Kp 5?

[KW2P]

I did some planning, expecting radio conditions to be poor due to a geomag storm. It should have started hours ago but Kp index is still 1.

I'm not complaining. I plan to get on the air momentarily. But the forecast seems to have been way off target.

[MinYoongi]

Its hard to predict those glancing blows.

 

1. Its a glancing blow, not a full on hit. Could mean a full miss.

2. they only get some data at launch and then some when it arrives at DSCOVR, so its really hard to predict

 

so either its late or a miss

[Marcel de Bont]

3 options. It missed, wasn't strong enough to be detected or has yet to arrive.

Could be that it passed starting at 23 UTC and was just really weak. Just based on LASCO I wouldn't say it missed. Maybe it has yet to arrive but I suspect it arrived at 23 UTC and was just really really weak.

[lightpanther]

I thought it might have been a late arrival. Activity seems more elevated during daylight hours today, as if we're inside the back of the wave...though nothing too much to get excited about either it would seem.

Not sure if there's any hope for tonight?

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Edited April 7, 2022 by lightpanther
grammar

[KW2P]

Thanks for the replies.  I was just surprised that the NOAA 3-day forecast was so far off. Usually it's pretty spot on.

Those forecasts are not just of scientific interest or handy tools for hobbyists and aurora enthusiasts, they have real impact on affected businesses. Shortwave radio broadcasters select antenna patterns based on propagation forecasts -- which part of the world, which audiences they can reach on a certain day and time of day, which affects advertising income. Airlines that operate trans-oceanic flights choose HF frequencies and even re-route flights based on HF radio propagation forecasts. (Trans-oceanic aircraft and ships at sea have always used and still use HF SSB radio to communicate, just like ham radio operators. They operate alongside us.)  And there are many other commercial uses for HF radio, not to mention government and military uses.  So it's important that such forecasts be as accurate as possible.

[lightpanther]

NOAA tends to fall on the side of overstating the case, so that its tech customers can't say they weren't warned.

 

Annoying for aurora hunters though. It's not uncommon to be able to strip one, if not two, digits off the peak of NOAA's storm forecast.

[Sam Warfel]

spaceweather.com incorrectly said both CMEs missed, the earlier KP4, the recent KP4 and K7 on the Kiruna magnetometer was definitely caused by one of the CMEs impacting around 23:00 yesterday, and possibly another one today, but I think it was just the wake of the one late yesterday. 

They do get it wrong every so often 

[MinYoongi]

9 hours ago, Orneno said:

spaceweather.com incorrectly said both CMEs missed, the earlier KP4, the recent KP4 and K7 on the Kiruna magnetometer was definitely caused by one of the CMEs impacting around 23:00 yesterday, and possibly another one today, but I think it was just the wake of the one late yesterday. 

They do get it wrong every so often 

Yeah, in the past few months they oriented more towards sensationalism and bad research. 

Also posted a Video of the Farside CME claiming it to be earth directed, et cetera.. disappointing.

 

 

[Sam Warfel]

34 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Also posted a Video of the Farside CME claiming it to be earth directed, et cetera.. disappointing.

What day was that?

35 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Yeah, in the past few months they oriented more towards sensationalism and bad research

I still look at that page regularly, but you have to take it with a grain of salt. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

So is spaceweather.com trusted? Like should I trust it or not really? Because all of this bad news i hear from that website, makes me unsure if I should trust it. 

[Sam Warfel]

6 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

So is spaceweather.com trusted? Like should I trust it or not really? Because all of this bad news i hear from that website, makes me unsure if I should trust it. 

It’s like 90% trustable, they are usually right, but they do have a record of making wrong calls, and especially over-hyping farside hotspots that turn out to be faculae, they do that over and over 

[Solarflaretracker200]

5 minutes ago, Orneno said:

especially over-hyping farside hotspots that turn out to be faculae, they do that over and over 

Yeah I have noticed that myself several times. They get us all excited and then the 'big' sunspot comes over the sun's limb and it's really- nothing lol.