline of the solar x-ray flux) the stronger the solar x-ray flares will become. The gravitational waves that precede GRBs will then shock the strong magnetic structures and set off X class flares. Right now, the baseline is at about C1. As the baseline increases in future activity, so also will the strength of the X class flares. During solar maximum, the baseline can increase all the way up into the M8 range.

With the current baseline at C1, the solar activity is only beginning to wake up.